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  • The NBER Finally Says So!

    * RBA cuts 100 BPS... * It IS a recession! * Paulson to ruffle feathers? * Yen to rally hard? ** The NBER Finally Says So! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Quoting one of my all time fave Christmas songs, Baby, it's Cold Out There! Winter has arrived, and I had to drag out the big heavy winter coat this morning. So... The seasons pass us, which is a good thing, because without winter, we couldn't have spring, and spring training! OK... Right out of the starters blocks this morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pulled the rug right out from under the "high yield status" of their economy, with another HUGE rate cut overnight... This time, the RBA cut 100 BPS, to an internal cash rate of 4.25%. This brings the total since September to 300 BPS! WOW! Talk about effectively unwinding seven years of tightening! The statement following the rate announcement leads me to believe that the RBA is probably finished cutting rates for now... It will be a wait-n-see what happens globally, before the RBA entertains any talk of further rate cuts... At least that's my opinion!...
  • SNB Cut Rates 100 BPS!

    * Trading Theme returns... * Automakers' bailout vote today... * Not using all your arrows... * Housing Starts go back to 1959! ** SNB Cut Rates 100 BPS! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's a short week for me, so this IS a Tub Thumpin' Thursday! I head to Florida tomorrow, and I'm ready! After last week, and the cold that's set in here, I'm ready! Too bad I'll be working about 1/2 the time! But, I'm not complainin'! OK... Whew! What an awful day yesterday for the currencies... In the morning, they ere in rally mode with the euro gaining ground to well within the 1.27 handle. But then the Trading Theme set in, and those gains were wiped out. The Trading Theme was set off by the awful Housing data, which reminded everyone of the deep, dark , dangerous days ahead... I bought some euros, and watched them rise, and went off to do something else... When I returned, they had fallen... UGH! The Japanese yen, however, rallied, as is the case with the Trading Theme... Risk trades get unwound, which benefits dollars, and yen. I've explained all this before, so I won't get into it again, but there's someone that has gone into the problems (credit markets and the Fed and Treasury's response to the crisis), and does a great job of telling it like it is... So, instead of hearing from me, ranting and cursing the "leaders" I'll let someone else explain it to you... This is a fellow named Ted Cook, that Ty Keough sent my way......