Browse by Tags

Risk Aversion Creeps Back Into The Currencies...

In This Issue..

* Comments spook currency traders...
* A$ hits 15-month high, this time going up!
* Geithner as the "joker"?
* China changes statement about the renminbi...

Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's a Thursday, and it's not raining here! YAHOO! After a week of Indian Summer weather, we're slowly creeping back to the colder weather, but still, better than most Novembers of the past, so far!

That was a strange feeling yesterday, having a holiday in the middle of the week, but the day was nice, and I got to spend the day with my granddaughter, Delaney Grace, who sang me songs all day long!

So... Last night, I'm doing some writing, and before I put the laptop to bed for the night, I checked the currencies, and while they had drifted in the early Asian session, the Big Dog, euro was still trading above 1.50, and the Aussie dollar (A$) had set a 15 month high of .9368... But when I turned the currency screens on this morning after arriving to a pitch black office, which is the way I like it this early in the morning, the euro had given back about 1/2 cent, and so had the A$... So, it was my mission to find out what caused this slippage......

Published 11-12-2009 9:32 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Employment, Currencies, China, Gold, New Zealand, Renminbi, Central Bank, Timothy Geithner

Silence Is Golden...

In This Issue..

* A HUGE dollar sell off overnight...
* BLS admits the Birth/Death model was wrong...
* The 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall...
* Kiwi is best performer overnight...

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A Spectacular weekend, weather wise, here in the Midwest... And Indian Summer, is what my dad would have called it. The news from the Sports teams wasn't so spectacular, but we had the weather going for us!

Welcome to Monday's edition of A Pfennig For Your Thoughts... I'll start off today with a note about the currencies, then do a recap of Friday, and then a look ahead to the rest of the week... So... Strap yourself in, and make sure to keep your arms and legs inside at all times during the ride!...

Published 11-09-2009 9:27 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Dollar, Gold, New Zealand, G20, BLS, Berlin Wall

China Grows at +8.9%!

In This Issue..

* Currency rally is reversed overnight!
* Pay Czar dreams...
* Brazil may reverse capital inflow tax...
* An Asian Union?

Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It's raining outside, so... It must be a Thursday! Amazing how many Thursdays have seen rain this fall! The ground isn't the only thing that's getting watered down this morning...

Front and Center this morning, the euro traded well past 1.50 yesterday afternoon, and drug all the other non-dollar currencies higher as the day went on. But overnight, all that giddiness with seeing the euro over 1.50 for the first time since August of 2008 (and then it was on the way down, instead of this time on the way up!), has been watered down......

Published 10-22-2009 1:08 PM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Oil, China, Gold, Deficit, Asia, Brazil

A Jobs Jamboree for Friday 10/02/2009!

In This Issue..

* The dollar remains well bid...
* G-7 to hand currencies off to G-20?
* Car Sales collapse...
* Auditing the Lehman cash movements...

Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Yesterday, I welcomed you to October. I had been prepared to tell you about a famous radio station here in St. Louis, that has long called October... Rocktober... But forgot, as usual! But anyway... It's the first Fantastico Friday of Rocktober!

Today is a Jobs Jamboree Friday too! And... I'm not getting a good feeling about today's labor report at the Jobs Jamboree. The forecast is for jobs losses to fall from -216,000 to -175,000, but the unemployment rate to tick up to 9.8% from 9.7%... I got the feeling, baby, baby, I got the feeling... Oops, a little James Brown on Fantastico Friday never hurts! But what I was saying was I'm getting the feeling that there are risks to this forecast... And that the job losses could come in higher, which would really be a BAD thing for the recovery flag wavers and risk takers, I'm sorry to say...

...

Published 10-02-2009 9:14 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Dollar, G7, Lehman Brothers, Automotive Industry, G20, Treasuries, CARS Program

Catching Up With Richard Duncan...

In This Issue..

* Non-dollar currencies give back very little...
* The Unemployed are remaining unemployed...
* FOMC puts away the board games today...
* China invokes a 'Public Morals' defense...

Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, the Fed Head put away the board games today, and make an announcement this afternoon... Yawn... Norway's Norges Bank will also make an announcement with theirs coming this morning. I still contend that the Norges Bank will keep rates unchanged and give a hint as to when their rate hike cycle will begin. If that were to happen as I think, then it would be very bullish for the krone......

Published 09-23-2009 9:35 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, China, Gold, New Zealand, FOMC, Addison Wiggin, Richard Duncan, Bill Bonner, The Dollar Crisis

More Strong Data Sinks The Dollar...

In This Issue..

* Currencies near 1-year levels...
* Canadian loonies are best performer!
* Dangling a carrot...
* Oil trades above $72...

Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Why Tub Thumpin'? Why not? Besides, the non-dollar currencies are darn near where they were a year ago, having a good chunk of the ground they lost during the Financial Meltdown last fall and winter... Not that I'm a cheerleader, but more of a 'this is what I believed would happen, and glad to see a plan come together' kind of guy!

And since I, unlike throngs of people that like to point out errors, put my beliefs in writing every day... Right out there / here, in the open, for anyone to take pot shots at... But, I learned long ago that there will always be those that disagree, and not to let it upset or change the things I believe...

...

Published 09-17-2009 9:37 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Oil, Gold, Canada, Japan, Consumer Spending

A Rout On The Dollar!

In This Issue..

* Currencies rally strong!
* China is upset with printing of dollars...
* The UN talks of a new currency...
* Unemployment rate rises to 9.7%

Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long Holiday Weekend, that was quite good for yours truly! A great tailgate, a great Missouri Tigers victory, 3 of 4 for the Cardinals, a great end of summer bar-b-que at the Butler House, and a day to recharge the batteries... Really couldn't ask for much more... Yes, the weather could have cooperated a bit better, but, hey, that's nitpicking!

Well... Last night I was checking the markets to see what was going on, since I had walked away from the desk on Friday afternoon... And much to my surprise, the currencies, led by the euro, seemed to be breaking out of their recent trading ranges. The euro was trading 1.4335, when I checked then... And when I turned on the currency screens here at the office this morning, the euro has stretched that move to the 1.4480 level! WOW! Looks to me as though the deficits that the dollar drags around are not looking to sharp to investors... But then, what took them so long to dump that fashion faux pas? Ahhh, grasshopper... As I've said many times before... The markets will do what they are supposed to do... Just not when... Which means, sometimes you have to wait... And wait... And think that they guy ranting each day in the Pfennig is barking up the wrong tree!...

Published 09-08-2009 9:35 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Trade Deficit, Dollar, Oil, China, Gold, Global Currency

Yet Another Jobs Jamboree Friday!

In This Issue..

* Currencies trade in a tight range...
* G-20 to shun an exit from stimulus?
* Gold and Silver and Oil... A new trend?
* Loonies follow the commodities higher...

Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Well... Once again, my day didn't turn out exactly as planned, but as they say... A bad day at the ballpark is better than a good day and then you plug in the place... It could be work... It could be cutting the grass... Etc..

OK... I heard a great song on the radio this morning on my way to work... And I said to myself... Chuck, now that's a great song to start a day with, that everyone should hear each day! It's a song from the 60's (of course!), by the Rascals, called... It's a Beautiful Morning... Here's the first verse, and if you know the song, I'm sure you'll want to sing along, but if not... Look it up, I'm sure, you'll agree that it's a great way to start a day!

...

Published 09-04-2009 11:04 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Oil, Silver, Gold, Canada, Trichet, G20

A Currency Rally Takes Shape...

In This Issue..

* Currencies rally overnight...
* A$'s rally for 7th consecutive month!
* Will the ECB be vindicated?
* Sweden tries negative deposit rates...

Good day... And a happy Friday to one and all! So, yesterday didn't turn out the way I thought it would go, but that's OK... I think my body is trying to tell me something, as I overslept again this morning! I'm heading out the door this morning to go 'fishing'... Should be a ton of fun, with neighbor friends this weekend...

Well, front and center this morning, we are smack dab in the middle of a currency rally VS the dollar. It has all the makings of such, as the Japanese yen is getting sold, along with the green/peachback. The improved economic data this week, finally caught up with the dollar, as risk assets are back on the table....

Published 08-28-2009 9:38 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Employment, Currencies, Euro, European Central Bank, Interest Rates, Sweden, Eurozone

The Boy Who Cried Wolf? NOT!

In This Issue..

* Currencies rally in early morning Wednesday
* But see selling the rest of the day.
* German Consumer Confidence surprises...
* GDP to be revised downward?

Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I get knocked down, but I get up again, you're never gonna keep me down... Yes, a little Tub Thumpin' this morning... I'm all geeked up because I'm sneaking out to go watch Chris Carpenter pitch for the Cardinals this afternoon! A day game... YAHOO!

OK... Enough of that! Well, another day where the currencies bumped higher early morning, but then were sold the rest of the day. I know the currency guys (and gals) are all wonder where do they go from here... Which is the way that's clear? Well... Short term currency forecasts are proven to be wrong, most of the time... Long term? Well, that can't be argued... The deficit spending, the money creation, and the monetizing of debt will all come back to haunt the dollar... And as Aaron said yesterday, "we've only just begun"... (he was telling a joke), it holds true for the U.S. deficit spending picture......

Published 08-27-2009 10:49 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Dollar, China, GDP, Deficit Spending, German Consumer Confidence

A Big Jobs Surprise!

In This Issue..

* Low yielding currencies get sold...
* High yielding currencies remain solid...
* Further info on the inflation indexed bonds...
* Stealth QE...

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A very nice, but hot weekend here... But hey! It's August, it's supposed to be hot! Friday was an awful day for most of the currencies, and there was a HUGE surprise in the Jobs Jamboree (according to the BLS, of course!)... And, at the end of updates, I've got a story for you about stealth QE, you'll not want to miss a minute of that! So... Let's go!

Well, Friday's Jobs Jamboree was quite interesting to say the least... I had already told you about the forecasts for a HUGE drop in job losses for July from 467,000 to 325,000... But the number, according to the BLS, was 247,000!!!!!!! Way to Go Corporate America! Geez Louise, I wish it were that full of seashells and balloons! This smells of yesterday's fish folks... OK, let me get this straight... The forecast was for 325,000 job losses, and an unemployment rate of 9.6% (up from 9.5% in June)... And the jobs lost were 247,000, a difference of 78,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 9.4%... So, the BLS is telling me, and you, that 78,000 jobs not being lost, was equal to .2% (9.6 to 9.4)? Come on! I didn't just fall off the turnip truck!...

Published 08-10-2009 10:48 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Employment, Currencies, Silver, Gold, Quantitative Easing, Brazil

Another Jobs Jamboree!

In This Issue..

* Currencies trade in a tight range... Again!
* Continuing Claims rise...
* Bank of England adds to QE! UGH!
* Swiss franc posts 5 weeks of gains...

Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm going to go out on a limb and say it will be a Fantastico Friday! This has been a long week for yours truly, coming off a week of relaxation, and getting right back in the saddle... But... It's Friday... YAHOO!

OK... There are a few things to discuss this morning, but none so important as the Jobs Jamboree that will happen in a couple of hours from now. I told you yesterday that the economists surveyed believe that the jobs lost number will make a big move downward from 476,000 in June to 325,000 in July... That's a HUGE jump folks! Ty Keough responded to that note in the Pfennig yesterday by saying, "That's because there are no more jobs to cut!" Now, that's one way of looking at it... We have to hope that it's not that, but instead be a reflection of jobs being added... Come on! We can hope!...

Published 08-07-2009 9:37 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Swiss franc, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, Quantitative Easing, CARS Program

Spending More Than We (the U.S.) Make...

In This Issue..

* Currencies trade in a tight range
* Pesos, loonies and reals in the spotlight...
* The Mogambo on a Thursday! YAHOO!
* Jobs reports dominate today & tomorrow...

Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Once again yesterday, we traded all day in a very tight range with the currencies. The ADP/Challenger data didn't give anyone a warm and fuzzy about the labor picture, and tax receipts are in the news... So, let's go to the tape!

OK, front and center this morning, I have to talk about this deal with tax receipts in this country. So, I've chronicled the April and June debacles for tax receipts, but just in case someone is new to class, and missed that, let's review... The U.S. used to count on the months of April and June for HUGE cash receipts from tax returns, but this year, both April and June's tax receipts were so bad, the expenditures were greater than the receipts! I highlight these two months because, they should have been positive months for the budget balance... If we can't post a positive balance in April and June, what's the rest of the year going to look like?

...

Published 08-06-2009 9:49 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Brazilian Real, China, European Central Bank, Canada, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, Peso

GDP Does Not Compute, Will Robinson!

In This Issue..

* Currencies trade in a tight range
* Pound Sterling, the star performer?
* Something smells fishy...
* Do you see trend with Gov. Reports?

Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! We had a very tight range trading day yesterday in the currencies, which have left them trading in about the same clothes they were wearing when I signed off yesterday! We've got that to talk about, and... Another $2 Billion for the CARS program has been allocated... What a crock! OK, Chuck, slow down, you don't need to get your blood boiling this quickly, this morning!

I'm writing from home this morning, as I have a meeting close to our old office, which means its not far from where I live, which is completely different from our current office location, which is, I'll say... Quite a distance... But, hey! I'm not complaining, just giving you the details......

Published 08-05-2009 9:49 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, British Pound, Bank of England, GDP, Eurozone, Consumer Spending, Goverment

Heeeeeeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk...

In This Issue..

* A strong currency move on Friday...
* Data Cupboard gets a work out this week...
* U.K. and ECB meet this week...
* RBA to move to neutral tonight?

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Heeeeeeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk... Oh no! Just when you thought it was safe to open the Daily Pfennig and not get lectured on deficit spending... He's back! Oh well, It's been over two weeks, first to Vancouver, then on vacation. We've got a lot of catching up to do, eh? Mike and Chris did a Fantastico job of taking the conn on the Pfennig in my absence... So thanks to them... But it's back to me, and besides a couple of days in San Francisco later this month, I'm all yours! (I bet that just makes you smile like a Cheshire Cat... NOT!)

OK... Rather than beat around the bush this morning, Chris left me this note from Friday's price action, so let's go to the Friday round up and then onto today! Here's Chris!...

Published 08-03-2009 11:25 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Employment, Currencies, Commodities, China, Recession, Euro, European Central Bank, Nouriel Roubini, Deficit Spending

Blog Subscription Form

Syndication

Have You Seen This?

Recent Posts

Tags

Archives