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  • U.S. Companies To Repatriate Profits?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * More deficit spending...
    * 10-year yields at 3 month highs...
    * A nice 9-year run for the non-dollar currencies...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The last Monday of 2009! And Yes... I'm Baaaaaacccckkkkk! Bet you were wishing I would remain on vacation through to the New Year... That's OK, I was wishing for the same thing last night! HA! I hope your Christmas or other celebration was grand... Mine was... Little Delaney Grace stole the show... I sat there watching her, thinking, how great it must be to not have a care in the world, except if her 'baby' needed changing!

    To not have to worry about deficit spending, knuckleheads making decisions against the wishes of their constituents, nut cakes running around shooting off missiles, and ramping up nuclear capabilities, and the beat goes on... The beat goes on......
  • Roll call on the desk...

    In This Issue..

    * Roll call on the desk...
    * Markets believe US rates will move higher...
    * Loonie books a gain...
    * AUD$ backs off...

    Good day... The Pfennig inbox was filled with nice notes regarding the Christmas card we sent out yesterday. I want to thank Nicki Storm for taking the picture and creating the card and TJ Wolf for helping to get it sent out. Several of you asked for names to go with the faces, so I will list the names as we appear on the card. The great looking ladies from left to right are Jennifer McLean, Christine Peplow, and Kristin Kuchem. The men from left to right are as follows: Mike Meyer, Ty Keough, Aaron Stevenson, Tim Smith, Chuck Butler, Chris Gaffney, Don Ries, & John Kretchmar. Now you will be able to have a face to put with the voice on the other end of the line when calling the trading desk....
  • Bernanke Squashes Rate Hike Hopes...

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies see some healing...
    * Gold rebounds during the day...
    * Japan to issue $81 Billion stimulus package...
    * Canadian loonie is best performer on the day...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Day one in the new office, seemed to work out pretty smoothly, with only our fax machine giving us fits... As I said yesterday, kudos to the organizers, planners, doers, tech gurus, and anyone else that had anything to do with this move...

    OK... Well, yesterday, I left you with the dollar on the rampage, and the non-dollar currencies and precious metals in the woodshed, having been beaten so badly, they didn't want to come out!

    But that was before Fed Chairman Big Ben Bernanke spoke... So, let me set this up for you... The dollar went on a rampage Friday after the BLS aided Jobs Jamboree surprised the markets with how strong it was, thus giving the market players the idea that the Fed would probably move up their date to get off the schnide and raise rates again... But then along came Ben, slow talking, slow walking Ben... And he set the record straight!...
  • Jobs Jamboree Is A Huge Surprise!

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar rebounds Big Time!
    * Gold loses $46 in one day!
    * High yielders give back the most...
    * Canada's Jobs rebound!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well... We're all 'moved in' to our new digs... Kudos to the planning, organizing, tech gurus, and others that were involved with this move... As it certainly looks great, and so far, is running great!

    Today is Pearl Harbor Day, our 'first' day of infamy... That certainly was a sad day in our country's history...

    Well... That long awaited, and often forgot about that it could happen, correction in the currencies and commodities came full force on Friday. The selling of the currencies and commodities and buying of dollars was reminiscent of the days following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008. The dollar index surges 1.7% on Friday... And Gold... The shiny metal suddenly became the 'not so shiny' metal, as it sold off by $46 in one day... And it hasn't stopped there either... Gold has sold off another $16 overnight to $1,143......
  • RBA Hikes Rates Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Global Growth gets supporting data!
    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * Gold heads toward $1,200!
    * Canada exits their recession...
    RBA Hikes Rates Again!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And... Welcome to December! It's a grand month in my book, even if it does get quite cold! In fact, after reaching 60 degrees today, they say we'll get our first snow tomorrow night! So... Long time readers know all too well, that I'll begin whining about it being cold, and how I've got to go where it's warm... There will be no change from that this year, so be prepared!

    Well... It's a full-on, Risk On day this morning... Front and center, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did indeed raise interest rates last night (their Dec. 1st!), India's economy posted a strong 3rd QTR, and China posted a strong manufacturing number... And! The Dubai thing is waning... But, I want to talk to you about something that I wrote in the Pfennig about a week ago... So, we've got a lot on our plates to go through today, so let's get started!...
  • It's A Risk On Monday!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies recover from Friday sell off!
    * Gold also recovers!
    * RBA to meet tonight!
    * Canada to exit their recession?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your Thanksgiving was special. I had a great time on my day off on Friday, as we went to the country and cut down our Christmas Tree. Quite early for us this year, but you have to take advantage of the 'windows' of time when they pop open! I have to say something front and center this morning though... Last week when I would say we need to give thanks to groups of people, I missed out on something very special to me... My health... I'm thankful that I was allowed to fight cancer, and be around now when my little granddaughter, Delaney Grace is so darn cute!

    OK... Front and center on the currencies this morning, we have the fears of a default in Dubai, fading, and that brings the risk takers back out... So, we had one day of bloodletting on Friday, and come Monday, it'll be alright, Come Monday, I'll be holding you tight, no wait! Come Monday, the tourniquet had been applied, and things are back on track. The Big Dog, euro is off the porch, chasing the dollar down the street once again, and is trading at 1.5050, as I begin to write this morning.

    ...
  • Green Light, Green Light!

    In This Issue..

    * FOMC minutes make it a Risk On Day!
    * Gold hits $1,180!
    * Germany's ZEW is bang on with their forecast!
    * Russia to buy loonies?

    It's a Risk On Day, full on, no 'kind of' today! Or at least that's how it looks as I begin to write this morning... The Big Dog, euro, is back over 1.50 this morning, and Gold is trading at $1,177! What brought about this full on Risk On day?

    Well... It was the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes... And, when I read what the Fed Heads had to say, I had one song in my mind... Hey! You! Get off of my cloud! Because that's where their collective heads are with these minutes, folks... The Fed Heads viewed the U.S. economy on firmer footing and expects the growth to continue in the 4th QTR... Yeah, right, and I've got some swamp land I'd like to sell you! Snake Oil salesmen these guys!

    Any way... The Fed Heads also said that the dollar's depreciation had been 'orderly'... With no mention of doing anything to stop the depreciation! Green light, Green light, Green light... How many of these Green lights do traders and you need to realize that the Fed isn't going to stop the dollar's decline? And How about the Treasury? Oh! That's right, they're too busy shoving negative yields down people's throats! OK, I'm getting all ticked off, and I really don't feel like doing that today, so I'm going to talk about something else, fast!...
  • Treasury Issuance Hits Record Amounts!

    In This Issue..

    * It's a Risk On Day... Kind of...
    * Gold hits $1,171!
    * Germany's IFO hits a 15-month high!
    * Even the NY Times talks about deficit spending!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Risk 'kind of' On Day... Which I believe will be difficult to hold on to as we draw closer to Thursday. The volume will dry up, like I said yesterday like using a Sham Wow (Vince where are you?) and... There will be all kinds of position squaring ahead of Thursday, for many traders, including yours truly, will be making this a 4-day holiday weekend, and good traders do NOT leave themselves out on a line with open trades before leaving for 4 days!...
  • We Won't Get Fooled Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Bernanke digs out some old words...
    * Risk on, Risk off...
    * Brazil to have a different meeting outcome?
    * Winter Olympics are in Canada...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! What a ride on Mr. Toad (Bernanke's) Wild Ride yesterday for the currencies! Gold? Well, at one point in the day, Gold had shot up $24 on the day! It topped out at $1,142... The shiny metal then gave some back on profit taking, but Whew! Gold holders have got to love it! Those that keep waiting for a pull-back... Well, they might be still waiting when the cows come home...

    Yesterday, we had a couple of Fed Heads talking, but the Big Kahuna, stood out, and moved the markets with his statements... Here's the skinny......
  • German Business Confidence Slides...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * $81 Billion in Treasury auctions this week!
    * Fitch fans the flames of a fire in the U.K....
    * Aussie Business Confidence rises...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I didn't start out this Tuesday on the right foot, and now I'm really running late! Oh well...

    The non-dollar currencies didn't move much yesterday, the euro bumped up and down against the 1.50 figure, while the A$ did the same against 93-cents, and Swiss against parity... So the currencies are trading in the same clothes they went to bed in last night!

    The Big Dog, euro, did attempt to move stronger into the 1.50 level, but that move was thwarted by a poor reading of German Investor Confidence this morning. German Investor Confidence as measured by the think tank ZEW, reported that their index had fallen to 51.1 this month VS the 56 in October. Most of those Germans surveyed said that they expect the economic recovery to be slow once the Gov't removes the stimulus in the economy. So... Previous euphoria is being replaced by realism... But that's OK... Better to have a reality grip on things than to go around thinking that everything is seashells and balloons......
  • 3rd QTR GDP To Lift Our Spirits?

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound a bit VS the dollar..
    * Bill Gross on the dollar...
    * Norway raises rates!
    * RBNZ lifts easing bias!

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you once again! It's not raining at the moment, but rain is forecast for today, thus the Thunderin' Thursday name! Rain today, tomorrow and who knows when it will stop... I'm thinking of buying the blueprints to build an Ark!

    Front and Center this morning, we have the non-dollar currencies showing some healing as stock futures are positive. What's driving this new found positive feeling in the risk assets? Well, it's all about the first reading of 3rd QTR GDP today, which... Is expected to show that the U.S. economy came out of the recession in the quarter. Of course, I'll be looking for the Gov't spending portion of the GDP, but other media outlets won't, and the markets will get back to looking for higher yields, which you can not get in the U.S.!

    ...
  • Jobless recovery?? Not going to happen....

    In This Issue..

    * Leading indicators up, but employment down...
    * 11 million new jobs in China...
    * Pound sterling gets pounded...
    * A Great Day for EverBank...

    Good day...and happy Friday! It has been a fairly busy week here at EverBank, with the issuance of another big BRIC MarketSafe CD, the maturity of another MarketSafe, and a big acquisition (more on that later). While things were a bit crazy at EverBank, the currency markets were fairly uneventful. The dollar started the day off with a move up after a positive report on US leading indicators, but it gave back most of the gains as the trading day wore on. At the end of the day, only one currency moved more than 1% vs. the greenback, with the pound sterling dropping almost 1.5%.

    ...
  • Will History Repeat Itself?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * A$'s and C$'s to parity?
    * Reaching 40% of expenditures...
    * Gold & Oil on the rise once again...


    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long day on the desk for me yesterday, left me draggin' the line... But I'm rested and refreshed again this morning, so let's get to the Pfennig for today! The Finance Ministers of the Eurozone met yesterday, as I told you, and they've tried to stem the euro's rise... But, they'll need more than words to get the job done! And so, we begin a new day...

    Front and Center this morning, the currencies, which had given back ground overnight to the dollar, are back in rally mode, and are taking liberties with the dollar once more. For most of the night that was not the case, though. The dollar had rallied back and sent the euro, for instance, to the 1.48 handle, after the single unit spent yesterday at 1.49 and change... There seemed to be a move to the dollar, but that didn't last long, and the currencies are once again rallying VS the dollar this morning, and the euro has pushed to 1.4970 as I write......
  • RBA's Stevens Turns On The Green Light!

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar bounces back a bit...
    * Euro retreats from highs...
    * Is the economic recovery for real?
    * Ignored data...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I believe it will be a Fantastico Friday as well, because when I go in my car this morning to come to work, the radio was playing, 'It's a Beautiful Morning'... It had to be a sign, right? I certainly hope so any way!

    Well, I'm back! I have to say that I've never been to the mountains of North Georgia before, and they are beautiful... Well, most of the parts of this great country are, when I come to think of it! Well, it was nice to walk in the door yesterday and sit down, close my eyes, and get work off my brain!...
  • More Strong Data Sinks The Dollar...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies near 1-year levels...
    * Canadian loonies are best performer!
    * Dangling a carrot...
    * Oil trades above $72...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Why Tub Thumpin'? Why not? Besides, the non-dollar currencies are darn near where they were a year ago, having a good chunk of the ground they lost during the Financial Meltdown last fall and winter... Not that I'm a cheerleader, but more of a 'this is what I believed would happen, and glad to see a plan come together' kind of guy!

    And since I, unlike throngs of people that like to point out errors, put my beliefs in writing every day... Right out there / here, in the open, for anyone to take pot shots at... But, I learned long ago that there will always be those that disagree, and not to let it upset or change the things I believe...

    ...