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  • Game off for risk trades...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar hits 3 month high...
    * Norges bank raises .25%...
    * Fed repeats call to keep rates low...
    * Inflation in India rises...

    Good day...And welcome to Thursday. Chuck started his Christmas vacation, so I have the honor of bringing you the daily missive for the next week or so. The dollar continued to gain strength throughout the day as investors waited on news from the FOMC. Overnight, Greece sustained another rate cut, this time by S&P, which caused investors to move back toward the 'safety' of the US$. The news caused the dollar to rally to a 3 month high vs. the Euro and post gains across the board. The currency markets are becoming a bit volatile again, and much of this volatility can be linked back to the return of a transaction which dominated currency markets over the past decade....
  • The Bias To Buy Dollars Remains In Place...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar continues to get bought...
    * The A$ gets rocked!
    * Riksbank keeps rates unchanged...
    * 10-year yields inch higher once again...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The end of the line, so-to-speak for me until after Christmas, as I begin my winter vacation tomorrow. Yesterday, I told you about having a conversation with one of my fave economists on Monday night. Well, she told me that she was worried about me. That when she reads the Pfennig, I sound like I'm too stressed out, and taking this stuff to personally. She said she was afraid I was going to have a heart attack writing the Pfennig one day!

    WOW! OK... So here's the deal today, my last Pfennig before Christmas... I'm not going to talk about the deficit spending fools in Washington D.C., I'm not going to talk about the national debt, I'm not going to talk about anything that gets my feathers ruffled... It's all seashells and balloons for yours truly today!...
  • Consumer Confidence Drops!

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar continues to hammer!
    * Jim Rogers on the dollar rally...
    * C. Fred Bergsten talks of a dollar alternative...
    * Lord Monckton's thoughts...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! It's still raining here... Quite frankly, I don't know how people that live in rainy areas do it! I don't mind rainy days, as long as they are sprinkled in with the days of sunshine!

    Well... The dollar rally that began for a number of rumored reasons continued on yesterday... Remember when I said on Monday that the data this week should show us that the economy is healing somewhat, which would be bad for the dollar? Well, that thought got cold water thrown on it yesterday when Consumer Confidence surprisingly declined last month...

    You know how I like to question just what people that were surveyed for this Consumer Confidence report are so confident about? Well, apparently, the Conference Board surveyed the wrong people this month! Consumer confidence in the U.S. declined in October to 47.7 versus expectations of a 53.5 reading. Both consumers' perceptions of current conditions and their expectations for the future declined. Hmmm......
  • The Dollar Bounces Back!

    In This Issue..

    * Rumors kill the currency rally...
    * Risk Aversion campers return...
    * Dr. Faber with some thoughts...
    * Big Mac and the real...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The rain is back... First we had the coldest / rainiest spring I can ever recall, and then a very mild summer, now this... Cold and rain in the fall... I'd say that's climate change for you!

    Good news from the scans! By the grace of God, I sailed through the scans and tests, cancer wise... I would like to thank everyone that had me in their thoughts, and prayers... Those are powerful things, don't forget that one minute!

    OK... Well, the non-dollar currencies didn't enjoy such good news yesterday, as they got whacked a good one! After signing off yesterday, the non-dollar currencies continued to rally VS the dollar, and then the rug got pulled out from underneath them in a NY Minute! What happened? The risk assets were dropping like the Cardinals' batting averages at the end of the season... Well... Remember yesterday when I said that the data for the week looked like it might show some healing in the economy which would be bad for the dollar?...
  • A Sustainable Economic Recovery?

    In This Issue..

    * More range trading...
    * Eurozone doesn't need more stimulus...
    * A$'s outperform on rate outlook...
    * A double whammy for the dollar...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The end of another week... I was out on Monday, and it still seems to have been another long week! UGH! Oh well... It's Friday, and this weekend is Father's Day... So, we've got that going for us, eh?

    More range trading in the currencies yesterday, with the euro leading the currencies higher for most of the day, only to see their gains slip, sliding away by the late afternoon. In the overnight markets, the currencies, once again, have moved higher, but nothing to get all lathered up about......
  • Santa rally continues...

    * Santa rally continues... * Norway cuts 175 basis points... * Japanese intervention possible... * Indian rupee moves up... ** Santa rally continues... Good day... The dollar is falling much faster than it rose, the euro surged over 6 cents vs. US$ since yesterday at this time. The 5 day return chart for the major currencies vs. the US$ is pretty impressive: Swiss Franc +12.55%, Euro +9.5%, Danish Krone +9.44%, New Zealand $ +8.41%, Australian $ +5.08%, Swedish Krona +4.85%. And it continues. The past two weeks have been the most dramatic move by the dollar that I can remember. The dollar index, which tracks the US$ vs a group of major currencies is back trading right where it was at this time last year. I pulled a chart of year to date currency returns vs. the US$, and there are now 5 major currencies which have appreciated vs. the greenback: Yen +26.44%, Swiss + 8.07%, and Singapore, Danish Krone, & Euro + 1%. And with the recent big moves, our phones have been lighting up with investors moving back into currencies. I love the fact that all of these investors are diversifying, but the speed of this recent move demonstrates why we suggest keeping your investments spread across all asset classes. Trying to time into or out of a market can be frustrating, while keeping consistent asset allocations is the key....
  • Here we go again...

    * Here we go again... * US numbers show further slowdown... * Norway cuts rates... * Switzerland moves to shore up UBS... ** Here we go again... Good day...The dollar rallied and the equity markets plunged yesterday as investors again pulled their money away from the markets. As we have seen over the past several weeks, when investors get worried about the state of the global economy, they rush back into cash, and in the world of cash the US$ is still king. Chuck has been talking about this trading pattern during his FX University presentations, and I'll start this morning's Pfennig off with his thoughts from Philadelphia, where he is hosting another day of FXU: Here we go again! The recession trap door gets sprung under the stock market, and things begin to look really bad in the U.S. again, and guess what? The dollar rallies... This just plays the trading theme over and over again... And Yen? It's back below 100! Risk gets taken out, and whatever carry trades that were brave enough to go back on after Monday, have been wiped out! Wiped out like the rally in Aussie dollars, which had rallied to +70-cents after Monday... And lost 5-cents today......
  • Trade Deficit Narrows...

    * Dollar rally continues... * Be careful what you wish for! * Prime loans now in trouble... * Norges Bank to keep rates unchanged... ** Trade Deficit Narrows... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Tuesday saw more volatility in the currencies as the dollar went back in forth, but well within a trading range. The euro has melted down to the 1.49 area, where it seems to have found some breathing room. The Trade Deficit for June shrunk, but the Budget Deficit widened... Again, the fundamentals in the U.S. continue to point to recession. All this and more in today's Pfennig, so grab a cup o'java, a chair, and let's go! OK... Front and center this morning, I want to talk about the Trade Deficit, which in June showed a narrowing from $59.8 Billion to $56.8 Billion, which looks good, right? Well... As I told you in yesterday's Pfennig, you have to be careful what you wish for. This drop in the Trade Deficit pushed the dollar higher yesterday morning, and got me thinking... (I know, that could be dangerous, but stay with me here...) A stronger dollar will not play well, share toys, and keep its hands to itself, with exports... And exports have been something short of amazing with the dollar being weak. In fact, exports have accounted for the largest contribution to GDP in the past 5 quarters! (with U.S. Consumer spending drying up, this is possible!) Add to that, everyone getting goose bumps regarding a global slowdown... If the world slows down, like the dollar bulls are claiming they will, thus propping up the dollar, then U.S. exports will slow even more!...
  • More Profit Taking...

    * The Big Dog leads currencies down... * Game On for the Carry Trade again! * More rate hikes for Australia? * Norges Bank to remain on hold......