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  • Inflation Is Coming!

    In This Issue.

    * Selling Triggers more selling.

    * ECB & German Gov't different opinions.

    * New Zealand experiences aftershocks.

    * Budget Deficit to exceed $1 Trillion again!

    ...
  • Employment Disappoints...

    In This Issue..

    * Fundamentals creep back into markets...
    * Dollar gets sold...
    * RBA keeps rates unchanged...
    * U.K. makes right moves...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Did you have a grand Independence Day Holiday Weekend? I sure did! I got to see two ballgames, one very bad, one good. Spend time with the kids, friends, and relax a little... WOW! Now that I think of it, the weekend was more grand than I first thought!

    The currencies traded yesterday, but in very tight ranges, as the U.S. was on holiday. This morning, the bias is to sell dollars, much like it was on Friday before the liquidity of Europe went to the pubs... Let's go back now, and revisit Friday's action...

    Well... More proof that the double dip is coming on Friday......
  • Re-Thinking China...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets sell off...
    * Is China trying to appease G-20?
    * Aussie commodity profits skyrocket!
    * Gold sells off by $22...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Are you full? You know appetite wise... Probably not, for most of you read the Pfennig in the morning, with a cup o' Joe... The renewed appetite for Risk that the markets were displaying yesterday disappeared yesterday afternoon... The markets were full of risk, I guess... For the selling was swift, and damaging to the levels the currencies, commodities, and stocks had gained overnight on the news that China would allow more flexibility in the renminbi...

    See how fickle these markets / traders are? Very! You had a day that everyone was looking forward to, China allowing the renminbi to gain VS the dollar again, and just threw it to the roadside... UGH!

    ...
  • Brazil Hikes Rates Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally holds on to gains...
    * Rate hikes begin to add up...
    * Trade & Budget Deficit monsters...
    * Canada posts a trade surplus!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Let's go on record right out of the starters' blocks this morning, and say this will be a Fantastico Friday, eh?

    Well... What a rally in the risk assets yesterday! And for once, when the rally fizzled out yesterday afternoon, profits weren't taken in the overnight markets... Instead we saw a consolidation, if you will, of the price gains on Thursday in the overnight markets. That's nice to see, eh? For it had been the pattern of recent times to just sell off any gains, and end up back on square one, or even lower than the starting level. So, like I said, this was very nice to see... I checked the levels last night before I went to bed, and noticed that there had not been any sell off, and thought, what a great Friday it would be tomorrow, if these can hold throughout the night... And they did!...
  • US Dollar drifts, waiting for direction...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar drifts waiting for direction...
    * How to profit from China's next move...
    * Brazil's real predicted to rise 10%...
    * An update from Chuck...

    Good day, and welcome to Tuesday. The Cardinals brought home a winner for the huge crowds down at Busch Stadium yesterday. As I mentioned, opening day is holiday around St. Louis, and Albert Pujols and his teammates gave the fans a terrific show. Currency traders seemed to take the day off yesterday along with thousands of Cardinal fans. The dollar drifted through the day, and continued to trade sideways in overnight trading in Asia....
  • A Mixed Bad of Data...

    In This Issue..

    * A Bias to take on risk...
    * China's Factory Output soars!
    * Brazil exports "stuff"!
    * Calling a bottom in Gold...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The 40 mph winds have stopped, which makes the cold a little more bearable... So... With the sun out yesterday, I would have to say that today will be a Fantastico Friday... Our office get together is tonight, should be a good time...

    Well... Yesterday, the non-dollar currencies looked like they were ready to break out of their funk against the dollar, led by the high yielders of Australia, and especially New Zealand... But, that flamed out as the day went on as the data for the U.S. was mixed, and did not give anyone a warm and fuzzy about the general direction of the economy....
  • Silence Is Always Golden...

    In This Issue..

    * It's a Risk On day!
    * Commodity Currencies have the "stuff"!
    * Gold's one-day window slams shut!
    * RBA to not wait 2 months to hike rates!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! We're stuck in the mud with the rain again, but according to the weather people it should end tomorrow... Geez Louise, I guess it could be snow, which would have crippled this city by now!

    Well... The currencies gave back all that ground they gained the day before on Mr. Toad's Wild Ride, yesterday... But, have turned around this morning in the European session as Eurozone stocks are up, and whenever equities trade with some zip in their step, it has been good for the Big Dog, euro......
  • Germany & France Post 3rd QTR Growth...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion fuels dollar rally yesterday...
    * Eurozone growth may stop the Risk Aversion...
    * Budget Deficit is a record $176.4 Billion!
    * Euro, Swiss, Aussie, Norway, all cheaper today!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Let's try to make this a Fantastico Friday as well! The Risk Aversion that was creeping into the currency markets yesterday really took hold in the U.S. trading session, which meant the dollar was being bought once more, along with Japanese yen...

    It just makes me laugh out loud, when I write that the 'safe haven currencies' during Risk Aversion trading are the dollar and yen... These two countries have debt up to their eyeballs, pay no interest on their deposits, and have a leadership deficiency... (ok, before every begins to think that I'm ripping the president again, I'm not... I'm talking about the Central Bank, and lawmakers of each country)...
  • Consumer Confidence Drops!

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar continues to hammer!
    * Jim Rogers on the dollar rally...
    * C. Fred Bergsten talks of a dollar alternative...
    * Lord Monckton's thoughts...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! It's still raining here... Quite frankly, I don't know how people that live in rainy areas do it! I don't mind rainy days, as long as they are sprinkled in with the days of sunshine!

    Well... The dollar rally that began for a number of rumored reasons continued on yesterday... Remember when I said on Monday that the data this week should show us that the economy is healing somewhat, which would be bad for the dollar? Well, that thought got cold water thrown on it yesterday when Consumer Confidence surprisingly declined last month...

    You know how I like to question just what people that were surveyed for this Consumer Confidence report are so confident about? Well, apparently, the Conference Board surveyed the wrong people this month! Consumer confidence in the U.S. declined in October to 47.7 versus expectations of a 53.5 reading. Both consumers' perceptions of current conditions and their expectations for the future declined. Hmmm......
  • A Loss Of Confidence In the U.S.?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * Euros and Aussie dollars lead the pack...
    * $1.42 Trillion Deficit for 2009!
    * TIC's data gets ignored again!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Another 'lost' weekend for our college and professional football teams! UGH! The sun finally came out this weekend. YAHOO! It felt so good to be in the sun again... The TICs data was something that needed to be dealt with on Friday, but once again the markets ignored it... I'm telling you, this smells like, walks like, and talks like a gag order... OK... Let's get going this Marvelous Monday!

    The non-dollar currencies all drifted on Friday, with the dollar seeing a bit of buying... But that's all been thrown to the curb this morning, as the non-dollar currencies, for the most part, are in rally mode VS the dollar.

    ...
  • Gold Soars To An All-Time High!

    In This Issue..

    * It was all about Gold yesterday!
    * Commodity Currencies take the lead today...
    * The story behind the euro's non-move...
    * Budget data prints today...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! What a day for Gold yesterday! WOW! In case you were trapped in a cave and didn't hear the news... Gold, which I said yesterday morning looked like it was going to take out its all-time high, did take out its all-time high, and not just take it out! Gold pushed past the all-time high of $1,033.90, and didn't stop until it was trading $1,047 and change! WOW! No check that... Double WOW!

    The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate hike the previous night, opened the door to this run by Gold, as the Gold Bugs all came out and bought the preferred investment to counter soaring inflation... You see, if the RBA is raising rates, when most every other Central Bank is stuck in the mud with near zero rates, the RBA must see something, eh?...
  • Whiplash Wednesday!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound VS the dollar...
    * Aussie and kiwi lead the currencies higher...
    * Data and Central Bank speeches today...
    * Gold rebounds back to $1,000!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you... Instead of a 'turn around Tuesday', we're seeing a whiplash Wednesday! And for once in a month of Sundays, the Big Dog, euro didn't lead the other little dogs (currencies) off the porch to chase the dollar down the street!

    No... This time it was the currencies of Australia and New Zealand that led the charge VS the dollar... The euro has taken up the charge since opening the doors to a new day of trading in Europe, so... It looks like it's a 'take the dollar to the woodshed day'......
  • Currencies Hold Their Gains...

    In This Issue..

    * Consumer Borrowing Collapses...
    * What's up with sterling?
    * Option ARMs get ready to reset...
    * Gold falls back to below $1,000...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... The currencies, for the most part, kept the heat on the dollar throughout the day and in the overnight markets. The euro, did rise to 1.45 and change yesterday, while it is hovering right at that figure this morning, so it did give a little bit back.

    There were no big announcements last night like we saw on Monday, so the currencies didn't have anything to push them further. In fact, there may be a 'letting the dust settle' period of time, with the Big Dog, euro, before we see any further advancement, given the euro's huge gains yesterday......
  • German Business Confidence Continues to Surprise!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally in early morning Tuesday
    * But see profit taking later in the day...
    * Looking for yield?
    * China expected to get back to 10% growth!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! When I signed off yesterday morning, I told you that I was watching a mini-rally in the currencies. Well, that mini-rally turned into a real rally as the morning went along. Especially, after the risk assets got a boost from the Consumer Confidence revival. Yes, Brother Love's traveling salvation show revival, a.k.a. Consumer Confidence was much stronger than forecast, and the risk assets took off!

    By mid-afternoon, the euro was pushing 1.4350, and all the 'little dogs' were following along with their own version of a rally VS the dollar. But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum, and profit taking set in... Oh brother! Can't these guys wait until there is really a BIG move before they take profits? Oh well, I know, you're saying, 'But Chuck, don't you always say that it's not a profit until you take it?' Yes, that's correct... But the rest of us just want to have a diversifying asset in our investment portfolio, and are not interested in 1/2 euro moves to take a 'profit'!

    ...
  • Making The Fed Reserve Accountable!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies sold overnight
    * But rebound in early morning trading...
    * China throws cold water on stock values...
    * German exports rival the Big Kahuna!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I returned home from San Francisco last night, and am back in the saddle today! Not the way I like to travel, where I get a day when returning home to recharge the batteries, but it is what it is... I did an interview with MarketWatch yesterday morning, talking about... Well, what else? The deficits, and diversification! My presentations in S.F. were well attended... On Saturday, my power point froze up, but I carried on in spite of the technical difficulties!

    You know... I really, heard a lot of people talking about the rumor / conspiracy story that there will be a bank holiday at the end of the month (this weekend) and the Gov't will announce major changes to the currency... Now, before anyone begins to believe that I am on board with that rumor / conspiracy story, STOP! I am NOT! I've read all the theories, and I've heard all the information regarding this, but just do not understand why this would be done... So... I just wanted to throw it out there, and let you all know where I stand on this......