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  • N. & S. Korea Exchange Artillery Fire.

    In This Issue.

    * The dollar heats up!

    * Ireland's Gov't to collapse.

    * Eurozone manufacturing soars!

    * Flaherty to balance Canada's budget!

    ...
  • Consumer Confidence Tumbles...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies range trade
    * Aussie CPI prints soft...
    * RBNZ to hike rates tonight...
    * Oil drop pushes loonies lower...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm writing from home again this morning, as I have to deal with my car again. They told me it was fixed, I drove it about 10 miles to find out it wasn't! UGH! I must have the guy that failed 'car repairs' 10 times before passing...

    OK... The currency action yesterday was, while range traded, up and down, and all around. Yesterday morning I told you that the euro had broken above 1.30, and I would check it to see how long it remained there... Well, this time it was more than 10 minutes, and the euro rose to 1.3040... But then the rug was pulled from under the single unit, and it was back below 1.30 it went... In fact, it fell to just above 1.29, before then turning around once again and heading higher, eventually ending the day at 1.30....
  • A Taxing Divorce?

    In This Issue..

    * New Home Sales ignite risk
    * Currencies rally...
    * Oil rises to $79, pushing loonies higher...
    * Deutsche Bank has minimal exposure to GIIPS...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A very long day back in the saddle yesterday for your Pfennig writer. So, I'm dragging the line a bit today... Plus getting in and out of a regular car, for someone with my handicap is not something you'd want see or do! It's a pain! But... My car is in the shop... I certainly hope they get it fixed soon, as that's the vehicle we use to pull our camper to Table Rock Lake! And... We 'were' going to leave on Sunday!

    Well... Yesterday morning, I told you the currencies, for the most part, were flat... That didn't last too much longer... The U.S. printed, what the media and markets thought was a fabulous New Home Sales report, and the rally in risk assets was 'on'! With stocks and currencies in rally mode, Gold and Silver backed off... I'll talk about that trading theme we've seen lately in a minute, but first... Let's talk about the Housing data......
  • No More Stress Tests....

    In This Issue..

    * Stress Tests don't reveal much...
    * Risk Assets should rally...
    * RBNZ meets this week to raise rates...
    * Loonies rally on surge in Oil price...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you... Hopefully, your Monday is working out better than mine has so far... I'm writing from home, with all kinds of technical difficulties this morning. I had car problems and had to turn around and come home. Now, I've not been able to 'connect'... This is starting out about as bad as my trip home from Vancouver on Friday that turned into Saturday!

    Not that you read the letter to hear about my travel problems, but I had to stay the night in Dallas, and fly home Saturday... UGH! So, I'm still beat, and now I have this car problem to deal with as soon as I get this ready to go out!...
  • Canada boosts rates….

    In This Issue..

    * Canada boosts rates...
    * BOE called out for quantitative easing...
    * Indian Rupee to shine...
    * China loosens grip on Hong Kong deposits...

    Good day. We had some pretty unsettled weather come through the area yesterday and last night, with the lightening and thunder producing quite a show. The currency markets, on the other hand, were quite stable. The biggest gainer was the Yen, and the largest loser the Euro; but neither moved more than .65% vs. the US$. Tight ranges across the board for the currency markets....
  • US housing starts suffer…

    In This Issue..

    * Housing starts suffer...
    * Stressful times in Europe...
    * Aussie dollar moves higher...
    * Canada to raise rates...

    The news which drove the markets yesterday was no big surprise for the desk. Homebuilder confidence here in the US dropped to the lowest level since April 2009 as the homebuyer credits expired. Today we will get additional data on the housing market which is expected to show US housing starts continue to fall while foreclosures climb. While prices steadied over the past couple of months there is still a backlog of homes facing foreclosure which will equate to a very slow recovery for the housing markets. And in the US, as the housing goes so does the economy; so the data is not a good sign for our nascent recovery....
  • Central Banks Diversify...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies soften VS the dollar...
    * Another look at Canadian job data...
    * China has Super month of exports!
    * Yen gets rocked by Upper House election...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Congratulations to Spain... The fiesta is on in Spain, as their football (soccer to us) team won the World Cup yesterday. Personally, I think Holland, got the bad end of the stick on two calls that would have turned that game their way. But, it was not to be, and Spain hoisted the cup!

    OK... Well, thanks to Chris for taking over the Pfennig on Friday. I was busy with other things for the day. I sent a note to Chris Friday morning about the Canadian Job report, and he replied that he had already written about it! WOW! Quick on the draw! He beat me to the punch... But, the report was so good it's worth talking about some more! Canadian employment skyrocketed again in June rising by 93,200, almost four times the amount expected by forecasters (+20,000). Add this to the 133,000 jobs created in April/May And you've got the ingredients for a strong quarter of job creation! The unemployment rate fell back to 7.9%, lower than forecasts for an 8.1% print.

    ...
  • Aussie Job Creation Soars Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on Wednesday...
    * And hold on to gains overnight!
    * Loonies outperform on the day...
    * More 'an inconvenient debt'...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It sure has been a Tub Thumpin' Thursday so far, as the Asian and European markets are hopping, and in Australia, the jobs just keep coming! All that and more on this Tub Thumpin' Thursday, that, as our little Christine would tell me is 'my Friday'!

    OK... Front and Center this morning, yesterday I told you, well, let's just go to the archives and see what I told you word for word... Pfennig 7/7/10: 'Today, we'll see the latest labor report from Australia. In recent months, the jobs data has consistently surprised to the upside each month, so it's not like going out on a limb to say that I expect the job creation to be better than the +15,000 that's forecast.'...
  • Gold Falls Below $1,200...

    In This Issue..

    * A Risk Off day...
    * Currencies rally on Tuesday...
    * Chinese bank has strong IPO...
    * Kicking the can down the street...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! It was a Terrific Tuesday for the currencies VS the dollar, it was not a Terrific Tuesday for Gold, and the Cardinals!

    Front and Center this morning, Gold is retreating again today and has fallen well below $1,200... Here's the skinny... Yesterday, it was announced that China's Agricultural Bank of China reported a very successful public offering, raising more than $22 Billion. Now, what does this have to do with a Gold sell off I hear you saying? Ahhh grasshopper... Come, sit, let's discuss...

    Basically, it's like this... If a Chinese Bank can pull off a very successful IPO without breaking a sweat, then the daggers can be put away on a global risks, and that could be seen in the performance of equities all across the board yesterday....
  • Employment Disappoints...

    In This Issue..

    * Fundamentals creep back into markets...
    * Dollar gets sold...
    * RBA keeps rates unchanged...
    * U.K. makes right moves...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Did you have a grand Independence Day Holiday Weekend? I sure did! I got to see two ballgames, one very bad, one good. Spend time with the kids, friends, and relax a little... WOW! Now that I think of it, the weekend was more grand than I first thought!

    The currencies traded yesterday, but in very tight ranges, as the U.S. was on holiday. This morning, the bias is to sell dollars, much like it was on Friday before the liquidity of Europe went to the pubs... Let's go back now, and revisit Friday's action...

    Well... More proof that the double dip is coming on Friday......
  • G-20, Schmee 20!

    In This Issue..

    * No clear direction from G-20...
    * A bias to sell dollars this morning...
    * Those guys are wrong, and I'm right!
    * Riksbank to hike rates this week?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend that feels like it went by in a flash! WOW! Don't know how that happened, but it did... This coming weekend will be a 3-day Holiday weekend, so hopefully that 'went by in a flash' feeling doesn't repeat itself!

    Well... This past weekend was the G-20 meeting, and the anticipated brawl between the U.S. and Germany on spending VS cost cutting... Well, the brawl didn't happen, instead they agreed to say that they will 'tackle deficits once economic recoveries are assured'... Which here in the U.S. means... NEVER! Not that the economic recovery won't eventually come along, but that our lawmakers aren't going to stop spending... However, there are elections that might just change their minds, eh?

    ...
  • ‘For Much Longer’...

    In This Issue..

    * Aussie PM resigns!
    * Aussie mining tax is dead!
    * New Home Sales plummet 33%!
    * Fed is not so "cocky" any longer...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because of some good, no great news from Australia overnight! It certainly isn't because of the Housing data that printed yesterday! And the Fed isn't so 'cocky' about the economy suddenly... Hmmm... These things and more, as we explore our Tub Thumpin' Thursday, so let's go!

    Front and Center this morning, Julia Gillard became Australia's first female prime minister after Kevin Rudd stepped aside as leader of the governing Labor Party, paving the way for the government to drop a controversial new 40% levy on mining profits that has damaged its standing in voter polls.

    ...
  • Re-Thinking China...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets sell off...
    * Is China trying to appease G-20?
    * Aussie commodity profits skyrocket!
    * Gold sells off by $22...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Are you full? You know appetite wise... Probably not, for most of you read the Pfennig in the morning, with a cup o' Joe... The renewed appetite for Risk that the markets were displaying yesterday disappeared yesterday afternoon... The markets were full of risk, I guess... For the selling was swift, and damaging to the levels the currencies, commodities, and stocks had gained overnight on the news that China would allow more flexibility in the renminbi...

    See how fickle these markets / traders are? Very! You had a day that everyone was looking forward to, China allowing the renminbi to gain VS the dollar again, and just threw it to the roadside... UGH!

    ...
  • Big Al Talks Deficit Financing...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies hold gained ground VS dollar...
    * Swiss franc really shines!
    * Japan borrows a line from the U.S....
    * The Labor problem grows...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, especially if you are a Los Angeles Lakers fan! Me? I've always been a fan of the Celtics, but since it's a long distance directory assistance relationship, it's not that big of a deal to me that they lost. When I was a kid, the Hawks were in St. Louis, and we won a championship, with Bob Pettit... OK, I was only 3... But my dad loved to talk about it!

    Well... We've had a day where the currencies gained VS the dollar, and then held their ground, for the most part... No profit taking, no debt crisis fears trading, just held their ground VS the dollar... Now, some would say... 'that's a sign that they've hit resistance and can't overtake it, which is not good for a rising asset'... But, me? Well, I would say, and will say... 'I find this to be refreshing. The last thing you want to see is an asset, which in this case is a currency like the euro, run up too much, too fast, for that WILL give the markets reason to sell. I prefer the slow gradual, stealth-like moves in currencies, so that they don't gain any attention, until the rally is well established.'

    ...
  • A Return To Debit Crisis Trading...

    In This Issue..

    * Strong euro rally fizzles out overnight...
    * Russia to add C$ and A$'s?
    * IMF sides with U.S. on Chinese currency policy...
    * Aussie housing starts are strong...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday... Man! Did we have some torrential downpours yesterday! The creek that my yard backs to was 'a risen'! I can't imagine all the rainouts of ballgames this spring... It's one of the things that drove me crazy, when I was a baseball manager...

    OK... The rain was coming down hard on the dollar yesterday too... But, this morning, when I turn on the screens, it looks like that dollar selling that went on all day yesterday, has had the brakes applied. I would say slammed on, but it all happened while I was sleeping, so I don't really know for sure!...