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  • A fundamental shift in currency strategy.

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar no longer being bought as safe haven...
    * Jobs data in the US will disappoint...
    * Canadian dollar gets the green light...
    * Aussie up, Kiwi down...


    Good day... Friday is finally here. This has been a pretty busy week, and from the looks of things, today is going to be just as busy. The news wires are full of stories this morning, and today is what Chuck calls 'Jobs Jamboree Friday' so we can expect some good volatility in the markets. Lots to get to this morning, so let me get right to it.

    The weekly jobs numbers released yesterday morning showed 25k more people signed up for unemployment last week than the week prior. The number of continuing claims declined slightly, but remains above 4.5 million. The data confirms what everyone outside of CNBC has been saying for quite a while, this is a 'jobless recovery' (if you can even call it a recovery!). What growth we have had has been spurred by government spending, the private sector just isn't expanding, and won't probably expand for some time....
  • Central Banks Diversify...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies soften VS the dollar...
    * Another look at Canadian job data...
    * China has Super month of exports!
    * Yen gets rocked by Upper House election...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Congratulations to Spain... The fiesta is on in Spain, as their football (soccer to us) team won the World Cup yesterday. Personally, I think Holland, got the bad end of the stick on two calls that would have turned that game their way. But, it was not to be, and Spain hoisted the cup!

    OK... Well, thanks to Chris for taking over the Pfennig on Friday. I was busy with other things for the day. I sent a note to Chris Friday morning about the Canadian Job report, and he replied that he had already written about it! WOW! Quick on the draw! He beat me to the punch... But, the report was so good it's worth talking about some more! Canadian employment skyrocketed again in June rising by 93,200, almost four times the amount expected by forecasters (+20,000). Add this to the 133,000 jobs created in April/May And you've got the ingredients for a strong quarter of job creation! The unemployment rate fell back to 7.9%, lower than forecasts for an 8.1% print.

    ...
  • Employment Disappoints...

    In This Issue..

    * Fundamentals creep back into markets...
    * Dollar gets sold...
    * RBA keeps rates unchanged...
    * U.K. makes right moves...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Did you have a grand Independence Day Holiday Weekend? I sure did! I got to see two ballgames, one very bad, one good. Spend time with the kids, friends, and relax a little... WOW! Now that I think of it, the weekend was more grand than I first thought!

    The currencies traded yesterday, but in very tight ranges, as the U.S. was on holiday. This morning, the bias is to sell dollars, much like it was on Friday before the liquidity of Europe went to the pubs... Let's go back now, and revisit Friday's action...

    Well... More proof that the double dip is coming on Friday......
  • A down day for the dollar...

    In This Issue..

    * Jobs disappoint...
    * Factory orders hold up...
    * Franc rises to record against euro...
    * Another feather in the hat for Canada...

    Good day and a Terrific Thursday to you...Its always nice to flip the calendar over to April each year, because in my book at least, this is the unofficial start of spring. We were greeted with a picture perfect day yesterday and today should be even better here in St. Louis. There's just a lot to be said about walking outside without a coat, seeing everything turning green, and hearing the birds chirp. Both Chuck and Chris and out today so I have the honor of bringing you today's Pfennig. Since I don't have any jokes to share with you on this April Fools Day, I'll get right to the meat and potatoes (which is probably a good thing since my joke telling abilities aren't exactly at par.)

    ...
  • Weekly Job Losses Continue To Pile Up!

    In This Issue..

    * Back to the 'safe haven' trades...
    * The dollar hammers the euro!
    * It's a Jobs Jamboree Friday!
    * The SNB sells francs...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's a draggin' the line Friday for me, but I'll make every attempt to turn it into a Fantastico Friday for sure! The Big Stock Sell off that I've warned about since probably June of last year, looks like it has finally arrived... Bringing with it, my biggest fears, that the link between all the risk assets, had not been broken completely, and this link has turned into a bloodletting on currencies and commodities...

    OK... So I got that out of the way, front and center this morning! You know... Ever since I began writing about a Big stock sell off, I told you that, should the link remain in place, and the currencies and commodities have adverse reactions, then we would come to the fork in the road... The people that bought currencies and commodities to keep up with their neighbors, in hopes of being able to brag about their returns at the next bar-b-que, will panic and sell, making the sell off even worse... The people that bought these risk assets for the 'right reason', which was to diversify their investment portfolios, so that not all their investments were denominated in dollars, and to provide a hedge against further potential losses by the dollar, and to reduce their overall risk for their investment portfolio, will just batten down the hatches, hunker down, and ride this out... And... If any thing, look to pick up more of these risk assets at cheaper levels as we go along......
  • 3 Million Foreclosures Forecast For 2010!

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar is in the drivers seat on rate forecasts...
    * And I'll debunk those forecasts!
    * Bernanke gets re-confirmed...
    * The PPT revisited...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fabulous Friday in my book so far... The wind is blowing so hard outside that the door to the building wouldn't open for it was opening against the wind! Have I told you all recently how much I dislike cold weather? I gotta go where it's warm! And... Hopefully I will next week, when I head to Orlando for the Money Show... Last year, it was cold there too, so I was very disappointed! But back in the day when Alex was young, we used to go early, and spend a few days at Disney World, we always had warm weather then...

    OK... Another day, another day of listening to dolts talk about rate hikes coming in the near future for the U.S. I'm going to go into the reasons, and please notice, I have an "s" at the end of reason, in a bit, for why I think these people are showing their doltness...

    ...
  • Back To the Greece Debacle...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar rallies overnight...
    * Gold loses $10...
    * Retail Sales for December are negative!
    * Chinese games with the renminbi continue...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I said on the way to work, as I hit each stop light on green, that it was going to be a Fantastico Friday! I mean, why not? 1. it's a Friday, 2. it's a payday Friday, 3. it's the start of a 3-day Holiday weekend! Shoot Rudy, I thought to myself, as I drove to work, 'nothing can spoil this day'...

    But... Then I got to work, turned on the currency screens, and it hit me like a slap in the face! The euro has led the non-dollar currencies down VS the dollar overnight... After spending 3 days this week, hovering back and forth over and under the 1.45 handle, the euro finally succumbed to some selling......
  • Jobs Losses Continue...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar gets sold...
    * China posts strong data...
    * Commodity Currencies & Commodities soar!
    * Dealing with reality...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Are you staying warm? I know it's difficult to do, given the fact that most of the country is in a deep freeze! I checked the weather at my 'fave' spring location, Jupiter Florida, and it was even 'cold' (FOR THEM) there! We're supposed to see some thawing this week, so let's hope that holds true...

    There's some thawing already going on in the currencies and commodities, thanks to a report from China yesterday... So, let's go to the tape and see what's happening this morning!

    The non-dollar currencies and commodities are flying high this morning, hammering the dollar... The Aussie & Canadian dollars are heading to parity once again, the euro is back over the 1.45 handle, and Gold is up $20! It's all good, for non-dollar investors this morning... I don't want to sound like a cheerleader, like I've been accused of being in the past, but, this is a currency / economy letter, and it's geared to non-dollar currency investors... So, take that as it may come......
  • Jobs Jamboree Is A Huge Surprise!

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar rebounds Big Time!
    * Gold loses $46 in one day!
    * High yielders give back the most...
    * Canada's Jobs rebound!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well... We're all 'moved in' to our new digs... Kudos to the planning, organizing, tech gurus, and others that were involved with this move... As it certainly looks great, and so far, is running great!

    Today is Pearl Harbor Day, our 'first' day of infamy... That certainly was a sad day in our country's history...

    Well... That long awaited, and often forgot about that it could happen, correction in the currencies and commodities came full force on Friday. The selling of the currencies and commodities and buying of dollars was reminiscent of the days following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008. The dollar index surges 1.7% on Friday... And Gold... The shiny metal suddenly became the 'not so shiny' metal, as it sold off by $46 in one day... And it hasn't stopped there either... Gold has sold off another $16 overnight to $1,143......
  • It's A Risk Off Friday...

    In This Issue..

    * It's a Risk Off day!

    * Commodity Currencies get rocked...

    * Audit the Fed Bill moves along...

    * Just keep spending money we don't have!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday in my books, as the people at the Retina Institute told me yesterday that the fluid on my eye was drying up, and almost completely gone. I told them I had not noticed any improvement in vision, and they said, 'at least it hasn't gotten worse!' And for that, I am quite thankful! So... With that news, I head into today, and believe it to be a Fantastico Friday!

    Well... In my hours on hours of waiting for the next person to look at my eye yesterday, (I think it was "train the eye doctor day" on Chuck's eye) I kept checking the currencies, and noticed that as the day went on, the non-dollar currencies were stronger, led by the Big Dog, euro... But then late last night, and I mean late last night, I checked them, and those gains had been wiped out...

    ...
  • Silence Is Golden...

    In This Issue..

    * A HUGE dollar sell off overnight...
    * BLS admits the Birth/Death model was wrong...
    * The 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall...
    * Kiwi is best performer overnight...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A Spectacular weekend, weather wise, here in the Midwest... And Indian Summer, is what my dad would have called it. The news from the Sports teams wasn't so spectacular, but we had the weather going for us!

    Welcome to Monday's edition of A Pfennig For Your Thoughts... I'll start off today with a note about the currencies, then do a recap of Friday, and then a look ahead to the rest of the week... So... Strap yourself in, and make sure to keep your arms and legs inside at all times during the ride!...
  • Dollar drifts lower....

    In This Issue...

    * Dollar drifts lower...
    * Looking for silver linings...
    * NOK to increase rates...
    * Aussie dollar continues to move up...

    Good day... And good morning to everyone. I wanted to start out this morning's Pfennig by saying my thoughts and prayers go out to all of the families of the fallen soldiers and civilian at the tragedy down at Ft. Hood. It is tough enough when we here about losses of our soldiers overseas in the 'combat zones'; but such a large loss of life right here in the US is deeply saddening.

    The dollar moved lower throughout the trading day on Thursday as investors felt more confident with the global recovery and the US stock market climbed back above 10,000. Yesterday's weekly jobs numbers were slightly better than expected, and set the market up for this mornings monthly jobs report which will probably show fewer job losses in October compared to September. But there will still be job losses, not gains; and the 'official' unemployment number will inch closer to double digits. We all know if you count those individuals who are underemployed (part time workers who would like full time jobs) and those that have given up on their job search, the actual unemployment number is more like 16%....
  • Rates To Remain Near Zero...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar reverses sell-off...
    * BOE & ECB meet today...
    * New Zealand is not Australia...
    * Funny accounting...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because it's a Thursday and it's not raining! Yay for us! Well... Not only was I wrong, but the Bloomberg Economic Calendar was wrong too... The FOMC was not a 2-day meeting after all! Just one day, so no time to pull out the board games and cards...

    I nailed that FOMC statement yesterday... WOW! You might begin to think that I have some inside info on the Fed Heads, the way I've been able to basically call every move they've made since the beginning of this whole meltdown in August of 2007! But that's not important here... The important thing is that the Fed said that economic growth is not enough to hike rates, and therefore they will keep interest rates at near zero for an 'extended period'...

    ...
  • Jobless recovery?? Not going to happen....

    In This Issue..

    * Leading indicators up, but employment down...
    * 11 million new jobs in China...
    * Pound sterling gets pounded...
    * A Great Day for EverBank...

    Good day...and happy Friday! It has been a fairly busy week here at EverBank, with the issuance of another big BRIC MarketSafe CD, the maturity of another MarketSafe, and a big acquisition (more on that later). While things were a bit crazy at EverBank, the currency markets were fairly uneventful. The dollar started the day off with a move up after a positive report on US leading indicators, but it gave back most of the gains as the trading day wore on. At the end of the day, only one currency moved more than 1% vs. the greenback, with the pound sterling dropping almost 1.5%.

    ...
  • A Jobs Jamboree for Friday 10/02/2009!

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar remains well bid...
    * G-7 to hand currencies off to G-20?
    * Car Sales collapse...
    * Auditing the Lehman cash movements...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Yesterday, I welcomed you to October. I had been prepared to tell you about a famous radio station here in St. Louis, that has long called October... Rocktober... But forgot, as usual! But anyway... It's the first Fantastico Friday of Rocktober!

    Today is a Jobs Jamboree Friday too! And... I'm not getting a good feeling about today's labor report at the Jobs Jamboree. The forecast is for jobs losses to fall from -216,000 to -175,000, but the unemployment rate to tick up to 9.8% from 9.7%... I got the feeling, baby, baby, I got the feeling... Oops, a little James Brown on Fantastico Friday never hurts! But what I was saying was I'm getting the feeling that there are risks to this forecast... And that the job losses could come in higher, which would really be a BAD thing for the recovery flag wavers and risk takers, I'm sorry to say...

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