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  • Ben has spoken...

    In This Issue.

    * No curveballs from Ben

    * 1st quarter GDP today

    * S&P cuts Japan's outlook

    * Aussie inflation rises

    ...
  • Game off for risk trades...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar hits 3 month high...
    * Norges bank raises .25%...
    * Fed repeats call to keep rates low...
    * Inflation in India rises...

    Good day...And welcome to Thursday. Chuck started his Christmas vacation, so I have the honor of bringing you the daily missive for the next week or so. The dollar continued to gain strength throughout the day as investors waited on news from the FOMC. Overnight, Greece sustained another rate cut, this time by S&P, which caused investors to move back toward the 'safety' of the US$. The news caused the dollar to rally to a 3 month high vs. the Euro and post gains across the board. The currency markets are becoming a bit volatile again, and much of this volatility can be linked back to the return of a transaction which dominated currency markets over the past decade....
  • Retail Sales Soar!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on Retail Sales!
    * China likes investments in Canada...
    * Big Ben the 'inflation fighter'...
    * Gold climbs to $1,018!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Good news for me this morning, the pain in my left knee has subsided... Now, If I could just get that swelling to go down, I'd be in tall cotton! This has been quite the ordeal on the old Pfennig writer, and one that I will be glad to put in the rear view mirror!

    Well... When I turned on the currency screens this morning, the euro was trading with a 1.47 handle! WOW! It just skipped to my Lou right through the 1.46 handle, eh? It began yesterday afternoon, the dollar was getting sold on the news of a strong Retail Sales figure, more on that in a minute, and the euro was edging up the 1.46 ladder... The move to get it past 1.47 came in the overnight markets... Now, having gotten you all lathered up about 1.47, I have to say that since I turned on the currency screens, the euro has lost ground back to 1.4688, but still... That's quite an impressive move from yesterday morning, eh?

    ...
  • US leading indicators push higher...

    In This Issue..

    * US leading indicators push higher...
    * Labor department admits errors...
    * Ben Bernanke heads to the hill...
    * PIMCO suggests buying emerging markets...

    Good day... A quiet trading day to start the week off yesterday. As I turn on the computers this morning the dollar index is trading right at the level it was yesterday morning. The currencies were up a bit through most of Monday's trading day, but the dollar came back in Asian trading leaving us right about back where we started.

    The only data released yesterday was the index of US leading indicators which rose slightly in June for a third consecutive month. The numbers gave a bit of hope for all of the bulls, with many exclaiming that the US economy has turned a corner and the recession has ended. I am not so sure, as rising unemployment and continued weakness in the housing market will likely hold any recovery back....
  • Desperately Seeking Yield...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally...
    * More on the BRIC's...
    * New Zealand's GDP contracts..
    * Bernanke gets grilled!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The end of what seemed to be a very long week... The last weekend in June, can you believe that? Next week, we'll be getting ready for the 4th of July celebrations! WOW!

    Well... What a volatile week it has been in the currencies! Up, down, all around, and settling back to levels that we saw before the Fed's FOMC meeting earlier this week. Suddenly, investors are looking for yield again... Looks like they are "Desperately Seeking (not Susan) Yield! And why not? The Fed, and the Bank of Canada (BOC) have come out and said that there will be no interest rate hikes until we've turned quite a few pages on the 2010 calendar....
  • Waiting on the FOMC meeting...

    * FOMC to cut further... * Bernanke turns his back on inflation... * Kiwi and Australia rally... * Gold continues to shine... ** Waiting on the FOMC meeting... Good day...and welcome to another week, hopefully the currency markets can continue their assault on the dollar which began a few weeks ago. The dollar index peaked back on November 21, and with the exception of a few days around the beginning of December, the greenback has consistently fallen vs. most of the major currencies. Friday was no exception, and the dollar continued to give back gains over the weekend with the Euro climbing back over $1.35 for the first time in two months....
  • A Huge Data Week...

    * Dollar rebounds... * Big Ben's imagination... * More Risk Events... * Inflation lights a fire under the loonie... ** A Huge Data Week... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend that was supposed to be filled with rain, was nothing but sunshine, and beautiful days. For once, I didn't make fun of the weather people that make the forecasts! But, as always, it was too darn short! The alarm went off this morning, and for a minute I thought, "to heck with this, I'm going back to sleep!" But, then as always, I got up to start the day. Well... Recall on Friday, the currencies had rallied very strongly on Thursday, and it looked like a reversal of the month-long dollar rally could be at hand... I had this to say in Friday's Pfennig: "But today is a new day folks... And what happened yesterday is now history... The attitudes could change in a NY minute, and the dollar be back in favor. This is what I'm talking about when I say things are less secure. Wishy-Washy market sentiment leads to very volatile markets, and that's what we saw yesterday... Now, let's move on to today, and see what Bullwinkle has up his sleeve. Hey Rocky, wanna watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat?"...
  • Fighting Deflation Instead of Inflation?

    * A bounce in the euro overnight... * Iran tests long range missiles... * Japan's Machine Orders soar! * Is Big Ben giving us a hint? ** Fighting Deflation Instead of Inflation? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Things settled down a bit yesterday, with the rumors of bailout for Fannie and Freddie Macs fading, and some awful Housing data being swept under the rug. The dollar gained back the ground it had lost to the euro the previous day, and Japan printed a very strong Machine Orders report... And now Iran tests long range missiles... All that and more as we begin our Wednesday... OK, front and center this morning... The Housing data from yesterday. Since the media decided to sweep this under the rug, I thought I would make certain that at least Pfennig Readers were aware of the rot on the Housing vine. The index of Pending Home resales fell -4.7% in April, a much larger decline than the "experts" forecast. I think what you're seeing here is simply that would be buyers are holding off as they expect further declines in prices.....
  • Paulson Speaks With A "Double Tongue"

    * The U.S. economy in a wreck! * More problems to come... * Funky accounting at the Fed... * SNB leaves rates unchanged... **Paulson Speaks With A "Double Tongue" - Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I was alone last night, and decided to write... Oh Boy! Are you, dear reader, in trouble when I begin writing at night for the next morning! My Cardinals were losing again, so my attention turned to putting down all these thoughts that keep coming into my head... Like Michael Keaton in Night Shift (what a great movie!) I need a recorder to put all these thoughts down... Like... Feed the mayo to the tuna! OK... Front and Center this morning, the euro's rally that went on all day yesterday and into the early Asian session (all the way to 1.5580) ended this morning... Someone, somewhere decided that the U.S. will be able to squeeze by this slowdown... Unfortunately, I don't agree! I see the U.S. being involved with the multi-car accident on the highway... But as Pfennig readers you already know that... However, instead of just hearing from me all the time about this meltdown of the U.S. economy, let's hear from an organization that tracks these things......
  • Calling Out The Fed...

    * TIC's look funny... * Germany's ZEW is weaker... * A note from the Washington Post! * Tons of data today... **Calling Out The Fed... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... Someone from the Washington Post is a Pfennig Reader (I think!), as there was a great article in the paper calling out the Fed on their "rate hike" rhetoric... I'll give you snippets of that, and a snippet from my friend, the Mogambo Guru, along with the usual currency talk, on this Terrific Tuesday... Ready, set, let's go! Front and Center this morning is the dollar getting sold all day yesterday, as the euro recovered all the way to 1.5515 in the overnight markets. Unfortunately, the single unit was stopped in its rally tracks by an awful printing of German Investor Confidence, as measured by the think tank ZEW... German Investor Confidence dropped to the lowest level in 15 years this month, as rising inflation is eating away at the economy. I don't expect this report to put too much a dent in the single unit's performance today, but for now it has slipped back below 1.55......
  • A War Of Words...

    * Undynamic duo sound off! * The dollar rebounds! * Inflation expectations? * BOC to cut rates today......
  • Jawboning The Dollar Higher...

    * More bias to buy dollars... * Printing money... * Kiwi gets hit hard! * Rate announcements today......
  • On The Soapbox Again...

    * Euro loses 1 1/2-cents... * Currencies get taken to the woodshed... * Bernanke joins Paulson, but why? * A China comment explanation......
  • Retail Sales Disappoint...

    * Euro rally ends quickly... * Bernanke speaks... * Fighting inflation... * Problems in Iceland......