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Have You Seen This?

Have You Seen This?

  • Jobless recovery?? Not going to happen....

    In This Issue..

    * Leading indicators up, but employment down...
    * 11 million new jobs in China...
    * Pound sterling gets pounded...
    * A Great Day for EverBank...

    Good day...and happy Friday! It has been a fairly busy week here at EverBank, with the issuance of another big BRIC MarketSafe CD, the maturity of another MarketSafe, and a big acquisition (more on that later). While things were a bit crazy at EverBank, the currency markets were fairly uneventful. The dollar started the day off with a move up after a positive report on US leading indicators, but it gave back most of the gains as the trading day wore on. At the end of the day, only one currency moved more than 1% vs. the greenback, with the pound sterling dropping almost 1.5%.

    ...
  • Fundamentals Return...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies & Gold move together!
    * Fed downgrades economic growth...
    * More on China...
    * Yen breaks the trading pattern...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' here, as the warm winds of spring have finally sprung, the Cardinals have won two in a row from the rival Cubs, and I'm headed to Busch Stadium tonight! Oh! And fundamentals, as far as currencies and metals are concerned, seemed to be in place yesterday...

    That's right... The rout on the dollar was on (recall yesterday, Wayne and Garth playing street hockey... Game On!) and this time... Not only did the currencies rally VS the dollar, Gold and Silver took part in the proceedings too! It's been a long time since we've seen this happen... For the most part, whenever the currencies (minus yen) rallied, Gold would back off, and vice versa... Not yesterday! For the first time in a long time, the negativity toward the dollar was front and center BIG TIME!...
  • A Trading Pattern For Gold...

    * The currencies rally back! * The risk takers are back! * Mixed bag of economic reports... * A 'cross thing' for sterling... ** A Trading Pattern For Gold... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! No ice this morning, thank goodness! Winter, in my mind, is bad enough without the slip-sliding away! Snow is one thing, ice is another and it's not high on my Hit Parade! Well, front and center this morning is a rally in the currencies that began yesterday mid-morning, and has carried through the Asian and European markets. I'd tell you why the euro is 2.5 figures above yesterday morning's level, but you'd laugh at me... No wait! That's what you're supposed to do, Chuck, tell the people what's going on! HA! Seriously though... I don't think you'd laugh at me, maybe the dolts that run trading floors around the world, or the pundits that write stories about the markets, but not me!...
  • The NBER Finally Says So!

    * RBA cuts 100 BPS... * It IS a recession! * Paulson to ruffle feathers? * Yen to rally hard? ** The NBER Finally Says So! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Quoting one of my all time fave Christmas songs, Baby, it's Cold Out There! Winter has arrived, and I had to drag out the big heavy winter coat this morning. So... The seasons pass us, which is a good thing, because without winter, we couldn't have spring, and spring training! OK... Right out of the starters blocks this morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pulled the rug right out from under the "high yield status" of their economy, with another HUGE rate cut overnight... This time, the RBA cut 100 BPS, to an internal cash rate of 4.25%. This brings the total since September to 300 BPS! WOW! Talk about effectively unwinding seven years of tightening! The statement following the rate announcement leads me to believe that the RBA is probably finished cutting rates for now... It will be a wait-n-see what happens globally, before the RBA entertains any talk of further rate cuts... At least that's my opinion!...
  • SNB Cut Rates 100 BPS!

    * Trading Theme returns... * Automakers' bailout vote today... * Not using all your arrows... * Housing Starts go back to 1959! ** SNB Cut Rates 100 BPS! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's a short week for me, so this IS a Tub Thumpin' Thursday! I head to Florida tomorrow, and I'm ready! After last week, and the cold that's set in here, I'm ready! Too bad I'll be working about 1/2 the time! But, I'm not complainin'! OK... Whew! What an awful day yesterday for the currencies... In the morning, they ere in rally mode with the euro gaining ground to well within the 1.27 handle. But then the Trading Theme set in, and those gains were wiped out. The Trading Theme was set off by the awful Housing data, which reminded everyone of the deep, dark , dangerous days ahead... I bought some euros, and watched them rise, and went off to do something else... When I returned, they had fallen... UGH! The Japanese yen, however, rallied, as is the case with the Trading Theme... Risk trades get unwound, which benefits dollars, and yen. I've explained all this before, so I won't get into it again, but there's someone that has gone into the problems (credit markets and the Fed and Treasury's response to the crisis), and does a great job of telling it like it is... So, instead of hearing from me, ranting and cursing the "leaders" I'll let someone else explain it to you... This is a fellow named Ted Cook, that Ty Keough sent my way......
  • Comfortably Numb...

    * Comfortably numb... * Data confirms the US slowdown... * NZD and AUD end the week with gains... * Hungarian forint stabilizes... ** Comfortably numb... Good day...These dramatic swings in the markets are becoming so common place that a move of 400 pts by the Dow doesn't really garner much notice. After all, in the past five days, the Dow Jones average has had a trading range of almost 2,000 points, but after five dramatic days the stock market is trading almost exactly where it was a week ago. And the volatility in the equity markets has carried over to the currency markets, where we continued the roller coaster ride which began a few weeks ago. Yesterday, the dollar began the day with a strong move up in early European trading. But a plethora of bad data released here in the US caused the greenback to reverse course, and it wiped out all of its earlier gains. But the bargain hunting rally in the stock market during the afternoon pulled the dollar along with it, and we ended the day with a dollar index which was slightly higher than the day before. Today is shaping up to be a similar trading pattern, as Europe has begun the day buying dollars vs. most of the major currencies....
  • Trichet "Gets The Memo"

    * ECB raises interest rates... * More jobs losses in June! * An embarrassment for the Fed... * Buying opportunities? ** Trichet "Gets The Memo" Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a fabuloso 3-day Holiday weekend! WOW! The weather was great, I relaxed max time, and shot off some fireworks just to keep the tradition going... The weekend was working hard to make me forget the happenings of Thursday... The Perfect Storm that was possible for the dollar turned out to see the tables turned and it was the euro that went into a tailspin on Thursday... Here's the skinny......
  • Paulson Speaks With A "Double Tongue"

    * The U.S. economy in a wreck! * More problems to come... * Funky accounting at the Fed... * SNB leaves rates unchanged... **Paulson Speaks With A "Double Tongue" - Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I was alone last night, and decided to write... Oh Boy! Are you, dear reader, in trouble when I begin writing at night for the next morning! My Cardinals were losing again, so my attention turned to putting down all these thoughts that keep coming into my head... Like Michael Keaton in Night Shift (what a great movie!) I need a recorder to put all these thoughts down... Like... Feed the mayo to the tuna! OK... Front and Center this morning, the euro's rally that went on all day yesterday and into the early Asian session (all the way to 1.5580) ended this morning... Someone, somewhere decided that the U.S. will be able to squeeze by this slowdown... Unfortunately, I don't agree! I see the U.S. being involved with the multi-car accident on the highway... But as Pfennig readers you already know that... However, instead of just hearing from me all the time about this meltdown of the U.S. economy, let's hear from an organization that tracks these things......
  • FOMC Minutes Point To Problems...

    * Questioning the Fed's moves... * Euros slow down... * Aussie hits 25-year high... * Oil hits $135!...
  • Cinco de Mayo!

    * Jobs fall -20K... * But dollar bulls celebrate! * Carry Trades hurting yen and francs again... * ECB to leave rates unchanged......
  • Back To Work After A Nice Holiday Weekend...

    * A quiet Good Friday... * This week's data... * G7 intervention speculation... * Asian diversification......