Browse by Tags

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • Germany & France Post 3rd QTR Growth...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion fuels dollar rally yesterday...
    * Eurozone growth may stop the Risk Aversion...
    * Budget Deficit is a record $176.4 Billion!
    * Euro, Swiss, Aussie, Norway, all cheaper today!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Let's try to make this a Fantastico Friday as well! The Risk Aversion that was creeping into the currency markets yesterday really took hold in the U.S. trading session, which meant the dollar was being bought once more, along with Japanese yen...

    It just makes me laugh out loud, when I write that the 'safe haven currencies' during Risk Aversion trading are the dollar and yen... These two countries have debt up to their eyeballs, pay no interest on their deposits, and have a leadership deficiency... (ok, before every begins to think that I'm ripping the president again, I'm not... I'm talking about the Central Bank, and lawmakers of each country)...
  • German ZEW Underpins The Euro...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on tariff news...
    * Norway's election doesn't move krone...
    * Canada's Gov't problems to hurt loonies?
    * 1-year since Lehman Bros...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, just as I suspected yesterday in the Pfennig, when the U.S. traders came in and got word of the new Chinese tariffs on tires, the dollar got sold like re-mastered box sets of Beatles albums! So, we've got that to talk about, and some other items I'd like to discuss... So, here we come Terrific Tuesday!

    OK... Well, just as I stated above, the U.S. traders didn't care for the new tariff, feeling that it would project a trade war, and therefore sold the dollar. The Big Dog, euro, traded to 1.4635 by mid-day... There was some profit taking late in the day, which brought the euro back to below 1.46, but then this morning, the euro got another boost from a report on German Investor Confidence, to bring it back to 1.46, as I write......
  • Making The Fed Reserve Accountable!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies sold overnight
    * But rebound in early morning trading...
    * China throws cold water on stock values...
    * German exports rival the Big Kahuna!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I returned home from San Francisco last night, and am back in the saddle today! Not the way I like to travel, where I get a day when returning home to recharge the batteries, but it is what it is... I did an interview with MarketWatch yesterday morning, talking about... Well, what else? The deficits, and diversification! My presentations in S.F. were well attended... On Saturday, my power point froze up, but I carried on in spite of the technical difficulties!

    You know... I really, heard a lot of people talking about the rumor / conspiracy story that there will be a bank holiday at the end of the month (this weekend) and the Gov't will announce major changes to the currency... Now, before anyone begins to believe that I am on board with that rumor / conspiracy story, STOP! I am NOT! I've read all the theories, and I've heard all the information regarding this, but just do not understand why this would be done... So... I just wanted to throw it out there, and let you all know where I stand on this......
  • Carry trades unwind...

    In This Issue..

    * Carry trades unwind...
    * Euro zone GDP falls...
    * Will TIC flows be enough??
    * Aussie dollar predicted to outperform...

    Good day...Chuck handed me the Pfennig this morning, as I took an early flight home yesterday and he got back to St. Louis much later than I did. The Las Vegas Money Show went well, as Chuck packed the presentation rooms with investors looking to learn more about investing in Gold and currencies. Attendance seemed like it was down a bit, but we stayed busy at the booth with investors looking for diversification. We also got to see a number of 'old friends' who stopped by the booth to say hi. All in all it was a good three days, but as always, it is good to get home and back into the routine.

    The currency markets fell back into their established routine also, as fear drove investors out of riskier assets and back into the US$. We saw a general reversal of the carry trade, with the Japanese yen the only major currency which appreciated vs. the US$. As Chuck pointed out last week, investors feeling more confident about the global economy, dusted off their carry trades which had made them good money over the past few years. But traders are still a bit skittish, and move back out of these leveraged trades at the first sign of trouble in the global economy....
  • Euro Rally Fizzles Out...

    * Yen continues to kick! * Jim Rogers disses sterling... * China's 4th QTR GDP... * Singapore announces stimulus... ** Euro Rally Fizzles Out... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! A nasty day in the currencies yesterday, except Japan of course. The Dow jumped 290 points yesterday, maybe an Obama bounce? You all know that I subscribe to an Obama bounce for stocks and the dollar in the first part of this year... But given what I know about, and what you now know about, after I drew it all out yesterday, the additions to the deficit that Obama will make, the focus on the fundamentals should return by late spring, early summer... That's my story and I'm stickin' to it! Well... As I said in the opening, the currencies led by the Big Dog, euro, suffered through a nasty trading day, with the euro touching below 1.29 for a good part of the day. The risk takers are nowhere to be found. Where have all the risk takers gone... Long time passing... A Reuters reporter asked me yesterday if I was still of the opinion that the yen had more to rally or was it overbought? I said, that as long as the risk takers are nowhere to be found, yen should continue on its path higher VS the dollar, euro and sterling. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for yen, shows that it is a tad overbought, but that's not enough to change my mind. Nor is it enough to change the mind of a currency trader at the Bank of New York (BONY), who believes yen may rise to 85 VS the dollar by midyear... Another currency trader at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) believes the Bank of Japan will step in and intervene to stem the yen's rise.......
  • Obama picks his economic team...

    * Obama picks his economic team... * Nordic currencies rise... * US floods market with dollars... * China looks to keep growth at 8%... ** Obama picks his economic team... Good day... Hope everyone had a great weekend, mine sure was. We had a fun time Friday night bowling and playing pool at our Xmas party. Unfortunately Chuck wasn't able to attend, as he was down in Florida speaking at a Wealth Masters Conference. He will be heading back into St. Louis today, and will be back in the saddle tomorrow morning for what will be a short week. The big news over the weekend was the unveiling of President elect Obama's economic team. Obama has picked Timothy Geithner, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to be his Treasury secretary, and former Treasury chief Lawrence Summers will be White House economic director. Obama is also likely to nominate New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson as Commerce Secretary. Geithner has had a primary role in the Federal Reserve's attempt to steer Wall Street through the current financial tsunami. He also oversees most of the Fed's special lending programs set up this year to channel more than $1 trillion to banks and other financial institutions....