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  • Governor Stevens and the RBA surprises the markets...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar slides as risk returns...
    * RBA surprises the markets...
    * Gold moves higher...
    * Obama offers up record deficits...

    Good day... And a happy Ground Hog day to everyone! Yes, today is the day Phil decides if we are going to have more winter weather or a quick spring. While I can find something to like during all of the seasons, I do find myself hoping we see a quick end to the cold weather as we turn the calendar over to February. Unfortunately, the folks who make a living predicting the weather don't believe we will get an early spring this year, but their record is about as good as Groundhog Phil's, so we will just have to wait to see what Mother Nature brings us. Kristin and I will be joining Chuck down in Orlando tomorrow, so hopefully a few days of warm weather will hold me over until April....
  • Dollar rally peters out...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar rally peters out...
    * Obama defends his policies...
    * Commodity currencies should outperform...
    * Global Power Shift Index...

    Good day... And happy Thursday to everyone! Hope everyone made it through the 'hump day' with no worries. We started the morning here with rainshowers, but it ended up being a beautiful afternoon and evening. Currency markets were similar to the weather here, as most currencies started Wednesday in the loss column vs. the US$, but rallied as the day progressed. The dollar had strengthened over the past couple of days due to 'safe haven' demand; but a surprisingly strong durable goods number (ex autos) combined with an 'all clear' signal from President Barack Obama had investors moving back into riskier assets. The commodity based currencies also got a boost as China signaled it would maintain an accommodative policy, easing speculation that the Bank of China would try to rein in bank lending. Lots to cover today, so lets get right to it....
  • He Said What?

    In This Issue..

    * Foreclosures rise...
    * Green Shoots, no so green!
    * getting on a bus...
    * Losing a triple A rating?

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Not wanting to start the day off with bad news... But I just saw a flash on the TV that said, 'foreclosures jumped 32% last month'... More Blood in the Streets, eh? That just happens to be the title of my presentation today... Blood in the Street: Bargain time or just a cease fire? Hey! I don't make these things up...

    OK... Another day here in Sin City... This city is packed with people, everywhere we go, it's simply amazing... There's been no sign of a recession here... Of course, if you got out of the casinos, and shows, you would see some of the greatest devastation any where in the housing market here... So.. It's not a seashells and balloons in Vegas... I guess with the economy so rotten, people are hoping to strike it rich in the casinos though... Hmmm, have they not figured out that these ginormous buildings are here to make money?...
  • The waiting game...

    In This Issue..

    * Waiting on G20 and the ECB...
    * US home prices plunge...
    * What will come from G20...
    * ECB to cut rates, but no quantitative easing...

    Good day... The markets will play a waiting game today, and I expect the currencies to trade in a pretty flat range. The focus will be on the G20 which starts tomorrow, and the ECB announcement which will also be released tomorrow. So today I will share my views on both of these topics, but first I will report on what occurred yesterday and overnight in the currency markets.

    The dollar climbed yesterday morning as data released showed US home prices plunged at a record pace and consumer confidence continues to bottom. US home prices fell nearly 19% in January according to the S&P Case Shiller index. This was even worse than economists had predicted, and December's numbers were revised down....
  • A Day Of Healing...

    * Currencies have a mini-rally... * Only to see profit taking overnight... * Gold rebounds too! * Retail Sales on board today... ** A Day Of Healing... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It was a Tub Thumpin' Wednesday yesterday for the currencies and Gold, after seeing them back off earlier this week! I'm in Jacksonville for a company event, and then on Friday morning, I head south to start my spring vacation! But first, some work to do here, and then on to the south! It was 29 degrees when I got in the car to leave for the airport yesterday morning... And it was 77 degrees when I finally arrived in Jacksonville! YAHOO! But even as loud as I can say YAHOO for the warm weather, which I've said over and over again, I've got to go where it's warm, it wasn't as loud as a the YAHOO yelped by currency owners as the euro led the currencies higher and higher all day long!...
  • A "Stock Tip From The Top Guy!"

    * Australia's economy contracts.... * Bank of Canada cuts rates to .50% * Meeting margin calls... * TALF... ** A 'Stock Tip From The Top Guy!' Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! My beautiful bride is getting ready to leave this morning. I'm not used to 'talking' to someone when I get up at my usual early hour! She'll be gone in a few, as I write, and then it will be my little buddy, Alex, and your Pfennig writer on their own for 5 days! YAHOO! Well... After a day of waxing eloquently about the how well the Aussie economy was doing compared to the rest of the world, they go and post a contraction in their economic growth! UGH! That's the way to show me up! The Aussie economy shrank in the 4th QTR by .5% VS the forecast of .2% growth... The news scared the markets into believing the Asian problem will be worse off than previously thought. Oh Come On! Australia is STILL doing better than most countries, especially those that I listed in yesterday's Pfennig!...
  • Labor Market Continues To Deteriorate...

    * Merkel leaves us wanting... * Gold soars higher overnight! * Indian rupees' worst week! * Greenspan = Very Bad Idea! ** Labor Market Continues To Deteriorate... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It got cold here again... I can't wait for my March trip to a warmer climate! GM's Swedish unit Saab is filing for protection from creditors, so that it can reorganize into a business independent of GM... Hmmm... Everyone is jumping the GM ship... Well, it's Friday, and that means yesterday we saw the print of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims... And once again, the rot on labor's vine was exposed... The total Claims files last week was 627K, the experts had forecast 600K... But here's the thing that really hits home... The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits has jumped to 4.99 Million, and each week and new record number is established... It certainly tells me that the labor market is still deteriorating......
  • Geithner's Plan Disappoints...

    * Trade Deficit to narrow further... * Currencies rally, then sell off... * Obama's stimulus loses backers... * Riksbank cuts 100 BPS unexpectedly... ** Geithner's Plan Disappoints... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Tim Geithner didn't experience a Terrific Tuesday, as I had wished for him... And now, it looks as though the shine is coming off the new President as more and more individuals are "not buying" his appeal to the nation to get a stimulus package passed... The currencies rallied and then sold off after Geithner gave the details of his "new and improved" plan... We've got some potential market moving data printing today and more! So... Let's go to the tape!...
  • Gold As An Inflation Fighter!

    * BOE to cut rates today... * ECB will wait to cut for now... * Black clouds forming for India? * German factory Orders plunge! ** Gold As An Inflation Fighter! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Day One at the Orlando World Money Show (WMS) went well. My room for the presentation was packed! It was standing room only, and the good part was the fact that there were only about 30 Pfennig readers in the crowd. I say that not because I have something against Pfennig readers, oh Lord, they are dear readers! The reason I say that is I like to know how many of the non-readers I can convert to Pfennig readers!...
  • A "New & Improved Stimulus Package"

    * The dollar fights back! * Another $900 Billion in the red... * RBNZ cuts rates 150 BPS! * Jamie Dimon tells it like it is... ** A New & Improved Stimulus Package Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Well... The Fed kept rates at near zero, as if they had any ability to raise them, the House sent the Stimulus Bill on to the Senate, the dollar rebounded on all these two items, and I have some very strong quotes for you at the end of today's lesson... So, get your coffee, or OJ, or V-8, sit down, and let's go! OK, I had better start with the dollar reaction to the two items yesterday, as what looked like an end to this dollar strength mess, was about to take place as the euro pushed to 1.33, taking the other currencies along for the ride, was just a head fake... The dollar had more strength to show us, after the Fed kept rates unchanged, and the House passed the Stimulus Bill....
  • Gold Ends The Week Strong!

    * The dollar continues to rally... * No risk takers to be found... * Simply awful data yesterday... * Gold continues its rally... ** Gold Ends The Week Strong! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday for me, as it was a Tub Thumpin' Thursday as well! You see, I got the results of my latest scans yesterday afternoon, and my oncologist is thrilled! (as I too am!) This marks 1 year of clean scans, and if it weren't for this rogue metastasis in my left eye, it would be all seashells and balloons! I go on Monday to see if the blood clot that has made things difficult for me for 15 months now, has finally dissolved. If so, there's another biggie off my list! I have to personally thank God, who has chosen to cure me, and it's probably a result of all you wonderful readers that have sent along good wishes and prayers... I also thank my family for their support, and my doctors who have never once not taken the aggressive course to getting me well......
  • Euro Rally Fizzles Out...

    * Yen continues to kick! * Jim Rogers disses sterling... * China's 4th QTR GDP... * Singapore announces stimulus... ** Euro Rally Fizzles Out... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! A nasty day in the currencies yesterday, except Japan of course. The Dow jumped 290 points yesterday, maybe an Obama bounce? You all know that I subscribe to an Obama bounce for stocks and the dollar in the first part of this year... But given what I know about, and what you now know about, after I drew it all out yesterday, the additions to the deficit that Obama will make, the focus on the fundamentals should return by late spring, early summer... That's my story and I'm stickin' to it! Well... As I said in the opening, the currencies led by the Big Dog, euro, suffered through a nasty trading day, with the euro touching below 1.29 for a good part of the day. The risk takers are nowhere to be found. Where have all the risk takers gone... Long time passing... A Reuters reporter asked me yesterday if I was still of the opinion that the yen had more to rally or was it overbought? I said, that as long as the risk takers are nowhere to be found, yen should continue on its path higher VS the dollar, euro and sterling. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for yen, shows that it is a tad overbought, but that's not enough to change my mind. Nor is it enough to change the mind of a currency trader at the Bank of New York (BONY), who believes yen may rise to 85 VS the dollar by midyear... Another currency trader at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) believes the Bank of Japan will step in and intervene to stem the yen's rise.......
  • Gold Moves Higher With The Dollar...

    * Currencies in a tight trading range... * Bank of Canada follows the Fed... * Look who's Talking Gold... * Adding up the spending... ** Gold Moves Higher With The Dollar... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The first full day of the new regime... I will say this, it makes one proud to be an American when you can watch a peaceful, even extravaganza, handing over of leadership... It really rips me up when I read that the Wall Street Boys really contributed cash to the inauguration proceedings... Making certain the new President knows who contributed cash to his party... Probably cash they received from the Gov't in bailout payments! Nah... That couldn't happen... Could it? Well... The currencies didn't really trade outside of a very tight range yesterday, except for the pound sterling, which continues to fall VS the dollar, euro, yen, and probably even the Zimbabwe currency! OK, that's harsh! But I wanted to paint the picture, so that everyone understood the grave situation the pound sterling is in... The Bank of England has decided to take 70% control of the Royal Bank of Scotland, and nationalization isn't far behind for that bank, and a few others......
  • Inauguration Day 2009...

    * Rogers and Roach... * Dollar gaps higher! * Ireland's problems... * Bad data... ** Inauguration Day 2009... Good day... Well... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I got to enjoy a nice restful 3-day weekend. I realize not everyone got yesterday off, so I won't carry on about it. Can you believe it? The St. Louis Cardinals Football Team A.K.A. The Big Red, no wait, Chuck, they left town 20 years ago... OK, the Arizona Cardinals are going to the Super Bowl? When they were here, I never thought I would live to see the day... Front and Center this morning, I have two quotes from people I truly respect... first from Jimmy Rogers... second from Stephen Roach... If I were you, I would be worried about the U.S. dollar,' said Rogers, 66, in a speech at the Asia Financial Forum in Hong Kong today. 'The Americans are printing U.S. dollars. The Americans are going to do whatever they can to revive their economy, even if it means destroying the U.S. dollar.'...
  • The Dollar Swings A Mighty Big Hammer!

    * Another dollar rally.... * Rumors in Ireland... * Trade Deficit narrows... * Retail Sales to disappoint? ** The Dollar Swings A Mighty Hammer! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm writing from home today, as I will not be in the office on this wonderful Wednesday. Writing from home, or the road, always presents problems for me, as I'm so used to being in the "saddle" at my desk, and having information all around me. But, my little work desk at home has some of those amenities... So, what the heck, quit your grumpiness, and get to writing, Chuck! The dollar ripped through the 1.32 handle of the euro yesterday, like a hot knife goes through butter! There was little to no resistance in that 1.32 handle, and before you could tell one of the many people on the desk here that sneeze all day, God Bless you, we were trading with a 1.31 handle in euros. The talk about a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut has really ramped up this week, and taken its toll on the single unit. No one is mentioning that even if the ECB cuts 75 BPS this week, they'll still have a an interest rate / yield advantage over the U.S! I guess they'll sort that all out somewhere down the line, eh?...