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  • China Contemplates More Investment.

    In This Issue.

    * Greece hangs on by a thread.

    * Only a few currencies gain VS dollars.

    * Italy asks China to buy bonds.

    * Another person thinks like Chuck!

    ...
  • US data drag down the dollar. . .

    In This Issue.

    * US data is a drag on the dollar

    * China is buying less of our debt

    * EU finance chiefs bailout Portugal but what about Greece?

    * Our new Timeless Metals MarketSafe

    ...
  • Questioning China... Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion takes over...
    * Gold fails to reach all-time high...
    * Debasing is good?
    * Treasury yields plummet!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it looks like the hurricane in the Gulf will veer left, and avoid the 'spill area'... So, those guys working in the Gulf finally catch a break! The bias to sell dollars didn't last too long yesterday, about as long as it takes for an Albert Pujols home run to leave the park! This back and forth stuff is really beginning to give me a rash, folks...

    Yesterday, the selling of the currencies and metals began with Gold... The shiny metal had climbed to just above $1,260, but could not go further, and apparently, traders threw in the towel because Gold couldn't go past its all-time high of $1,266... Gold began to sell off and in the blink of an eye, it went from being up $8, to being down $14! OUCH!...
  • Now It's Spain...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro drops 2-cents overnight...
    * All Risk is taken off the table today...
    * Geopolitical problems steady Gold...
    * The Budget Cuts just keep coming!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it was almost a "perfect ride" to work this morning, as I hit all the green lights until the very end! UGH! See, it doesn't take much to make me happy!

    The euro's green light ended last night too, as 'Now It's Spain' (NIS)... As I was packing up to go home yesterday afternoon, the euro had moved beyond 1.24, and I said, 'I wonder what's got the euro so perky this afternoon'... Well, that 'perky' feeling the euro had at that time was wiped out and more by fears that Spain's problems are now going to take center stage... Greece is an afterthought at this point, now it's Spain......
  • Waiting On The Norges Bank...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro continues to get sold...
    * Will Norges bank get confused?
    * Thoughts on China...
    * Gold gets dragged down by euro...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! It's getting quite ugly out there in the investing world. Yesterday I tried to draw a line of comparison from the near collapse of Bear Stearns to the problems of the Eurozone... That line became quite a bit more clear yesterday and in the overnight markets... Let's go to the tape!

    Well... It was another day of selling the euro and dragging other currencies along for the ride... This time, Gold and Brazilian real could no longer resist the pull / drag of the euro selling... It has actually become a rout on the single unit, as now, we're not only dealing with the sovereign debt risk of Greece (which I still contend is not that big in the whole scheme of the Eurozone) but now, the euro is sailing into technical trading rough waters......
  • Counting Flowers On The Wall...

    In This Issue..

    * A non-movement day in currencies...
    * Euro gets hit again by Greek debt levels...
    * Asia is bellwether for global growth...
    * Gold rallies!

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! I hear that the "rains" are coming today, and will be around until next Tuesday! We'll be water logged, eh? I want to thank everyone who sent along the 'welcome back' notes yesterday. I need to make something clear... I'm not at the office... Not yet, they won't let me... So, I'm writing from home, and I have to pat myself on the back because I didn't complain one iota about writing from home yesterday! HA!

    Talk about counting flowers on the wall, playing solitaire till dawn with a deck of 51, and all those other things that fall under the category of being bored, and dull... That was the day in currencies yesterday......
  • US data comes in stronger than expected...

    In This Issue..

    * US data comes in stronger than expected...
    * Worries over Greece pushes dollar higher...
    * China grows at 11.9%...
    * Australia may look to pause?...

    Good day, it is tax day which is not usually a happy day for the 51% of the folks who have to pay the taxman. Chuck would take the opportunity to break into the Beatles song right now, but I'm not as good with lyrics, so you will just have to hum it in your head. The dollar was down in trading yesterday, as most of the data released was positive and emboldened traders to move money out of safe havens. But overnight the Asian markets decided to take the dollar higher, and the Europeans are continuing to buy greenbacks. I'll get to what caused the big change in a second, but first I will review all of the data we got yesterday morning....
  • Germany's Merkel gets her way...

    In This Issue..

    * Germany's Merkel gets her way...
    * Confidence in the US ebbs lower...
    * China to stick to renminbi policy...
    * Gold stops sliding...

    Good day, we had another strong day for the dollar yesterday, with the greenback gaining against all of the majors. But overnight, the Asians and then the Europeans sold the dollar and moved money back into the currencies. So after another rollercoaster ride, we are basically right back where we were at this time yesterday morning. These volatile markets are likely to continue, as investors try to figure out if the global economy will recover or if we will slide back into recession. With all of this uncertainty, you would think investors would be moving into 'hard assets': Gold and Silver. But the markets for these two precious metals have been surprisingly quiet this year. More on the metals a bit later, first I will try to figure out these currency markets....
  • US data fails to move the markets...

    In This Issue..

    * US data fails to move the markets...
    * EU split on Greek bailout...
    * Rogers is a seller of pounds...
    * Goldman says the renminbi is fairly valued...

    Good day... It is Friday and the end of what seems like a long week for yours truly. While I have enjoyed my time in Florida, I look forward to be able to sit down at my desk to write Monday morning instead of dealing with intermittent access to the internet and a slight lack of market information. You can get the data just fine on the road, but you miss out on the 'feel' of the markets when you aren't on the desk.

    But luckily for me, economic data is what ruled the markets yesterday. We had a plethora of data released in the US, but the markets seemed to be focused on the release of CPI and the weekly jobs numbers. CPI led off Thursday morning's data showing prices in the US were unchanged for the month in February from the .2% gains we saw at the start of the year. The core number was up .1% offsetting a .1% dip in January. The YOY (year on year)number showed a drop in the inflation rate to 2.2% from 2.7%. We all know how manipulated this data is, and our friends over at ShadowStats reported the non-seasonally adjusted number was actually just over 5%, which is certainly more realistic. But while this number is higher than the 'official' number, it showed a similar decline; diffusing a rumor which swirled around the markets yesterday afternoon.

    ...
  • Merkel throws Greece under the bus...

    In This Issue..

    * Merkel throws Greece under the bus...
    * Canadian dollar moves higher...
    * China policy causes carry reversal...
    * Jobs data to move the markets...

    Good day... And good morning to all of you. I arrived in the 'sunshine' state only to find rain and cold. It is actually a bit colder here than back home in St. Louis, but the trip down went well, I got to do my run on the beach, and I had a great dinner with a large group of EverBankers last night; so I'm not going to let the weather get me down.

    The German's broke rank with the rest of the EU and suggested Greece should turn to the IMF for support. The euro had rallied over the past couple of days after it seemed the EU finance ministers had agreed on a loan facility to back the Greek government. But Germany's Angela Merkel threw a cat among the pigeons today when she said Greece should not look to the EU but should turn to the IMF if it needs aid. So traders immediately started selling the euro again as the black cloud of a possible Greek default fell hung back over the market....
  • Another roller coaster day in the US...

    In This Issue..

    * Another roller coaster day in the US...
    * TIC data shows China and Japan losing their appetite...
    * Eurozone members support Greece...
    * Precious metals rise...

    Good day... We had a pretty busy day in the currency markets yesterday, with the dollar rising sharply in the morning only to sell off again after lunch. The selling continued in Asian trading, and the dollar index is back down to levels it was at this time yesterday morning. These roller coaster rides will probably continue as the markets just don't seem to know where to take the currencies. Short term moves will continue to be exaggerated, but the long term dollar continues to be in place.

    As I pointed out yesterday, this is a very busy week for data here in the US, and yesterday started us off with a bang. The volatile Empire manufacturing number showed a slight tick up but pretty much came in where it was expected. The more important Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers followed, and both confirmed the US economy is continuing to recover; albeit at a slow pace. Industrial production increased .1% in February, and Capacity Utilization also increased to 72.7%. This data got the day started off right for dollar bulls, and the greenback shot up.

    ...
  • Traders fear Chinese 'bubbles'....

    In This Issue..

    * Traders fear Chinese 'bubbles'...
    * Bollard leaves rates unchanged... ...
    * Aussie dollar rallies...
    * Pound sterling rallies, but it can't last...

    Good morning, Chuck headed out the door with a huge smile on his face yesterday as he heads down to spring training. With Chuck down in Florida, he handed the keyboard over to me for the rest of March. I am excited to be able to bring you the Pfennig over the next few weeks, and appreciate the opportunity to share my thoughts on the currency markets with all the loyal readers. For those of you who are new to the Pfennig, I have been told my style is a bit more 'dry' than Chuck's (I can't even come close to his encyclopedic knowledge of lyrics); and I typically get the Pfennig sent out a bit later than Chuck. But I will try my best to keep everyone informed and get this out in a timely manner. Lets get started....
  • Japanese Investment Trusts To Buy A$'s?

    In This Issue..
    * Currencies recover from Discount rate hike...
    * Gold recovers too...
    * An idea for Greece...
    * Loonies fueled by Oil and Gold...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Happy Birthday George Washington! One of my fave past Presidents for sure! And I'm so excited about this, it can't wait until the last paragraph... How about that U.S. Men's Hockey VS Canada game last night? WOW! I had a reader ask me a couple of months ago why I didn't mention the U.S. Under 20 men's hockey Championship, which came against Canada... So there, hopefully I made up for that missing comment!

    Well... Front and Center this morning... Let's start with this... Consumer prices rose 0.2% in January, equaling the increases in December and November. Market expectations going into the report had been for a slightly larger 0.3% rise. Core prices surprisingly fell 0.1% in January following the 0.1% rise recorded in December and the flat reading in November. On a year-over-year basis, the overall CPI index rose 2.6% in December....
  • China Puts The Brakes On!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion sets in, on China's moves...
    * Now, we know what's going on with the TIC's!
    * Germany to step in to save Greece?
    * Honkers losing value VS the dollar...


    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! As I understand it, we are in for some Monsoon like rain today and the next couple of days... Living in a little river town, and having a creek at the back of my property, lends itself to cause me to worry when I hear things like Monsoon like rains expected... But... It's mother nature, I can't do a thing to stop it, so, I carry on... But worrying while I carry on!

    The rain is falling on the currencies too... The dollar has rebounded very quickly the past few days, and there are no roadblocks right now. The risk takers in the markets are running for safety again, sent running by China's decision to curb lending and attempt to slow growth before their economy overheats......
  • Back To the Greece Debacle...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar rallies overnight...
    * Gold loses $10...
    * Retail Sales for December are negative!
    * Chinese games with the renminbi continue...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I said on the way to work, as I hit each stop light on green, that it was going to be a Fantastico Friday! I mean, why not? 1. it's a Friday, 2. it's a payday Friday, 3. it's the start of a 3-day Holiday weekend! Shoot Rudy, I thought to myself, as I drove to work, 'nothing can spoil this day'...

    But... Then I got to work, turned on the currency screens, and it hit me like a slap in the face! The euro has led the non-dollar currencies down VS the dollar overnight... After spending 3 days this week, hovering back and forth over and under the 1.45 handle, the euro finally succumbed to some selling......