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  • Who Owes Who?

    * Trading theme pushes yen higher... * Settlement day for Lehman CDO's... * Oil price fall hurts loonies... * Gold climbs back above $900... ** Who Owes Who? Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It certainly doesn't look as though it will be a Fantastico Friday in stocks, as yesterday was a bloodletting, and overnight the Japanese stock market sold off 11%, and Europe is down about 9% at this point. UGH! This is getting quite ugly... But remember what I've been saying this week about the currency trading theme... When things look bleak, the dollar goes up... And when it looks as though all the stimulus might work, the dollar sells off... This has been quite evident in Japanese yen overnight, as stocks sold off 11%, the currency rallied to a 98 handle from 101 yesterday... And... Then in dollar trading, other than yen, the dollar is stronger this morning, pushing the euro back to the 1.35 handle. The high yielders, which enjoyed a day in the sun yesterday before U.S. stocks took a turn on the slippery slope, got whacked hard overnight! UGH!...
  • A New Trading Theme...

    * Coordinated rate cuts...* Did the Fed reignite soaring inflation?* More pain in Iceland...* Revisiting the 90's in Japan... ** A New Trading Theme... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... How about those wily veteran Central Bankers? They all got together and decided to cut rates... The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) went first with their 100 BPS cut, and opened the rate cut sea for the rest of the Central Banks around the world. The European Central Bank, The Riksbank (Sweden), Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and the Bank of China all lined up at the rate cut table... The Bank of Japan, The Norges Bank (Norway), and Reserve Bank of New Zealand did not participate. The Bank of Japan doesn't have any rate to cut, The Norges Bank will wait until their regularly scheduled meeting on 10/15, and the RBNZ believes that they have taken their toxic waste bond flu shot......
  • Bailout Package Is Ready...

    * Ready to spend $700 Billion... * Wachovia wants to sell itself... * Dollar rallies hard... * The rot on the vine spreads... ** Bailout Package Is Ready... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A Wonderful Weekend for yours truly, as the weather was Chamber of Commerce like, I got to see all the kids, and little Delaney Grace two days! I also got to enjoy two football games, one that Alex played in, and one that Alex went with me to! Fabulous stuff! OK... The data on Friday was the stuff that should have sent the dollar to the woodshed, but like all the data lately, it just gets swept under the rug, as the market movers are myopic with the Bailout package. Lawmakers worked all weekend to iron out the details of the package, and King Henry (U.S. Treasury Sec.) has announced again that the package has been agreed on by Congress. The vote doesn't actually take place until tomorrow or Wednesday, but that hasn't stopped King Henry from pounding his chest over his latest victory. I like what I heard from former Fed Gov. (and Mark Twain Bank economist) Laurence Meyer, who said: "This has a reasonable chance of pulling back from the brink and having some success, but it's far from certain that will be the case."...
  • Some Healing...

    * largest one-day move up in the euro! * largest one-day move up in Oil! * Gold and Silver rebound! * Renminbi finally moves! ** Some Healing... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I heard from one of my two sisters that live in the Houston area yesterday. They rode out the Hurricane together, have some damage to her house, and is still without electricity. I can't imagine what that's all like. But they are both safe at that's what's important at this point. Well... The euro had it's largest one-day move upward VS the dollar since its inception in 1999, yesterday... We've seen some profit taking in the overnight markets, but just for good measure... I think it appropriate to show that the euro reached 1.48 yesterday... That was a 3.5 euro move, and after falling to a low of 1.3869 on 9/12 (before bouncing big that day), the euro has now recovered about 7%... I would call that "some healing"......
  • Falling In And Out Of Love...

    * Euro sinks to 1-year low... * RBNZ cuts rates 25 BPS... * Carry Trades continue to unwind... * Fannie and Freddie cause problems for banks... ** Falling In And Out Of Love... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Today we mark 7 years since the "monsters" attacked our great nation and thousands of lives were lost needlessly. My blood still boils at the thought of what happened on Sept 11, 2001, and the thoughts of the twin towers coming down still flashes in my mind. 7 years ago today, we witnessed the horrific scenes from terrorists in our country. I recall trying to come up with words the next day, and just couldn't, so I stuck to currencies, in attempt to keep things as normal as they could be. I hope everyone flies their flag today in remembrance of this day 7 years ago. OK... We're seeing a complete meltdown in the currencies this morning, folks.. The euro has fallen to the low 1.39 handle, and all is looking quite bleak for the single unit right now. Our metals trader, Kristin, sent me this note that she came across regarding the euro......
  • A Huge Data Week...

    * Dollar rebounds... * Big Ben's imagination... * More Risk Events... * Inflation lights a fire under the loonie... ** A Huge Data Week... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend that was supposed to be filled with rain, was nothing but sunshine, and beautiful days. For once, I didn't make fun of the weather people that make the forecasts! But, as always, it was too darn short! The alarm went off this morning, and for a minute I thought, "to heck with this, I'm going back to sleep!" But, then as always, I got up to start the day. Well... Recall on Friday, the currencies had rallied very strongly on Thursday, and it looked like a reversal of the month-long dollar rally could be at hand... I had this to say in Friday's Pfennig: "But today is a new day folks... And what happened yesterday is now history... The attitudes could change in a NY minute, and the dollar be back in favor. This is what I'm talking about when I say things are less secure. Wishy-Washy market sentiment leads to very volatile markets, and that's what we saw yesterday... Now, let's move on to today, and see what Bullwinkle has up his sleeve. Hey Rocky, wanna watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat?"...
  • Leading Indicators Fall!

    * Euro rebounds! * Forecasting a severe recession... * Commodities rebound! * Canadian inflation problems... ** Leading Indicators Fall! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Yesterday did indeed turn into a Tub Thumpin' Thursday for the euro, so let's hope today ends up being a Fantastico Friday! Well... The game of "your economy is worse than mine" backfired on the dollar bulls yesterday, as the Leading Indicators printed an awful number. I said yesterday that it was too bad that the markets normally ignored this data... But they didn't yesterday, as the number was so bad, they couldn't ignore it... Sort of like that spoiled rotten bratty kid throwing themselves to the floor of the grocery store, and throwing a temper tantrum because you said they couldn't have a candy bar! If you're next in line to check out at the grocery store, and you want to ignore the child, but you just can't because it's so obnoxious! Well, that's how it was with Leading Indicators yesterday... Here's the skinny......
  • Fed not as hawkish as expected...

    * Fed not as hawkish as expected... * Markets now turn to ECB and BOE... * Canadian dollar slides... * Aussie hit by 1-2 punch.. ** Fed not as hawkish as expected... Good day...I want to start off today's Pfennig by apologizing for those of you who were waiting to receive their Pfennig yesterday. I sent it off at the normal time, but we had some problems with the program which sends it out, so it was delayed in getting delivered. You can always view the current Pfennig at www.dailypfennig.com where we post it first thing in the morning. That website also has archived versions of past pfennigs for your reading pleasure! They tell me the problem has been fixed, so you should get this pfennig right on time. The dollar drifted higher throughout most of the day yesterday as the markets prepared for the FOMC rate announcement. The sentiment driving the dollar higher was that the Fed would sound much more hawkish in order to keep an overall consensus among the FOMC members. Dollar bulls were expecting a signal from Bernanke that an increase in interest rates would be just around the corner. These higher interest rate expectations encouraged traders to take the dollar index back up to just under 74, a level we haven't seen in almost two months....
  • What's Up With The Loonie?

    * Euro trading pattern... * Sterling backs off... * Data cupboard gets restocked... * Rupees disappoint... **What's Up With The Loonie? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I hit all my traffic lights on green this morning, so it's going to be a "good day"! Funny how little things like that put a smile on my face... OK... Another day of watching the euro rise up to 1.5815 and then see it get sold back below the 1.58 figure when the NY boys arrive at their desks. The pattern for the first two days this week has seen that selling in the morning, and then a slow rise in the afternoon, and then back over 1.58 in the overnight markets. That's where we are again this morning......
  • Housing Starts Still Collapsing!

    * Nearing an all-time drop in Housing... * Mishkin says rates can go lower... * Gold continues to recover... * Oil hits $115!...
  • Bank of Canada Makes a Larger Than Expected Cut...

    * Bank of Canada cuts 50 bp... * Trichet supports strong dollar policy... * Swiss economy surprisingly strong.. * Aussie dollar eases... ...