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  • Jobs Jamboree Disappoints... AGAIN!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on Friday...

    * But show some slippage this morning...

    * FOMC week, will they announce more stimulus?

    * Norwegian krone is best monthly performer!

    And Now... Today's Pfennig!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well... I'm Baaaaaacccckkkkk! What a great vacation! Any time I get to spend time with my family, is special... And to do when you're camping... Well, if you've ever done that with your family, you know what I'm talking about... And talk about being "away from the markets"...

    So... Yesterday, I got all caught up with what Chris had to say last week, and let me stop here to say a BIG Thank You to Chris, for taking the conn on the Pfennig last week... A great job as usual! Chris did leave me a few notes on the Friday happenings and that helped me get the "motor" started to write this morning!

    ...
  • Heeeeeeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk...

    In This Issue..

    * A strong currency move on Friday...
    * Data Cupboard gets a work out this week...
    * U.K. and ECB meet this week...
    * RBA to move to neutral tonight?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Heeeeeeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk... Oh no! Just when you thought it was safe to open the Daily Pfennig and not get lectured on deficit spending... He's back! Oh well, It's been over two weeks, first to Vancouver, then on vacation. We've got a lot of catching up to do, eh? Mike and Chris did a Fantastico job of taking the conn on the Pfennig in my absence... So thanks to them... But it's back to me, and besides a couple of days in San Francisco later this month, I'm all yours! (I bet that just makes you smile like a Cheshire Cat... NOT!)

    OK... Rather than beat around the bush this morning, Chris left me this note from Friday's price action, so let's go to the Friday round up and then onto today! Here's Chris!...
  • Home sales improve...

    In This Issue..

    * Home sales improve...
    * Are we there yet...
    * Intervention talks...
    * Buying on dips...

    Good day...and a Fabulous Friday to you. As I was sitting here this morning collecting my thoughts, it just hit me like a ton of bricks that we're already towards the end of July and next weekend brings us into August...where's the pause button when you need it. Anyway, yesterday started out like any other quiet morning so far this week but we did see a nice little run in the currencies only to see profit taking as we moved into the late afternoon. As I turned the computer screens on this morning, I see where the overnight markets brought us right back up to the levels we began with this time yesterday. The big story that moved the markets was the better than expected housing numbers that, again, gave investors that warm and fuzzy feeling that I touched on yesterday. Since I already let the cat out of the bag, I'll jump right in...

    ...
  • He Said What?

    In This Issue..

    * Foreclosures rise...
    * Green Shoots, no so green!
    * getting on a bus...
    * Losing a triple A rating?

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Not wanting to start the day off with bad news... But I just saw a flash on the TV that said, 'foreclosures jumped 32% last month'... More Blood in the Streets, eh? That just happens to be the title of my presentation today... Blood in the Street: Bargain time or just a cease fire? Hey! I don't make these things up...

    OK... Another day here in Sin City... This city is packed with people, everywhere we go, it's simply amazing... There's been no sign of a recession here... Of course, if you got out of the casinos, and shows, you would see some of the greatest devastation any where in the housing market here... So.. It's not a seashells and balloons in Vegas... I guess with the economy so rotten, people are hoping to strike it rich in the casinos though... Hmmm, have they not figured out that these ginormous buildings are here to make money?...
  • A Jobs Jamboree for Friday, May 8th!

    In This Issue..

    * Stress tests finally print!
    * The Gov't wants you to 'feel good'...
    * Job losses decline on a weekly basis...
    * Happy Mother's Day!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Let's make it a Fantastico Friday, eh? Why not! It's the Friday to kick off Mother's Day weekend! More on that later, but first, let's talk about the Stress Tests. Personally I could just as easily forget about them, because as I've said over and over again, The Gov't wasn't going to 'spook' the markets with 'true results'... This whole "exercise" is a just another effort to make us all 'feel good'...

    OK, the rumor mill has finally been shut down, and the facts, as the Gov't would let us know them to be, are out... Let's take a gander at the results!...
  • Dollar falls as US consumer confidence increases...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar falls as US consumers become more positive...
    * GDP to be reported this morning...
    * European confidence increases...
    * Mexican peso recovers...

    Good day... Hopefully this will reach everyone today. We have been having some computer problems causing some major delays in the delivery of your Pfennig. As Chuck always says, if you need your Pfennig, just go to www.dailypfennig.com where it is posted each morning as soon as I hit the send button. For those of you who feel the need, the website also has an archive, so you can all read what I had to say yesterday. But enough about our email problems, you all want to know what is happening in the markets.

    The dollar began the day trading in a fairly tight range, but a fairly large jump in US consumer confidence sent the US$ tumbling. Yes, the old 'opposite' trading pattern has begun again. When we have good news regarding the US and global economies, the US$ gets sold. But when the data is bad, the dollar is purchased as a safe haven. Yesterday both pieces of data released in the US were more positive than most economists expected, so the dollar gave back some of its recent 'safe haven' gains....
  • It’s a Jobs Jamboree Friday!

    * BOE cuts 50 BPS... * ECB keeps rates unchanged... * Initial Jobless claims hit a record! * Recession or Depression? ** Jobs Jamboree Friday! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, and Jobs Jamboree Friday to boot! You should have seen the crowd that gathered for my second presentation yesterday... WOW! Jason tells me that he had to turn away about 50 people that couldn't jam into the room! I guess people are still interested in what I have to say... Either that or, no one else was speaking at that time! HA! Another very tight trading range for the currencies yesterday, with a bias to buy dollars... And for once this bias to buy dollars didn't include buying Japanese yen, as yen fell 2 whole figures yesterday! You have to wonder if the words coming out of Capitol Hill that they will vote on the Stimulus package soon, has the risk takers dipping their toes back into Carry Trades, for yen is weaker and the Aussie dollar (a high yielder, even in today's zero rate environment) is stronger... It's not just a co-in-que-dink!...
  • Talking Stimulus...

    * A very tight range for currencies... * RBA cuts rates to historic low! * Spending that doesn't create jobs... * Gold see profit taking... ** Talking Stimulus... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! On the road again, I just can't wait to get on the road again... Yes, all my bags are packed and I'm ready to go! Won't be back until late Saturday night, and back in the saddle next Monday. And I'm leaving just in time, as yet another cold front has moved into St. Louis! UGH! Well... Let's see... What to talk about today? I could talk about the Aussie rate cut and stimulus package... I could talk about the "new and improved" stimulus package and all the "non-stimulus spending attached to it... I could talk about how it sure seems as though the euro, and then the other currencies, are taking their cues to rally from equities... Now, this is certainly a short term phenomenon because we all know that currencies have different pricing mechanisms than stocks, and a very low correlation to stocks, which is why they make excellent diversification assets, along with Gold and Silver....
  • A Jobs Disaster!

    * Retail Jobs are cut in December! * Dollar rallies on renewed Trading Theme... * Looking for the Obama bounce... * High yielders get sold... ** A Jobs Disaster! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A grand weekend for yours truly with time spent resting, watching football, Alex play basketball, dinner with friends, and finally a wonderful dinner with my kids as we celebrated my oldest son, Andrew's, birthday. Whew! I'm at work about an hour earlier than usual this morning, as I couldn't sleep, and just decided to get up and come in... UGH! OK... Well, the big news this morning, is that the Jobs Jamboree was just awful, but "not as bad as some forecast" and therefore the dollar rallied. OK, I'm shaking my head in disgust too, but that's what the headlines reported later in the day on Friday, as the reason for the dollar rally. But let's get to the meat of the Jobs report... First of all, jobs lost in December were -525K, which was bang on the forecasts. But here's the two things I found to be very scary in the report... First of all, November's awful print of -533K was revised downward to -584K (recall, I questioned a month ago if it would reach -600K on the revision)... And here's the really scary number... -67K Retail jobs were cut in December... That's right, December! The month when retailers are supposed to be on fire!...
  • The NBER Finally Says So!

    * RBA cuts 100 BPS... * It IS a recession! * Paulson to ruffle feathers? * Yen to rally hard? ** The NBER Finally Says So! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Quoting one of my all time fave Christmas songs, Baby, it's Cold Out There! Winter has arrived, and I had to drag out the big heavy winter coat this morning. So... The seasons pass us, which is a good thing, because without winter, we couldn't have spring, and spring training! OK... Right out of the starters blocks this morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pulled the rug right out from under the "high yield status" of their economy, with another HUGE rate cut overnight... This time, the RBA cut 100 BPS, to an internal cash rate of 4.25%. This brings the total since September to 300 BPS! WOW! Talk about effectively unwinding seven years of tightening! The statement following the rate announcement leads me to believe that the RBA is probably finished cutting rates for now... It will be a wait-n-see what happens globally, before the RBA entertains any talk of further rate cuts... At least that's my opinion!...
  • Comfortably Numb...

    * Comfortably numb... * Data confirms the US slowdown... * NZD and AUD end the week with gains... * Hungarian forint stabilizes... ** Comfortably numb... Good day...These dramatic swings in the markets are becoming so common place that a move of 400 pts by the Dow doesn't really garner much notice. After all, in the past five days, the Dow Jones average has had a trading range of almost 2,000 points, but after five dramatic days the stock market is trading almost exactly where it was a week ago. And the volatility in the equity markets has carried over to the currency markets, where we continued the roller coaster ride which began a few weeks ago. Yesterday, the dollar began the day with a strong move up in early European trading. But a plethora of bad data released here in the US caused the greenback to reverse course, and it wiped out all of its earlier gains. But the bargain hunting rally in the stock market during the afternoon pulled the dollar along with it, and we ended the day with a dollar index which was slightly higher than the day before. Today is shaping up to be a similar trading pattern, as Europe has begun the day buying dollars vs. most of the major currencies....