Browse by Tags

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • I Love It When A Plan Comes Together!

    In This Issue.

    * Currencies & metals rally!

    * New Speculation adds drama to FOMC.

    * Aussie dollar hits parity!

    * New Zealand and their deficit.

    ...
  • The dollar holds on..

    In This Issue..

    * The Dollar holds on...
    * Pimco is buying Brazilian bonds...
    * Surprising data from the Economist...
    * Chuck's thoughts from Orlando...

    Good day... Chuck spent an extra day in Florida, so he stayed home to recuperate today. I made it home Saturday night, and was a bit shocked by all of the ice and snow which covered my truck at the airport. I heard so much about the winter storm which rocked the east coast that I forgot to check the weather here at home. I am a bit behind this morning, as I stayed up a bit celebrating the Saints victory with friends.

    The dollar bulls were celebrating again on Friday, as the dollar rally continued. The recent strength in the US$ will probably continue this week, as it looks like it will be fairly uneventful as far as data releases. We won't have any reports out in the US today, and tomorrow will only bring the wholesale inventory number. Wednesday we will see December's trade balance along with the monthly budget statement for January. Both of these numbers will likely reflect an ever-growing deficit here in the US, with a 50 billion dollar monthly budget deficit, and a trade deficit just below 35 billion....
  • Governor Stevens and the RBA surprises the markets...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar slides as risk returns...
    * RBA surprises the markets...
    * Gold moves higher...
    * Obama offers up record deficits...

    Good day... And a happy Ground Hog day to everyone! Yes, today is the day Phil decides if we are going to have more winter weather or a quick spring. While I can find something to like during all of the seasons, I do find myself hoping we see a quick end to the cold weather as we turn the calendar over to February. Unfortunately, the folks who make a living predicting the weather don't believe we will get an early spring this year, but their record is about as good as Groundhog Phil's, so we will just have to wait to see what Mother Nature brings us. Kristin and I will be joining Chuck down in Orlando tomorrow, so hopefully a few days of warm weather will hold me over until April....
  • German Investor Confidence Fades...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar rallies on weak German data...
    * Stronger overall data for the U.S. last week...
    * JAL files bankruptcy and yen rallies...
    * Bank of Canada meets today...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I hope you all had the opportunity to enjoy a 3-day weekend... I realize that not everyone has the opportunity, so I don't want to sound like I'm rubbing it in... It's really foggy outside this morning. I live in a little river town outside of St. Louis, and we get fog there all the time, but once I cross the river, it dissipates quickly... But not this morning, the fog was with me all the way to work! Something right out of an old-time horror movie with Lon Chaney...

    Well... Yesterday, I was doing quite a bit of reading, after suffering 'football overload', which by the way, were not very good games... Sure, good for the winning teams' fans, but I didn't have a dog in any of those fights, so I just wanted to see a good game, only to be disappointed... OK, now back to my reading...

    I was reading a good, thoughtful story about how currency swings could be dying down, as we return to fundamentals... You know, me... I jumped from my chair, and click my heels together in joy! OK, no, I'm not physically able to do that any longer, so I did it in my mind! But a return to fundamentals? I'm all over that like a cheap suit! One of the fundamentals that the story highlighted that would be taken into consideration by traders, would be interest rate differentials... Which, I've always considered to be a strong reason to own a currency, but not the 'end-all'......
  • Stocks Still Retain Some Pull...

    In This Issue..

    * Profit taking supports the dollar...
    * India posts strong data...
    * Sweden's inflation is above target...
    * Bill Gross, and Puru Saxena on a Tuesday!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! We reached the freezing mark yesterday, YAHOO! The first time this year! OK... So, we've got that going for us, here in St. Louis! A HUGE story going around St. Louis, and the country for that matter, yesterday, regarding the admission by Mark McGwire of taking steroids... Has the town buzzing... What? They didn't already have that Idea before? Hmmm...

    Well, the euphoria around the risk assets of currencies and commodities got watered down as the day went on yesterday, and that continued throughout the overnight and morning sessions in Asia and Europe. The currencies and commodities haven't turned on a dime, they just stopped moving higher VS the dollar... Although, now that I've said that, the euro has dipped below 1.45......
  • U.S. Companies To Repatriate Profits?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * More deficit spending...
    * 10-year yields at 3 month highs...
    * A nice 9-year run for the non-dollar currencies...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The last Monday of 2009! And Yes... I'm Baaaaaacccckkkkk! Bet you were wishing I would remain on vacation through to the New Year... That's OK, I was wishing for the same thing last night! HA! I hope your Christmas or other celebration was grand... Mine was... Little Delaney Grace stole the show... I sat there watching her, thinking, how great it must be to not have a care in the world, except if her 'baby' needed changing!

    To not have to worry about deficit spending, knuckleheads making decisions against the wishes of their constituents, nut cakes running around shooting off missiles, and ramping up nuclear capabilities, and the beat goes on... The beat goes on......
  • The Markets Ignore Bernanke...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar continues to get bought...
    * German Investor Confidence weakens...
    * The Carry Trade shifts to Japan again...
    * More deficit spending...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Not a Terrific Tuesday for the non-dollar currencies though, as the overnight markets have marked them down once again, and favored the dollar... More on that in a minute... I got a chance to meet up with some old friends and co-workers last night, at a holiday party... I had to leave early though, my leg couldn't stand that long... UGH!

    OK... The daily noise, has the bias to buy going toward the dollar this morning... For some unknown reason, and I emphasize this here... The markets are not listening to Big Ben Bernanke, when he says that current near zero interest rates will remain for 'some time to come'... You see, the markets are under the impression that he's giving us a head fake, and will raise rates aggressively very soon, for the data that has printed recently is of the "need to raise interest rates before inflation takes the economy hostage" kind of stuff......
  • Aussie Jobs Surge!

    In This Issue..

    * High yielders rebound...
    * Kiwi surges 2-full cents!
    * SNB softens tone on franc strength
    * The U.S. Debt Clock...

    Good day... And a very cold Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I remember back to this summer, when in August, we were camping, and it was only 75 degrees, and old man at the country store said to me... 'We're going to pay for this come winter'... I have a bad feeling right now that the old man will be bang on! UGH!

    OK... A chill crept over the dollar bulls overnight, when Australia announced their latest jobs data. Since that time, the dollar has been sold, albeit not frantically, but sold nonetheless, and the high yielders, like Aussie dollars have been the main destination of those funds created from the dollar sales.

    ...
  • RBA Raises Rates!

    In This Issue..

    * Pandora's Box of rate hikes is opened!
    * Is the dollar being removed from oil trades?
    * Deficits do matter, eh?
    * Gold heads toward its all-time high...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Tuesday morning that is seeing a HUGE currency rally VS the dollar on the news that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to go ahead and hike rates now, and not wait for November's meeting, as I had thought they would do! WOW!

    The first hike... It has opened Pandora's Box of interest rate hikes around the world... For, if the RBA went this soon, then we can expect Norway's Norges Bank to push their rate hike earlier on the calendar, maybe even later this month! And they won't be the only ones! Look for New Zealand to hike rates this year, and who knows what other country (Brazil?) will follow after that... But I see them coming, and they're marching the death march of the dollar!...
  • Blood in the streets.....

    In This Issue..

    * Red ink flows...
    * Japan suggests diversification for their reserves...
    * Commodity currencies rebound...
    * Data galore for the rest of the week...

    Good day... Chuck had a late night down at the ballpark watching the home run derby, so he asked me to take the helm of the Pfennig this morning. I'm going to try to get this one out a bit earlier than I did last Friday, so I'll get right to it.

    The biggest news to hit the markets yesterday was the Treasury Department's report that the deficit in June totaled $94.3 billion. This monthly deficit pushed the deficit for the fiscal year to over $1 trillion dollars for the first time, and we still have another quarter to go until the fiscal year ends in September. It comes as no surprise to readers that the deficit is above $1 trillion, but what is a bit unnerving is the speed at which the red ink is flowing....
  • Risk Returns... Slowly...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound...
    * G-8 has no fireworks...
    * Aussie / China and coal...
    * Entitlements...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I'm late, I'm late! I don't believe I ever heard the alarm go off this morning! I overslept by more than an hour, and will still be here more than an hour before any sign of someone else! But! That puts me behind by more than an hour today... I've got to play catch-up! So, let's get this Tub Thumpin' Thursday going!

    Well... Let's see... G-8 never had the opportunity to shoot fireworks because China's leader had to return home to deal with the street riots going on in his country. So... The call for a replacement for the dollar as the reserve currency will have to wait for another day! And, with that news, the dollar got to remain in the sunlight, and bask in the glory of being the reserve currency and so-called 'safe haven' another day......
  • So Far... It's A Turn Around Tuesday!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies bounce back...
    * Commodities and Commodity Currencies get hit hard!
    * China's recovery a myth?
    * Devaluation in the dollar's future?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's too hot in the hot tub! You can't make me get in the hot tub! Ahhh... When I walk outside and my eye glasses fog up from the heat and humidity, I think of that old Saturday Night skit, with Eddie Murphy playing James Brown!

    OK... Well, yesterday we saw the currencies stop the bleeding from the overnight sell off, and although they range traded on the day, the bias was to sell dollars once again. That bias has played through on our Turn Around Tuesday theme, and the currencies are higher today than yesterday, but lower than they were 3-weeks ago week ago. Yes, the month of June has not been kind to the currencies, as some of the euphoria that was going on from March thru May, regarding the global economic recovery is being thought about again, and this time, not with the same rose colored glasses......
  • Stuck In A Range...

    In This Issue..

    * A Turn Around Tuesday?
    * BRIC meeting doesn't get covered by the media?
    * Are the Bearer Bonds real or fakes?
    * QTC's get Gov. backing!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Remember last week, when I said that we had a 'Turn Around Tuesday?' I came in this morning to find a story that Chris Gaffney had printed off the Bloomie for me... The writer refers to the price action yesterday as 'Turn Around Tuesday!' OK... I for one, don't even begin to believe that I was the originator of a saying like that for the currencies... I just find it interesting, that a week after I make a big deal out Turn Around Tuesday that it is used in a story with much wider distribution than my little old Pfennig!...
  • OMB Makes New Deficit Forecast...

    In This Issue..

    * The BLS adds jobs...

    * Growing Deficits again...

    * Jim Rogers....

    * A Trade Surplus for Canada...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... I'm here! Lost Wages... No I mean, Las Vegas! It's such a long flight here! UGH! And the plane was packed... Like I said about a month ago, when you take a flight, it sure doesn't seem like people have cut back on spending!

    OK... Well, the currencies took a breather VS the dollar yesterday, and basically traded right around the currency round-up levels most of the day. Overnight, things were pretty quiet too... The markets are trying to figure out which way they are going to go with the dollar... The Deficit is growing, which SHOULD be bad for the dollar, but in recent times, fundamentals get a little hazy at times. So... Let's go to the tape on the Office of Budget Management (OMB)...
  • Bailout failure accelerates dollars decline...

    * Senate rejects auto bailout... * ECB pushes back from the rate cut table... * Goldman and Citigroup predict a dollar fall... * China to continue to appreciate... ** Bailout failure accelerates dollars decline... Good day... Not sure when all of you will be receiving this today, as it took nearly over a half hour for my computer to boot up this morning. But its all good news for currency investors, so I'll get it written and out to you as quickly as I can. The dollar slowed its decent overnight, but continued to fall vs. most of the major currencies as the US Senate rejected the $14 billion bailout for the auto industry. The big winner in the Senate rejection of the bailout plan was the Japanese yen, as Japanese car makers are predicted to grab an even bigger piece of the US auto market. The yen, which has been rallying due to global deleveraging and carry trade reversals, suddenly had another reason to rally. The yen rose to a 13 year high, trading below 90 yen per dollar, and some are now predicting a rise to 80. Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa boosted the yen further after telling reporters in Tokyo that Japan isn't considering intervening in the currency markets....