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  • Irish debt crisis continues to push the euro lower...

    In This Issue.

    * Irish debt crisis pushes the euro lower

    * Inflation worries drive US rates higher

    * Fed's focus may be narrowed by congress

    * Gold demand rises in India

    ...
    Filed under: , , , ,
  • Catching A Cold...

    In This Issue..

    * Eurozone deficits again...

    * Eurozone Manufacturing dips...

    * Aussie election is up in the air...

    * Bailing on a C$ rate hike?

    ...
  • Mixed data in the US keeps the $ in a tight range ...

    In This Issue..

    * Mixed US data keeps the $ in a tight range...

    * Sovereign debt worries ease a bit...

    * Will Japan intervene?...

    * Gold attracts some big buyers...

    And Now... Today's Pfennig!

    ...
  • The Euro stays on the move…

    In This Issue..

    * Euro stays on the move...
    * Soros calls for more stimulus spending...
    * Commodity currencies suffer...
    * Cards sweep the Dodgers...

    Good day... And welcome to another week. Chuck is on his way to Vancouver this morning to speak at the big Agora Finanacial Investment Symposium later this week; so I will have the honor of bringing you the Pfennig over the next few days. But fans of Chuck shouldn't get too upset, as he always sends me Pfennig Pfodder from the road. The euro has certainly been on the move lately, and Chuck left me the following before signing off last week:

    Well... Mid-morning last Friday, we saw the rug pulled from under the euro, after the single unit had recovered to 1.30. Yes, the euro traded at 1.30 on Friday morning, but that was before a Consumer Confidence report printed in the U.S. and showed a HUGE drop!...
  • Questioning China... Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion takes over...
    * Gold fails to reach all-time high...
    * Debasing is good?
    * Treasury yields plummet!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it looks like the hurricane in the Gulf will veer left, and avoid the 'spill area'... So, those guys working in the Gulf finally catch a break! The bias to sell dollars didn't last too long yesterday, about as long as it takes for an Albert Pujols home run to leave the park! This back and forth stuff is really beginning to give me a rash, folks...

    Yesterday, the selling of the currencies and metals began with Gold... The shiny metal had climbed to just above $1,260, but could not go further, and apparently, traders threw in the towel because Gold couldn't go past its all-time high of $1,266... Gold began to sell off and in the blink of an eye, it went from being up $8, to being down $14! OUCH!...
  • Re-Thinking China...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets sell off...
    * Is China trying to appease G-20?
    * Aussie commodity profits skyrocket!
    * Gold sells off by $22...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Are you full? You know appetite wise... Probably not, for most of you read the Pfennig in the morning, with a cup o' Joe... The renewed appetite for Risk that the markets were displaying yesterday disappeared yesterday afternoon... The markets were full of risk, I guess... For the selling was swift, and damaging to the levels the currencies, commodities, and stocks had gained overnight on the news that China would allow more flexibility in the renminbi...

    See how fickle these markets / traders are? Very! You had a day that everyone was looking forward to, China allowing the renminbi to gain VS the dollar again, and just threw it to the roadside... UGH!

    ...
  • Big Al Talks Deficit Financing...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies hold gained ground VS dollar...
    * Swiss franc really shines!
    * Japan borrows a line from the U.S....
    * The Labor problem grows...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, especially if you are a Los Angeles Lakers fan! Me? I've always been a fan of the Celtics, but since it's a long distance directory assistance relationship, it's not that big of a deal to me that they lost. When I was a kid, the Hawks were in St. Louis, and we won a championship, with Bob Pettit... OK, I was only 3... But my dad loved to talk about it!

    Well... We've had a day where the currencies gained VS the dollar, and then held their ground, for the most part... No profit taking, no debt crisis fears trading, just held their ground VS the dollar... Now, some would say... 'that's a sign that they've hit resistance and can't overtake it, which is not good for a rising asset'... But, me? Well, I would say, and will say... 'I find this to be refreshing. The last thing you want to see is an asset, which in this case is a currency like the euro, run up too much, too fast, for that WILL give the markets reason to sell. I prefer the slow gradual, stealth-like moves in currencies, so that they don't gain any attention, until the rally is well established.'

    ...
  • The Big Dog Gets Off The Porch!

    In This Issue..

    * Good Spanish auction fuels a euro rally...
    * SNB leaves out important words...
    * Deflation disappears in Switzerland...
    * U.S. Housing Starts drop -10%!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I was reading my friend David Galland's letter the other day, and learned that he, like me, was dealing with his wife being gone for the week... I think I have an advantage on him though, as he has little ones at home... My little buddy Alex, has been hanging out with his older brother, Andrew, so I've been... All by myself... (what a great song by Nilsson)

    OK... Yesterday, I told you how the currency rally had the brakes applied by a return to the European Debt Crisis focus... Yesterday's trading was different though. It was, as if, traders never heard that the U.S. and the IMF were putting together a line of credit for Spain, for they began marking up the euro, and selling dollars, as if it June of 2009! (you may recall that in June, last year, the dollar was on the slippery slope once again)...
  • Jobs Disappoint Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro falls below 1.20...
    * Did we have negative "real" job creation?
    * Canada's labor market is strong...
    * G-20 yields nothing...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was a wonderful jam-packed weekend for yours truly, and when the alarm went off this morning, I had a greater appreciation for 3-day weekends!

    Well... Friday, when I was signing off, I said that suddenly the currencies were getting sold... At that time, it looked as if it might be short-lived... But NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! This was an all-out assault on risk, folks... At when the dust settled in the early afternoon, the euro had fallen below 1.20, for the first time since 2005, and everything other currency was getting whacked too... For the first time all week though, Gold rallied......
  • A Jobs Jamboree Friday – 6/4/2010

    In This Issue..

    * Euro gets beaten down again...
    * Why should we do anything now?
    * Brazil keeping inflation away...
    * ADP says 55,000 jobs created in May...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I suspect this will end up being a Fantastico Friday, but right now, not so much... Today is the Big Jobs Jamboree, and the cable news stations are spinning it quite nicely. So nicely put that stock jockeys are believing the spin and running stock futures higher. I've got that to talk about today, and more debt stuff... Believe me dear reader, I wish I didn't have to talk about this debt stuff, but I feel as though me and a few of my friends are the only ones doing so, and I don't want you to become like the rest of the country and become 'comfortably numb' with the deficit figures!...
  • Risk Aversion Is Back!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro bashing is back!
    * Canadian GDP jumps to 6.1%!
    * RBA keeps rates unchanged
    * 7-U.S. cities have 'junk debt'...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And welcome to June! As Pfennig tradition would have it... June is busting out all over, all over the meadows and the hill! Buds're bustin' outta bushes, And the rompin' river pushes, Ev'ry little wheel that wheels beside the mill! And you thought I was just a 'rock-n-roller!'

    Well... Yesterday while we were honoring the fallen soldiers of today and yesteryear, the Europeans were knocking the stuffing out of the euro once again... This time, it was a story that spread like wildfire regarding the Eurozone economy not being able to have strong growth, because of all their austerity measures... Now... Come on boys! First you slam the euro's fingers in the door (OUCH!) for not cutting deficit spending in a few countries, and when they do show a willingness to cut deficit spending, you the ruler out and smack the euro right across the wrist!

    ...
  • Risk On, Risk Off...

    In This Issue..

    * Bundesbank hurts euro...
    * A$ is best performer overnight...
    * Is Gold a euro replacement?
    * 10-year Treasury yields soar higher...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because I got the go-ahead for the next step to replace my eye with a prosthesis that looks like an eye... Just looked up to see Robin Meade back from vacation, so it's a double Tub Thumpin' Thursday now!

    OK... Recall yesterday's talk about the trading pattern that had existed for 4 consecutive days? Well, that was throw to the roadside yesterday, as the U.S. session went back to beating on the euro, and other currencies......
  • The Euro Short Squeeze Comes To An End...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro drops 2-cents overnight...
    * The Ring of Fire...
    * Euro to be added to Carry Trade?
    * Data Cupboard has housing data this week...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The last week of May! Can you believe that? This weekend is Memorial Day Weekend, and Summer is here! (I know, not officially, but to me, Memorial Day marks the beginning of Summer, and always has!) Summer heat arrived here this weekend... Man, did that hot sun feel good! It was 60 for a high on Thursday, and 90 yesterday... If you don't mind change, then you'll love St. Louis weather!

    Well, the heat returned to the euro overnight... After enjoying a couple of days in the sun, rising from the ashes due to a short squeeze last week, it appears to me as though that sun bathing for the euro is over... Yes, it looks like the selling will return this week, I mean I may only have one eye, but I can see a reversal when there is one! The euro began the overnight sessions climbing to 1.2587, and then turned on a dime! The single unit is now grading below 1.24... Do you see the reversal?...
  • The Wolves Are Always At The Door!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro rally falls on its face!
    * Dollars, yen, and Gold highlight the day...
    * More on the ratings agencies...
    * What, me worry about inflation?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's rainy and cold here in St. Louis... Not exactly 'May weather'... But then, you've got to experience this kind of weather, to enjoy the blue umbrella skies, and sunshine, warm days!

    Well... The sunshine for the euro only lasted about 12 hours... Yesterday, when I signed off, I said that the euro had come back from 1.3094 to 1.30, and we would need to see what the NY boys and girls thought of the aid package to get a clear direction for the euro... Well, the NY boys and girls didn't think much of the aid package, and their feelings were soon to show up in the currency trading... Almost all of the euro's gains, and those of the other currencies affected by the Eurozone problems, were wiped out... Completely! The euro is now trading lower than it was when we left for happy hour on Friday afternoon! UGH! But... Shoot Rudy, I said yesterday, that while I liked the package for its calming affect on the markets, I didn't like it for the debt... Well, the calming affect is gone, so we're left with debt......
  • Holding Off The Wolves...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro rallies on aid package announcement...
    * Scandis outperform on the day...
    * Debt clock / bomb begins to tick away...
    * SEC to look at Moody's...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope all you Mothers had a Super Sunday, Mother's Day! It was a beautiful day here, for the most part, albeit more chilly than usual for May. It was also a Super Sunday according to the currency markets, for the Eurozone... So... For more of this historic announcement, read on...

    Well, Front and Center this morning, we're seeing some really big moves by the currencies, up and down... The euro has gapped all the way to 1.3094, and then gapped back down to just over 1.30... But still, doesn't that 1.30 look much better compared to last week, when we actually saw a 1.25 handle briefly? So... What put the tiger in the euro's tank this morning?...