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Have You Seen This?

  • Re-Thinking China...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets sell off...
    * Is China trying to appease G-20?
    * Aussie commodity profits skyrocket!
    * Gold sells off by $22...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Are you full? You know appetite wise... Probably not, for most of you read the Pfennig in the morning, with a cup o' Joe... The renewed appetite for Risk that the markets were displaying yesterday disappeared yesterday afternoon... The markets were full of risk, I guess... For the selling was swift, and damaging to the levels the currencies, commodities, and stocks had gained overnight on the news that China would allow more flexibility in the renminbi...

    See how fickle these markets / traders are? Very! You had a day that everyone was looking forward to, China allowing the renminbi to gain VS the dollar again, and just threw it to the roadside... UGH!

    ...
  • Big Al Talks Deficit Financing...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies hold gained ground VS dollar...
    * Swiss franc really shines!
    * Japan borrows a line from the U.S....
    * The Labor problem grows...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, especially if you are a Los Angeles Lakers fan! Me? I've always been a fan of the Celtics, but since it's a long distance directory assistance relationship, it's not that big of a deal to me that they lost. When I was a kid, the Hawks were in St. Louis, and we won a championship, with Bob Pettit... OK, I was only 3... But my dad loved to talk about it!

    Well... We've had a day where the currencies gained VS the dollar, and then held their ground, for the most part... No profit taking, no debt crisis fears trading, just held their ground VS the dollar... Now, some would say... 'that's a sign that they've hit resistance and can't overtake it, which is not good for a rising asset'... But, me? Well, I would say, and will say... 'I find this to be refreshing. The last thing you want to see is an asset, which in this case is a currency like the euro, run up too much, too fast, for that WILL give the markets reason to sell. I prefer the slow gradual, stealth-like moves in currencies, so that they don't gain any attention, until the rally is well established.'

    ...
  • Jobs Disappoint Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro falls below 1.20...
    * Did we have negative "real" job creation?
    * Canada's labor market is strong...
    * G-20 yields nothing...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was a wonderful jam-packed weekend for yours truly, and when the alarm went off this morning, I had a greater appreciation for 3-day weekends!

    Well... Friday, when I was signing off, I said that suddenly the currencies were getting sold... At that time, it looked as if it might be short-lived... But NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! This was an all-out assault on risk, folks... At when the dust settled in the early afternoon, the euro had fallen below 1.20, for the first time since 2005, and everything other currency was getting whacked too... For the first time all week though, Gold rallied......
  • Risk Aversion Is Back!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro bashing is back!
    * Canadian GDP jumps to 6.1%!
    * RBA keeps rates unchanged
    * 7-U.S. cities have 'junk debt'...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And welcome to June! As Pfennig tradition would have it... June is busting out all over, all over the meadows and the hill! Buds're bustin' outta bushes, And the rompin' river pushes, Ev'ry little wheel that wheels beside the mill! And you thought I was just a 'rock-n-roller!'

    Well... Yesterday while we were honoring the fallen soldiers of today and yesteryear, the Europeans were knocking the stuffing out of the euro once again... This time, it was a story that spread like wildfire regarding the Eurozone economy not being able to have strong growth, because of all their austerity measures... Now... Come on boys! First you slam the euro's fingers in the door (OUCH!) for not cutting deficit spending in a few countries, and when they do show a willingness to cut deficit spending, you the ruler out and smack the euro right across the wrist!

    ...
  • Germany Talks Tough!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro's big rally stalls...
    * Problems with Greek Aid Package?
    * A U.S. debt update... (you're not going to like it!)
    * What about the $53 Billion?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was a wet, and sometimes dangerous weather wise weekend here in St. Louis, as a couple of tornados touched down on Saturday. It's still raining outside, and even though the euro got to get out of the rain for a bit on Friday, it's raining on the euro's parade once again this morning.

    Yes... As I left you on Friday, Greece had announced the activation of an aid package, and momentarily, things looked up for the beleaguered Eurozone. The euro continued to gain throughout the day on Friday, and well, looked like it was about to 'break out'... But that was Friday, and today is Monday... And all the euphoria surrounding Greece on Friday has been thrown out with the bathwater, and it's back to euro bashing this morning......
  • Greek debt is the euro's Sword of Damocles....

    In This Issue..

    * Greek debt crisis continues to hang over the euro...
    * Moody's says the UK and US debt ratings are secure, for now...
    * Swiss National Bank lets the franc appreciate...
    * Lots of data on tap in the US this week...

    Good day, and welcome to another week. The alarm clock seemed to go off an hour early this morning, as my body hasn't yet adjusted to daylight savings. I have heard several reasons for the semi annual adjustment of our clocks, but still don't buy into it. I think everyone should just agree to leave the clocks alone and I for one vote to leave them where they are right now, giving us an extra bit of sunlight in the evenings. We didn't see much sun here in St. Louis this weekend, as a soft spring rain has been coming down for the past 3 days....
  • U.S. States In Deep Trouble!

    In This Issue..

    * A long history of dollar moves...
    * Canadian GDP jumps 5%...
    * U.S. Traders didn't like the Greece package...
    * Getting out of Dodge...

    Good day... A Wonderful Wednesday to you! I hope your Tuesday was Terrific! Day one with just my little buddy Alex and me at home went off without a hitch... I took him to the jazz guitar teacher, and he sounded great! He auditions for the high school jazz band on Thursday. He'll be just a freshman, so it will be quite the uphill battle for him to make the band in his first try... But... He's so darn good!

    Well... I have to say front and center this morning, that while it may have taken the currency traders 1/2 day to realize that Australia had raised rates, to finally begin to push the A$ higher VS the green/peachback... I was beginning to think yesterday that I was going to have to have egg all over my face again, when the A$ didn't respond right away... But it was all right on the night, so it's no egg on the face for me!...
  • Treasury Issuance Hits Record Amounts!

    In This Issue..

    * It's a Risk On Day... Kind of...
    * Gold hits $1,171!
    * Germany's IFO hits a 15-month high!
    * Even the NY Times talks about deficit spending!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Risk 'kind of' On Day... Which I believe will be difficult to hold on to as we draw closer to Thursday. The volume will dry up, like I said yesterday like using a Sham Wow (Vince where are you?) and... There will be all kinds of position squaring ahead of Thursday, for many traders, including yours truly, will be making this a 4-day holiday weekend, and good traders do NOT leave themselves out on a line with open trades before leaving for 4 days!...
  • A Dollar Roadblock!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro goes back and forth over 1.42...
    * Geithner make another promise to China...
    * RBA leaves rates unchanged...
    * The Mogambo on a Tuesday!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... The currencies, led by the euro, ran into a dollar road block yesterday, not once, not twice, but three times... The first two times the euro traded over the 1.42 figure, it fell back, but recovered to again try to remain over 1.42... It was a classic case of profit taking at a line of resistance... But the third time, was no charm for the euro, and thus it ended the day and night sessions below 1.42... But hey! Has this run from 1.2578 on March 1st, been something or what?

    I see where UBS believes this is it for the euro... Sort of like the thought that a star burns the brightest right before it burns out... Hmmm... I guess they believe that the U.S. deficit problems are going to go away... Apparently, they drank the kool-aid from U.S. Treasury Sec. Geithner, who told the Chinese that the U.S. was going to shrink the deficit... He also told them that their assets were 'safe'... Ty sent me something on this that he found yesterday......
  • A New Year’s Jobs Jamboree Friday...

    * Will the ADP report be a good indicator? * China to slow treasury purchases? * Gold as a store of wealth... * Dealing with the devil... ** A Jobs Jamboree Friday... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, as it is forecast to get to 50 degrees today here in St. Louis. Never mind that tomorrow's high will be 29! It doesn't take away from today! What a trading day in the currencies yesterday... Whew! It's a Jobs Jamboree Friday, so let's not beat around the bush... It's time to Jamboree! Today is the day the Gov't prints the December Jobs Jamboree, and if Wednesday's ADP report did what they said it was going to, and that is change their methodology to mirror the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) then this morning's Jobs Jamboree will be a nightmare. Of course not the kind of nightmare that the over 2.5 million people that lost jobs in 2008 had! I was once in those numbers, as our old Bank, Mark Twain Bank, was bought by a bigger bank, Mercantile Bank, and Mercantile decided after a few months to perform ethnic cleansing of Mark Twain employees... I called it "my retirement" but with a 3 year old at home and on my lap most of the day, "retirement" couldn't last too long! My point is that you don't know the emptiness and failure you feel when they show you the door... So my thoughts are always with those that lose their jobs......