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  • Global Growth Takes A Hit!

    In This Issue..

    * Back to the 'safe haven' trades...
    * The dollar hammers the euro!
    * ECB & BOE meet today...
    * Brazilian games with the real...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! On one hand it's tub Thumpin' because I'm here in what was sunny Florida yesterday... And on the other hand, it's not tub Thumpin' because I'm here in Florida! Yeah, writing on the road is not one of my fave things to do, but I'll struggle through it...

    Well... The news that Chris brought to you yesterday, regarding the mini-rally in the currencies, led by the euro climbing back to 1.40, was completely washed out by the time the wheels on his plane touched down here in Orlando yesterday afternoon. Chris had said as he signed off that the dollar was being bought right then, and he was right... And that buying of the dollar lasted all day!...
  • A Loss Of Confidence In the U.S.?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * Euros and Aussie dollars lead the pack...
    * $1.42 Trillion Deficit for 2009!
    * TIC's data gets ignored again!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Another 'lost' weekend for our college and professional football teams! UGH! The sun finally came out this weekend. YAHOO! It felt so good to be in the sun again... The TICs data was something that needed to be dealt with on Friday, but once again the markets ignored it... I'm telling you, this smells like, walks like, and talks like a gag order... OK... Let's get going this Marvelous Monday!

    The non-dollar currencies all drifted on Friday, with the dollar seeing a bit of buying... But that's all been thrown to the curb this morning, as the non-dollar currencies, for the most part, are in rally mode VS the dollar.

    ...
  • Desperately Seeking Yield...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally...
    * More on the BRIC's...
    * New Zealand's GDP contracts..
    * Bernanke gets grilled!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The end of what seemed to be a very long week... The last weekend in June, can you believe that? Next week, we'll be getting ready for the 4th of July celebrations! WOW!

    Well... What a volatile week it has been in the currencies! Up, down, all around, and settling back to levels that we saw before the Fed's FOMC meeting earlier this week. Suddenly, investors are looking for yield again... Looks like they are "Desperately Seeking (not Susan) Yield! And why not? The Fed, and the Bank of Canada (BOC) have come out and said that there will be no interest rate hikes until we've turned quite a few pages on the 2010 calendar....
  • Senate Passes The Bailout Package!

    * Euro falls to 1-year low.... * Bailing out foreign investors? * O'Neill has a better plan... * ISM collapses! But the dollar rallies... ** Senate Passes The Bailout Package! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Rocktober started off with a bang for the dollar, as the green/peachback continued to gain VS the euro and other currencies, pushing the euro to a one-year low VS the dollar. We all sat here and shook our heads in disbelief yesterday, as the U.S. ISM Index (manufacturing) collapsed in September, but the dollar rallied anyway. The ISM Index fell from 49 to 43.5, the lowest print since Rocktober 2001, which happened to be near the end of the 2001 recession and right after the awful period following 9/11. So... To me... This really paints the recession picture clear and bright for all to see... So, why did the dollar rally with this albatross around its neck?...
  • Export Growth Drives GDP!

    * GDP grows 3.3%! * But it's a one and done for GDP! * Plenty O' data today... * A Wall Street Journal interview... ** Export Growth Drives GDP! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday in my books because it will be the end of a bad week for yours truly, and the start of a 3-day Labor Day Holiday weekend! YAHOO! Another storm, Gustav, is headed for the Gulf Coast, and maybe Louisiana, which wouldn't be good. So my thoughts are with those in the path of Gustav. Gustav is causing some problems for the price of Oil, this bubblin' crude, black gold, Texas tea, has posted its weekly gain in two months! The rise in Oil prices has lit a fire under Gold, and put pressure on the dollar once again, along with inflation pressures to say the least! The dollar pushed the euro and other currencies lower yesterday after the 2nd QTR GDP surprised on the upside, posting a gain of 3.3% annualized... I told you twice this week that 2nd QTR GDP would be stronger and yesterday, I laid out the scenario that the boost would come from: 1. stimulus checks, and 2. export growth because of the weak dollar....
  • US$ saved by oil...

    * US$ saved by oil... * US Recession? (not according to Paulson)... * New Zealand worst performer in July... * Big Mac Index says buy Asia... ** US$ saved by oil... Good day...And welcome to August. The markets had a little more movement yesterday as the US GDP report came in lower than expected, and had a hidden surprise for dollar bears (more on that later). In addition to the poor GDP numbers, Personal consumption dropped and the GDP Price Index also showed a decrease. The employment cost index was flat, and the weekly jobless claims were slightly higher than expected at 448k. More Americans filed initial unemployment claims last week than at any time in more than five years. The only positive piece of data released in the US yesterday was the volatile (and somewhat unreliable) Chicago Purchasing Managers number which showed an increase back above 50. With all the bad data, the dollar sold off rather sharply and the Euro jumped a full cent to trade over 1.57 for a short while. But the dollar bears didn't celebrate for long, as the dollar sharply reversed course as crude oil prices rode to its rescue. As I explained earlier in the week, the price of crude oil and the US$ have had a very tight relationship lately, with a correlation of .9. Just after the dollar fell due to the GDP releases, crude oil began a sharp $3 drop and saved the US$ from further losses. The price of oil has continued to slide, and is now down over 11% in the past month. This has helped prop the dollar up in spite of a number of poor economic reports here in the US....
  • On The Soapbox Again...

    * Euro loses 1 1/2-cents... * Currencies get taken to the woodshed... * Bernanke joins Paulson, but why? * A China comment explanation......
  • A Dollar Rout...

    * Euro hits 1.51! * Bernanke disses the economy... * Greenspan disses the dollar... * Charts say we're in recession......