Browse by Tags

  • The Deed Is Done...

    * Adding $700 Billion to our debt... * U.S. loses 159K jobs in September! * Dollar rallies to 13-month high VS euro * Ding Dong the Carry Trade is Dead... ** The Deed Is Done... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The deed is done... The House, which had previously voted down the Bailout Package, decided to go ahead and put the country in debt by another $700 Billion... Yes, I know it the payouts will be in installments, but in my mind it was in one swoop that $700 Billion was added to our debt... And guess what? The dollar rallied on the news! More on the Bailout Package in a minute... The other thing happened on Friday was the awful Job Jamboree in which 159K jobs were reported lost by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) during September. The job losses were all over the place led by job losses in Manufacturing. And guess what? The dollar rallied on the news!...
  • Wooden Arrows?

    * A euro revelation! * House to vote on Bailout... * Yen remains strong... * Jobs Jamboree Friday! ** Wooden Arrows? Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastic Friday, I hope! As the blind man said, as he spit into the wind... It's all coming back to me now... And so it was yesterday morning after I had hit the send button for the Pfennig, a trader friend called to give me some insight, and... After talking to him, it all came back to me now... What the heck is he talking about now? I hear you asking... Well, recall how I and probably all of you too, have been scratching my head and wondering just how in the world the dollar could be rallying in the face of all that's going on, and the bad data to boot. Well, here it is folks, sit back and take a sip of coffee......
  • Senate Passes The Bailout Package!

    * Euro falls to 1-year low.... * Bailing out foreign investors? * O'Neill has a better plan... * ISM collapses! But the dollar rallies... ** Senate Passes The Bailout Package! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Rocktober started off with a bang for the dollar, as the green/peachback continued to gain VS the euro and other currencies, pushing the euro to a one-year low VS the dollar. We all sat here and shook our heads in disbelief yesterday, as the U.S. ISM Index (manufacturing) collapsed in September, but the dollar rallied anyway. The ISM Index fell from 49 to 43.5, the lowest print since Rocktober 2001, which happened to be near the end of the 2001 recession and right after the awful period following 9/11. So... To me... This really paints the recession picture clear and bright for all to see... So, why did the dollar rally with this albatross around its neck?...
  • The Bailout Lives!

    * The Senate to the rescue? * Dollar rallies big time... * Rumor day... * Consumer Confidence stronger? ** The Bailout Lives! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Welcome to October! Or as we say in St. Louis... Rocktober! September went by in a flash, let's hope Rocktober slows down a bit! Well... Monday we had carnage in stocks, and yesterday in currencies, while stocks rebounded. What a difference a day makes! On Monday, the House voted down the Bailout package (doesn't it just get your goat that it's still being referred to as the "rescue plan"?), and yesterday, seeing the collateral damage caused by the "no" vote, Congress decided to try and rescue the bailout plan....
  • King Henry Was Wrong Again!

    * Bailout package is voted down! * Biggest one day point drop for the DOW! * Dollar rallies hard... * Carry trades unwind... Again! ** King Henry Was Wrong Again! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... Guess who was wrong AGAIN! That's right, King Henry Paulson, he of the U.S. Treasury Sec. throne... He told the world on Friday, that the bailout package was a "done deal"... And he told us again on Sunday that it was a "done deal"... The markets rejoiced, the stock jockeys danced in the streets, the karma flowed and all the stars were in alignment... And then... A (not so) funny thing happened on the way to the forum... King Henry's men revolted, and the bailout package did NOT have the votes to pass it, and the "done deal" was "undone"! Once again this man has led investors down the wrong path. I've documented the wrong statements by this man in the past year, and still, investors hang on every word by King Henry... When will they ever learn? When, will, they, ev-er learn?...
  • Cash For Trash...

    * Grave words about the economy... * OPEC warns of a higher Oil prices... * FDIC in need of $150 Billion? * Citigroup calling for a higher euro... ** Cash For Trash... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... The President sure painted a rosy picture for the U.S. economy last night didn't he? NOT! Whoa there partner! With words like 'collapse' and 'danger' and 'panic', President Bush was telling the country that we're in deep dookie! In telling the public that the government must put $700 Billion of taxpayer's money at risk to bail out the financial system, he said... 'We're in the midst of a serious financial crisis. Our entire economy is in danger. America could slip into a financial panic.' Now... Those are some serious statements, folks... And were followed up by the comments by the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Barney Frank, who said, 'Whatever you think about whether or not there was a need for a bailout... Once the president, secretary of the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve Chairman have announced that if you don't do this, there will be a collapse, there's probably going to be a collapse if you don't do it.'...
  • Turning Japanese?

    * Profit taking in the currencies... * German Business Confidence falls... * More talk of the bailout package... * A strong statement on Aussie dollars... ** Turning Japanese? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another crazy day not only in the markets but on our trading desk, where the phones continue to light up. There's a ton of volatility in the markets these days, as witnessed by the roller coaster ride stock jockeys take every day, the no direction is a good direction course of currencies, and the ups and downs of bailout plans. It's all a little too much for yours truly some days, but I carry on... Take this morning... Please somebody take this morning! The euro was showing signs of wiping out yesterday's profit taking session early on, only to see its gains wiped out by a weaker than expected German Business Confidence report. Yes, German Business Confidence, as measured by the think tank, IFO, declined more than expected this month, to the lowest level in almost 3 years. I would say that with lower Oil prices, and weaker inflation, these German Business people's attitudes will be changing soon... The German economy, other than this report, is showing signs of strength, which is bang on what I've been trying to tell everyone that was throwing darts at the Eurozone economy... Remember 80% of trade in the Eurozone is among the Eurozone members......
  • Some Healing...

    * largest one-day move up in the euro! * largest one-day move up in Oil! * Gold and Silver rebound! * Renminbi finally moves! ** Some Healing... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I heard from one of my two sisters that live in the Houston area yesterday. They rode out the Hurricane together, have some damage to her house, and is still without electricity. I can't imagine what that's all like. But they are both safe at that's what's important at this point. Well... The euro had it's largest one-day move upward VS the dollar since its inception in 1999, yesterday... We've seen some profit taking in the overnight markets, but just for good measure... I think it appropriate to show that the euro reached 1.48 yesterday... That was a 3.5 euro move, and after falling to a low of 1.3869 on 9/12 (before bouncing big that day), the euro has now recovered about 7%... I would call that "some healing"......
  • Goldman and Morgan Stanley Are Now Banks!

    * Currencies see some healing... * $1 Trillion and counting... * Gold and Silver rebound! * The Currency Capitalist... ** Goldman and Morgan Stanley Are Now Banks! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Someone along the road last week stopped by to tell me that I was too "Cheery" each morning with my salutations! He laughed, because of course he was kidding... But as I told him... If you're told what I was told last summer, each and every day is a day to be cheery about, no matter what's going on in the markets! Well... That was quite the trip last week, 3 cities in one week... In October I do 5 cities in 10 days... And then of course we had the goings on of last week... I really was upset and angry last week when I sent those notes to Chris for Friday's Pfennig. Our Gov't has spent 100's of Billions of dollars, and looking to spend more to avert a crisis... Yes, it was a Crisis, and something had to be done, but the way we did it, wreaks of socialism... My good friend, John Mauldin, whom I spent some time with last Friday, said, "I would sure like to see some regulation in Credit Default Swaps for all the money we spent!"...
  • Credit Woes Sink The Dollar!

    * No Bailout for Freddie and Fannie... * The euro reaches a new record high! * More risk today... * Aussie hits 25-year high! ** Credit Woes Sink The Dollar! Good day... And a Tip Top Tuesday to you! I thought I would change it up there today... Well... Overnight, we've seen the euro reach a new record high VS the dollar, only to give some of that ground gained back on some weak German data. There was more news yesterday regarding the Freddie and Fannie saga, but I've grown tired of that talk, we dance now! Seriously, though, I have grown tired of all that Freddie and Fannie talk, that I'm going to go through an exercise explaining what GSE's are and then go on with life... So... The euro reached a new record high overnight of 1.6038! WOW! This was reached based on the fears that credit problems in the U.S. are going to put the kyboshes on what little economic growth we now have. But the shine on the euro was rubbed out by a very weak ZEW... German Investor Confidence as measured by the think tank, ZEW, fell to a record low this month on the surging inflation problems, and rising interest rates. So for now, the euro is back below 1.60, but hear me now and listen to me later... This ZEW will soon be in the rear view mirror, and the euro won't have that albatross around its neck as it revisits its overnight high....