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  • Brazil Throws The Cat Among The Pigeons!

    In This Issue..

    * Real leads Commodity Currencies to the woodshed!
    * Niall Ferguson speaks his mind...
    * BOC leaves rates and statement unchanged...
    * Bollard gives the green light!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! How many people out there know about "network neutrality"? Well, if you don't know, you're about to find out tomorrow, when it will be decided upon... I'm not going to get into it, because after you find out what it is you'll know why I didn't explain... All I'll say is that this is just another thing that's flying below the radar that's about to be thrown in our laps...

    OK... Well... Yesterday, after signing off and hitting the 'send button' for the Pfennig, I saw a story that shot across the desk, and then a follow up was sent to me by Don Ries later in the morning. The story was about the Brazilian Gov't imposing a 2% tax on capital inflows... This was done in an attempt to slow down the Brazilian economy by slowing down the "hot money" that's going into the Brazilian stock market by foreigners... Talk about throwing a cat among the pigeons!...
  • A Loss Of Confidence In the U.S.?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * Euros and Aussie dollars lead the pack...
    * $1.42 Trillion Deficit for 2009!
    * TIC's data gets ignored again!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Another 'lost' weekend for our college and professional football teams! UGH! The sun finally came out this weekend. YAHOO! It felt so good to be in the sun again... The TICs data was something that needed to be dealt with on Friday, but once again the markets ignored it... I'm telling you, this smells like, walks like, and talks like a gag order... OK... Let's get going this Marvelous Monday!

    The non-dollar currencies all drifted on Friday, with the dollar seeing a bit of buying... But that's all been thrown to the curb this morning, as the non-dollar currencies, for the most part, are in rally mode VS the dollar.

    ...
  • Cautiously Positive?

    In This Issue..

    * Euro & yen add to gains...
    * RBNZ disappoints...
    * Foreclosures continue to stack up!
    * BOE & BOC meet today...

    Good day... And a Thrillin' Thursday to you! Ahhh! A change! Just thought that with the thrilling victories my beloved Cardinals have been accumulating, that Thrillin' would be a nice change to our Thursday lineup!

    Front and Center this morning... The currencies added to their gains this week yesterday, albeit small gains, but gains nonetheless. The Fed's Beige Book was 'cautiously positive'... And... Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand met, and left rates unchanged as suspected... This and more as we begin our Thrillin' Thursday!...
  • Home sales improve...

    In This Issue..

    * Home sales improve...
    * Are we there yet...
    * Intervention talks...
    * Buying on dips...

    Good day...and a Fabulous Friday to you. As I was sitting here this morning collecting my thoughts, it just hit me like a ton of bricks that we're already towards the end of July and next weekend brings us into August...where's the pause button when you need it. Anyway, yesterday started out like any other quiet morning so far this week but we did see a nice little run in the currencies only to see profit taking as we moved into the late afternoon. As I turned the computer screens on this morning, I see where the overnight markets brought us right back up to the levels we began with this time yesterday. The big story that moved the markets was the better than expected housing numbers that, again, gave investors that warm and fuzzy feeling that I touched on yesterday. Since I already let the cat out of the bag, I'll jump right in...

    ...
  • Desperately Seeking Yield...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally...
    * More on the BRIC's...
    * New Zealand's GDP contracts..
    * Bernanke gets grilled!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The end of what seemed to be a very long week... The last weekend in June, can you believe that? Next week, we'll be getting ready for the 4th of July celebrations! WOW!

    Well... What a volatile week it has been in the currencies! Up, down, all around, and settling back to levels that we saw before the Fed's FOMC meeting earlier this week. Suddenly, investors are looking for yield again... Looks like they are "Desperately Seeking (not Susan) Yield! And why not? The Fed, and the Bank of Canada (BOC) have come out and said that there will be no interest rate hikes until we've turned quite a few pages on the 2010 calendar....
  • Currencies Bounce Back!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets soar!
    * German Investor Confidence surprises!
    * High yielders kicking tail...
    * Who's afraid of the SNB?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Finally! Spring has arrived and for more than one day at a time here in St. Louis! YAHOO! A very cold and wet spring for us, brought us to the middle of May before normal spring weather was upon us... Good things come to those who are patient, right?

    OK... Speaking of patience... I think that's what we'll all have to possess a lot of going forward with these currencies and stocks... Here's what I'm talking about... Yesterday morning it looked as though the recent rally in stocks was over, complete, pack up the bags, get on the bus, Gus... And with the trading theme of throwing all risk assets in the same bag and trading them alike that's been in place since last July, this would seem to be a nail in the coffin of the currency rally we've seen going on since March 1st.......
  • The Rot On The Vine Goes Deeper...

    In This Issue..

    * The 31st bank is closed in 2009
    * China is showing signs of improvement...
    * The so-called 'decoupling' taking place?
    * Jobs Jamboree ends the week...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I'm Back! Once again, the traveling troubadour returns to the saddle... I'm here for two weeks, then gone again for the Las Vegas Money Show, then I get a nice reprieve in June before heading to Vancouver in July. There's a day game at Busch this Thursday, and I've already been invited to go, so I'm already getting in the frame of mind for that!

    OK... Chris did a great job bringing you the Pfennig each day last week... I was still writing each day, giving daily updates to the FXU people. Chris will be traveling with me to "lost wages" , I mean, Las Vegas, so I'll be writing from the road, which long time readers know I just absolutely love!... NOT!...
  • Currencies Continue to Rally...

    In This Issue..

    * An auction announcement...
    * Euro soars!
    * Gold back to $900...
    * Who's telling the truth?

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to you! A Fantastico Friday to boot! I leave for Bermuda very early tomorrow morning, so no late night shenanigans for me tonight! HA! I'm still trying to make sure I've beaten that pneumonia, and being a "good boy"!

    Well... Front and center this morning, we have a Big currency rally going on... Recall yesterday, I told you of the beginning of the rally... Well, it really got legs as the day went on, and once again, it was not sold off overnight, but added to! Here's what I believe, and you won't see this anywhere else, my friends, is moving these currencies so violently higher VS the dollar......
  • Currencies Rally Yesterday...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro climbs back to 1.30...
    * High Yielders bounce back...
    * Gold to hit $1,500?
    * Kurt Richebacher...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes, it's a Tub Thumpin' Thursday because it's finally supposed to be warm here today, and... The Card and Mets in a day game at Busch today... Wink, wink... It's also a Tub Thumpin' Thursday because... I said so! HA-HA!

    Well... We had a rally in the currencies yesterday and this time the rally wasn't reversed overnight by profit taking! WOW! It's been some time since we could say that! Maybe it was the good karma the overnight markets received by my little buddy Alex's base hit last night to drive in 2 runs! Or, the good karma from a Cardinals pitcher going into the 9th inning of a game! WOW! Or... Maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, fundamentals are creeping back into the currency markets?...
  • A Leak Of The Stress Tests?

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * U.K. Budget announcement...
    * When will Treasuries follow Gilts?
    * Gold as a currency...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another bad night for your Blues, which means their season has come to an abrupt halt... They are a young team, so they'll be back, next year...

    OK... The euro traded in a very tight range yesterday with a bias to sell dollars, but like I said, it was very tight... The Aussie dollar rallied very strongly during the day, adding over 1-cent to its figure. It sold back some of that 1-cent gain overnight though. As the upbeat stock session, immediately turned sour after the close... As I said yesterday, there was a lack of data to help the currencies along, and they had to rely on the earnings season for direction....
  • Riksbank Holds Off On QE...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * German Investor Confidence rises!
    * Thoughts from Jim Rogers...
    * Kohn on the economy...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm staring at all this white space on the Pfennig template, and I absolutely drew a blank... I couldn't think of, or can't think of a thing to say! Whoa there partner! That can't happen! There's got to be something, anything, to talk about... OK! I'm back now, I really have no idea where that was going, it was an out of body experience! HAHAHAHA!

    OK... The currencies traded in a very tight range yesterday, after the dollar had ambushed them on Friday and in the Sunday night trading sessions. It's been a week since we saw currency strength, other than Japanese yen. So, we should be due for a bounce. There continues to be more whispering about the eventual dollar weakness, but for now, it's not enough to get us back to where the dollar should be trading on a fundamentals basis....
  • Dollar Shows Additional Strength...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro at one-month low... * Trichet talks rate cuts... * Riksbank & Bank of Canada this week... * The Mogambo on a Monday!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Today is a special day, in that it is the Big Boss Frank Trotter's birthday! Happy Birthday Boss! Actually Frank is more of a very good, long time friend, mentor, and then boss. We've worked together for a very long time... I tell people at shows that Frank and I do together, that we've been working together for so long... The Dead Sea wasn't even sick when we began working together! HAHAHAHAHAHA!

    OK... A bad day a the office for the euro and other currencies on Friday, and then last night in the overnight markets... European Central Bank (ECB) President, Trichet, once again deep-sixed the euro with talk of further rate cuts. He did attempt to water down the message by saying that "any rate cuts would be measured 25 BPS cuts" Memo to Trichet... It doesn't matter what the size of the debasing is, as long as you are going to debase your currency, the markets will make you pay for it!...
  • A "Stock Tip From The Top Guy!"

    * Australia's economy contracts.... * Bank of Canada cuts rates to .50% * Meeting margin calls... * TALF... ** A 'Stock Tip From The Top Guy!' Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! My beautiful bride is getting ready to leave this morning. I'm not used to 'talking' to someone when I get up at my usual early hour! She'll be gone in a few, as I write, and then it will be my little buddy, Alex, and your Pfennig writer on their own for 5 days! YAHOO! Well... After a day of waxing eloquently about the how well the Aussie economy was doing compared to the rest of the world, they go and post a contraction in their economic growth! UGH! That's the way to show me up! The Aussie economy shrank in the 4th QTR by .5% VS the forecast of .2% growth... The news scared the markets into believing the Asian problem will be worse off than previously thought. Oh Come On! Australia is STILL doing better than most countries, especially those that I listed in yesterday's Pfennig!...
  • RBA Surprises The Markets!

    * Everything but Treasuries trades heavily... * Fundamentally speaking on Australia... * Bank of Canada to cut rates today... * Tell me your story... ** RBA Surprises The Markets! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... The BIG NEWS this morning comes to us from down under, where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the markets and left rates unchanged for the first time in 7 months... Now, that's the horse of a different color! How dare they? How could they? Why everybody is doing it, Where do they get off thinking they didn't have to? Ahhh, grasshopper... The RBA continues to shine in my eyes as the best run Central Bank in the world, and this is one of the reasons why... Yes, they could have gone with the rest of the crowd, and cut rates to the bone, but why stoke inflation? Now, having said all that... It doesn't mean the RBA won't cut rates again in the future... It just means that they were being prudent, and taking a step back to see what their previous rate cuts had done to the economy, and how the economy would be affected by them. So, the proverbial "pause for the cause"... But, I believe it to be warranted, given the RBA had cut 400 BPS away from their once lofty rate in 7 rate cuts......
  • Gold Moves Higher With The Dollar...

    * Currencies in a tight trading range... * Bank of Canada follows the Fed... * Look who's Talking Gold... * Adding up the spending... ** Gold Moves Higher With The Dollar... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The first full day of the new regime... I will say this, it makes one proud to be an American when you can watch a peaceful, even extravaganza, handing over of leadership... It really rips me up when I read that the Wall Street Boys really contributed cash to the inauguration proceedings... Making certain the new President knows who contributed cash to his party... Probably cash they received from the Gov't in bailout payments! Nah... That couldn't happen... Could it? Well... The currencies didn't really trade outside of a very tight range yesterday, except for the pound sterling, which continues to fall VS the dollar, euro, yen, and probably even the Zimbabwe currency! OK, that's harsh! But I wanted to paint the picture, so that everyone understood the grave situation the pound sterling is in... The Bank of England has decided to take 70% control of the Royal Bank of Scotland, and nationalization isn't far behind for that bank, and a few others......