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  • Spending More Than We (the U.S.) Make...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range
    * Pesos, loonies and reals in the spotlight...
    * The Mogambo on a Thursday! YAHOO!
    * Jobs reports dominate today & tomorrow...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Once again yesterday, we traded all day in a very tight range with the currencies. The ADP/Challenger data didn't give anyone a warm and fuzzy about the labor picture, and tax receipts are in the news... So, let's go to the tape!

    OK, front and center this morning, I have to talk about this deal with tax receipts in this country. So, I've chronicled the April and June debacles for tax receipts, but just in case someone is new to class, and missed that, let's review... The U.S. used to count on the months of April and June for HUGE cash receipts from tax returns, but this year, both April and June's tax receipts were so bad, the expenditures were greater than the receipts! I highlight these two months because, they should have been positive months for the budget balance... If we can't post a positive balance in April and June, what's the rest of the year going to look like?

    ...
  • Dollar falls as US consumer confidence increases...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar falls as US consumers become more positive...
    * GDP to be reported this morning...
    * European confidence increases...
    * Mexican peso recovers...

    Good day... Hopefully this will reach everyone today. We have been having some computer problems causing some major delays in the delivery of your Pfennig. As Chuck always says, if you need your Pfennig, just go to www.dailypfennig.com where it is posted each morning as soon as I hit the send button. For those of you who feel the need, the website also has an archive, so you can all read what I had to say yesterday. But enough about our email problems, you all want to know what is happening in the markets.

    The dollar began the day trading in a fairly tight range, but a fairly large jump in US consumer confidence sent the US$ tumbling. Yes, the old 'opposite' trading pattern has begun again. When we have good news regarding the US and global economies, the US$ gets sold. But when the data is bad, the dollar is purchased as a safe haven. Yesterday both pieces of data released in the US were more positive than most economists expected, so the dollar gave back some of its recent 'safe haven' gains....