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Have You Seen This?

  • Consumer Spending?

    In This Issue.

    * U.S. GDP prints at 3.2%...

    * Dollar rallies on GDP data.

    * Eurozone inflation rises 2.4%

    * The CABAL.

    ...
  • Risk Off as US data disappoints…

    In This Issue..

    * Risk is back off on poor US data...
    * Euro pauses at $1.32...
    * China moves by Japan to become #2...
    * Gold moves close to $1,200...

    Good day...and welcome to Wednesday, or as we call it on the desk 'hump day'. Yesterday was another busy day on the desk, it seems like investors are finally figuring out that in spite of the uncertainty in the markets, there are still some good opportunities. But while the flow of trades increased yesterday, the currency markets took a breather from their torrid pace on Monday.

    What movement did occur yesterday was mainly due to a plethora of data releases in the US which mostly disappointed. Personal income and spending in the US were both reported unchanged for the month of June, and May's numbers were revised slightly lower. And while US consumers were feeling the pinch, prices rose a bit more than expected with the PCE Deflator moving 1.4% higher vs. an expected 1.3% increase. So it was no surprise when the ABC Consumer Confidence number came in at -50, again worse than what was expected....
  • Oil spikes up in global confidence.

    In This Issue..

    * Oil surges to a three month high...
    * Bernanke is confident US consumers will spend again...
    * RBA keeps rates on hold...
    * Silver outshines Gold...

    Good day... When you have been in this business as long as I have, certain patterns become apparent; and one of those patterns showed back up yesterday. In the 20+ years that I have been working with Chuck, it always seemed the currencies rally whenever Chuck spends a week or two away from the desk. We call it 'Chuck's vacation rally'. Yesterday we saw the dollar drop and the currencies bounce back up beginning what looks like another leg in the long term trend....
  • Confident investors move dollar lower...

    In This Issue..

    * Confident investors move dollar lower...
    * US consumers start spending again (is this really what we need?)...
    * Aussie dollar and kiwi move higher...
    * Gold and Silver move higher on the weaker dollar...

    Good day, and welcome to the last Monday of March. The countdown to Cardinal opening day has begun, which means Chuck will be heading back home shortly. Investors headed back into the currency markets Friday feeling more confident in the global recovery after US GDP for the 4th quarter of 2009 held at 5.6%. The combination of good US growth, a possible solution to the Greek debt crisis, and the passage of Obama's healthcare overhaul had investors almost giddy as they put money back to work in the markets....
  • The Dollar Rebounds Again...

    In This Issue..

    * Economic data deep sixes currency rally...
    * U.S. Treasury back at the auction window!
    * Yen's rose has faded...
    * Chinese renminbi spikes higher!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Not trying to sound like a broken record here, but today is the last Wednesday of 2009... The last 'hump day' and so on... The non-dollar currencies got bushwhacked yesterday by the dollar bulls around mid-day, and there's been no recovery since. The Treasury is back at the auction table, with $32 Billion in 7-year Treasuries for you to buy at the fantabulous yield of.... Drum roll please.... 2.60%! All that and more, so buckle yourself in, and make certain to keep your arms and legs inside the Pfennig at all times during the ride!

    ...
  • Dollar drifts lower....

    In This Issue...

    * Dollar drifts lower...
    * Looking for silver linings...
    * NOK to increase rates...
    * Aussie dollar continues to move up...

    Good day... And good morning to everyone. I wanted to start out this morning's Pfennig by saying my thoughts and prayers go out to all of the families of the fallen soldiers and civilian at the tragedy down at Ft. Hood. It is tough enough when we here about losses of our soldiers overseas in the 'combat zones'; but such a large loss of life right here in the US is deeply saddening.

    The dollar moved lower throughout the trading day on Thursday as investors felt more confident with the global recovery and the US stock market climbed back above 10,000. Yesterday's weekly jobs numbers were slightly better than expected, and set the market up for this mornings monthly jobs report which will probably show fewer job losses in October compared to September. But there will still be job losses, not gains; and the 'official' unemployment number will inch closer to double digits. We all know if you count those individuals who are underemployed (part time workers who would like full time jobs) and those that have given up on their job search, the actual unemployment number is more like 16%....
  • Consumer Spending Drives GDP?

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar rebounds after spending fades...
    * Chinese Manufacturing rises...
    * Eurozone Manufacturing rises...
    * Australia as the proxy for global growth...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And Welcome to November! My least liked month! But that's a story for another time! I hope your Halloween was fun! The rain stopped here, there was a near full moon shining in the sky, and the little kids had a blast! And Hey! The Rams won a football game! WOW!

    OK... Well... Friday was a blur to me, as I went to the doctor's office for a test, and then on my way to work, they called my cell and asked me to turn around and go to a lab for more tests... UGH! So, by the time I got to work, Jennifer had set everything up and begun trading for me... Then it was time to go home! So, I'm sitting here this morning, scratching my bald head trying to recall the currency prices on Friday... And Oh yeah! Now I remember! Do you recall the Thursday action after the GDP report showed such strength (whether you believe it or not) and the dollar got sold like pet rocks?...
  • 3rd QTR GDP Is Strong!

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar gets sold after GDP report
    * High yielders get bought!
    * German Retail Sales decline...
    * Real has wild swings!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I can't believe how hard it rained here yesterday... Unbelievable! And me, with my cane, and not able to run, was stuck in it going from the car... Absolutely soaked! If I were a kid, I would have thought that to be fun! But, I'm not... It's still raining this morning too! UGH! Let's hope it stops in time for the Trick-or-Treaters!

    OK... Well the rain fell on the dollar's parade yesterday too! And, just like I thought it would do... The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a state fair, once the U.S. 3rd QTR GDP report printed... The dollar rally was stopped in its tracks, which meant that the "trading theme" that rewards the dollar when things look bad in the U.S. and punishes it when things look good, which is completely opposite of what it should do fundamental wise, was still in place!...
  • G-7 To Discuss Currencies?

    In This Issue..

    * The ball is in the dollar's court today...
    * Aussie is unable to hold 14-month high...
    * China and Eurozone print stronger PMI's
    * Chock-full-o-data today...

    Good day... Welcome to October! And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! No real reason to get Tub Thumpin', but I thought why not? The non-dollar currencies have given back their gains made yesterday to the dollar, in a game of what seems to be, give and take... A tennis match with the dollar, one day the ball is in the dollar's court, and the next day it's not! Really, kind of giving me a rash, watching this... I want some direction here!

    So... When I turned on all my screens this morning, and then waited about 20 minutes for the new programs to be installed on them that the IT people left for the next time the computer started up... Hmmm, where was I? Oh! I was talking about when I first saw the currencies this morning... I saw that the euro had fallen back to 1.4560... And of course wanted to find out why...

    ...
  • More Strong Data Sinks The Dollar...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies near 1-year levels...
    * Canadian loonies are best performer!
    * Dangling a carrot...
    * Oil trades above $72...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Why Tub Thumpin'? Why not? Besides, the non-dollar currencies are darn near where they were a year ago, having a good chunk of the ground they lost during the Financial Meltdown last fall and winter... Not that I'm a cheerleader, but more of a 'this is what I believed would happen, and glad to see a plan come together' kind of guy!

    And since I, unlike throngs of people that like to point out errors, put my beliefs in writing every day... Right out there / here, in the open, for anyone to take pot shots at... But, I learned long ago that there will always be those that disagree, and not to let it upset or change the things I believe...

    ...
  • GDP Does Not Compute, Will Robinson!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range
    * Pound Sterling, the star performer?
    * Something smells fishy...
    * Do you see trend with Gov. Reports?

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! We had a very tight range trading day yesterday in the currencies, which have left them trading in about the same clothes they were wearing when I signed off yesterday! We've got that to talk about, and... Another $2 Billion for the CARS program has been allocated... What a crock! OK, Chuck, slow down, you don't need to get your blood boiling this quickly, this morning!

    I'm writing from home this morning, as I have a meeting close to our old office, which means its not far from where I live, which is completely different from our current office location, which is, I'll say... Quite a distance... But, hey! I'm not complaining, just giving you the details......
  • Dollar continues it’s slide...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar continues to slide...
    * US GDP contracts but not as fast...
    * Nordic currencies outperform...
    * Japanese yen continues to fall...

    Good day... The last day of July is upon us. Time just seems to keep moving faster as it seems summer just got started. The fall of the dollar also accelerated yesterday as investors moved back out of the 'safe haven' of US$ and continued to shop for more yield. The greenback tried to stage a bit of a rally in early European trading, but has fallen back off again as I sit down to write the Pfennig.

    I got a call from a Reuters reporter yesterday mid morning to ask why the dollar was rallying at the same time stocks were moving higher. I quickly paged through my Bloomberg looking for some sign why both were heading higher. The trading pattern which has been established over the last few months has these two asset classes moving in opposite directions; good news for the US economy sends stocks higher and the dollar lower as investors retreat from defensive 'safe haven' positions in the US$. The opposite occurs whenever there is data which shows the global economic recovery is faltering, stocks move lower and the dollar rallies with safe haven buying....
  • Risk aversion returns…

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion returns...
    * Money Multiplier dampens stimulus effects...
    * TIC flows show concern of foreign investors...
    * China back on growth track...

    Good day... Chuck got an early start on a two week hiatus from the desk, so you will be stuck with me writing the Pfennig for the next two weeks. But don't worry, you will still get a small dose of Chuck over the next week as he typically emails me his thoughts while on the road (I call it Pfennig Pfodder). Risk aversion dominated the currency markets overnight, as terrorists set off two separate explosions in Jakarta and investors moved money back into the 'safe havens' of the US$ and Japanese yen.

    Chuck wrote about this move yesterday, believing the bad news regarding CIT would probably cause a risk reversal. But the US stock market shook off the CIT news and rallied higher after a big earnings report by JP Morgan and a somewhat positive statement by Nouriel Roubini. Roubini, the New York University economist who is credited with predicting the financial crisis, said in a speech yesterday that the US economy might be close to the bottom. The stock jockeys took this statement along with the positive earnings reports and ran stocks up. But Roubini later tried to caution these bulls against reading too much into his statement, and reminded everyone that he has not changed his thoughts on a US recovery: 'I continue to see a shallow, below par and below trend recovery.'...
  • Frightened investors move back into US treasuries.....

    In This Issue..

    * Jobs data skewed by 'seasonal adjustments'...
    * BOE surprises the market...
    * Oil falls below $60...
    * China's reserves continue to grow...

    Good day...Chuck has a bevy of doctor's appointments today, so he decided to let me take over the Pfennig. Unfortunately it will go out a little later than usual, as I always struggle to get all of my thoughts together so early in the morning. Its not that I come in late (I was here two hours before everyone else) but it just takes me much longer than Chuck to get it all on paper. But enough of the excuses, I've got to get writing.

    Weekly jobless claims released in the US yesterday morning fell below 600k for the first time since January but the continuing claims continue to rise, hitting another record. The slight improvement in the weekly numbers was distorted by the automotive sector. Car companies typically shut down plants in early July in order to change over to the new model year. Bankruptcy forced many of these plants to shut down much earlier than normal, and some temporarily started up production again during the past few weeks....
  • A Dollar Roadblock!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro goes back and forth over 1.42...
    * Geithner make another promise to China...
    * RBA leaves rates unchanged...
    * The Mogambo on a Tuesday!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... The currencies, led by the euro, ran into a dollar road block yesterday, not once, not twice, but three times... The first two times the euro traded over the 1.42 figure, it fell back, but recovered to again try to remain over 1.42... It was a classic case of profit taking at a line of resistance... But the third time, was no charm for the euro, and thus it ended the day and night sessions below 1.42... But hey! Has this run from 1.2578 on March 1st, been something or what?

    I see where UBS believes this is it for the euro... Sort of like the thought that a star burns the brightest right before it burns out... Hmmm... I guess they believe that the U.S. deficit problems are going to go away... Apparently, they drank the kool-aid from U.S. Treasury Sec. Geithner, who told the Chinese that the U.S. was going to shrink the deficit... He also told them that their assets were 'safe'... Ty sent me something on this that he found yesterday......