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  • Dollar drifts lower....

    In This Issue...

    * Dollar drifts lower...
    * Looking for silver linings...
    * NOK to increase rates...
    * Aussie dollar continues to move up...

    Good day... And good morning to everyone. I wanted to start out this morning's Pfennig by saying my thoughts and prayers go out to all of the families of the fallen soldiers and civilian at the tragedy down at Ft. Hood. It is tough enough when we here about losses of our soldiers overseas in the 'combat zones'; but such a large loss of life right here in the US is deeply saddening.

    The dollar moved lower throughout the trading day on Thursday as investors felt more confident with the global recovery and the US stock market climbed back above 10,000. Yesterday's weekly jobs numbers were slightly better than expected, and set the market up for this mornings monthly jobs report which will probably show fewer job losses in October compared to September. But there will still be job losses, not gains; and the 'official' unemployment number will inch closer to double digits. We all know if you count those individuals who are underemployed (part time workers who would like full time jobs) and those that have given up on their job search, the actual unemployment number is more like 16%....

  • Rates To Remain Near Zero...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar reverses sell-off...
    * BOE & ECB meet today...
    * New Zealand is not Australia...
    * Funny accounting...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because it's a Thursday and it's not raining! Yay for us! Well... Not only was I wrong, but the Bloomberg Economic Calendar was wrong too... The FOMC was not a 2-day meeting after all! Just one day, so no time to pull out the board games and cards...

    I nailed that FOMC statement yesterday... WOW! You might begin to think that I have some inside info on the Fed Heads, the way I've been able to basically call every move they've made since the beginning of this whole meltdown in August of 2007! But that's not important here... The important thing is that the Fed said that economic growth is not enough to hike rates, and therefore they will keep interest rates at near zero for an 'extended period'...

    ...

  • Another New Record Level For Gold!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk players come back out to play...
    * Waiting on the Fed's statement...
    * Yield differentials come into focus...
    * Lisbon Treaty gets signed / ratified...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Did you see the strong performance that Gold put in yesterday? And it didn't stop yesterday, overnight Gold is up another $7 on top of the +$20 gain it had yesterday... I've got some info on that, we can talk about later...

    Oh Shoot Rudy! Let's talk about it right here, right now! It's not every day that Gold not only goes past its previous all-time record high, but obliterates the previous figure! I know you're wanting to take a peek at the price of Gold in the currency round-up portion of the Big Finish, so go ahead, and then come on back... How'd that $1,090 and change price look to you? Pretty sweet, eh? That is as long as you are a Gold holder!...

  • Consumer Spending Drives GDP?

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar rebounds after spending fades...
    * Chinese Manufacturing rises...
    * Eurozone Manufacturing rises...
    * Australia as the proxy for global growth...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And Welcome to November! My least liked month! But that's a story for another time! I hope your Halloween was fun! The rain stopped here, there was a near full moon shining in the sky, and the little kids had a blast! And Hey! The Rams won a football game! WOW!

    OK... Well... Friday was a blur to me, as I went to the doctor's office for a test, and then on my way to work, they called my cell and asked me to turn around and go to a lab for more tests... UGH! So, by the time I got to work, Jennifer had set everything up and begun trading for me... Then it was time to go home! So, I'm sitting here this morning, scratching my bald head trying to recall the currency prices on Friday... And Oh yeah! Now I remember! Do you recall the Thursday action after the GDP report showed such strength (whether you believe it or not) and the dollar got sold like pet rocks?...

  • Jobless recovery?? Not going to happen....

    In This Issue..

    * Leading indicators up, but employment down...
    * 11 million new jobs in China...
    * Pound sterling gets pounded...
    * A Great Day for EverBank...

    Good day...and happy Friday! It has been a fairly busy week here at EverBank, with the issuance of another big BRIC MarketSafe CD, the maturity of another MarketSafe, and a big acquisition (more on that later). While things were a bit crazy at EverBank, the currency markets were fairly uneventful. The dollar started the day off with a move up after a positive report on US leading indicators, but it gave back most of the gains as the trading day wore on. At the end of the day, only one currency moved more than 1% vs. the greenback, with the pound sterling dropping almost 1.5%.

    ...

  • Will History Repeat Itself?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * A$'s and C$'s to parity?
    * Reaching 40% of expenditures...
    * Gold & Oil on the rise once again...


    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long day on the desk for me yesterday, left me draggin' the line... But I'm rested and refreshed again this morning, so let's get to the Pfennig for today! The Finance Ministers of the Eurozone met yesterday, as I told you, and they've tried to stem the euro's rise... But, they'll need more than words to get the job done! And so, we begin a new day...

    Front and Center this morning, the currencies, which had given back ground overnight to the dollar, are back in rally mode, and are taking liberties with the dollar once more. For most of the night that was not the case, though. The dollar had rallied back and sent the euro, for instance, to the 1.48 handle, after the single unit spent yesterday at 1.49 and change... There seemed to be a move to the dollar, but that didn't last long, and the currencies are once again rallying VS the dollar this morning, and the euro has pushed to 1.4970 as I write......

  • A Loss Of Confidence In the U.S.?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * Euros and Aussie dollars lead the pack...
    * $1.42 Trillion Deficit for 2009!
    * TIC's data gets ignored again!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Another 'lost' weekend for our college and professional football teams! UGH! The sun finally came out this weekend. YAHOO! It felt so good to be in the sun again... The TICs data was something that needed to be dealt with on Friday, but once again the markets ignored it... I'm telling you, this smells like, walks like, and talks like a gag order... OK... Let's get going this Marvelous Monday!

    The non-dollar currencies all drifted on Friday, with the dollar seeing a bit of buying... But that's all been thrown to the curb this morning, as the non-dollar currencies, for the most part, are in rally mode VS the dollar.

    ...

  • Central Banks Diversify Out Of The Dollar!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally VS the dollar...
    * Reasons why the U.S. wants a cheaper dollar...
    * Interest rate differentials...
    * Trade Deficit narrows...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! An absolutely awful weekend for our professional sports teams, as the Cardinals, Blues, and Rams all lost! The Cardinals were swept out of the playoffs! UGH! Talk about a downer for yours truly... I sat there, at the game, with my little buddy, and beautiful bride, and saw the writing on the wall early in the game... No life from those redbirds... And so, another baseball season comes to an end here in St. Louis...

    Friday morning, after drying out from Thursday nights drenching, no wait, super soaking at Faurot Field in Columbia, I sat down to breakfast, and read the Pfennig... I noticed that Chris was on a roll about Geithner... I thought that it was a good finish to the things I said about him the previous day! Chris will have the conn on the Pfennig Tuesday through Friday this week......

  • G-7 To Discuss Currencies?

    In This Issue..

    * The ball is in the dollar's court today...
    * Aussie is unable to hold 14-month high...
    * China and Eurozone print stronger PMI's
    * Chock-full-o-data today...

    Good day... Welcome to October! And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! No real reason to get Tub Thumpin', but I thought why not? The non-dollar currencies have given back their gains made yesterday to the dollar, in a game of what seems to be, give and take... A tennis match with the dollar, one day the ball is in the dollar's court, and the next day it's not! Really, kind of giving me a rash, watching this... I want some direction here!

    So... When I turned on all my screens this morning, and then waited about 20 minutes for the new programs to be installed on them that the IT people left for the next time the computer started up... Hmmm, where was I? Oh! I was talking about when I first saw the currencies this morning... I saw that the euro had fallen back to 1.4560... And of course wanted to find out why...

    ...

  • Whiplash Wednesday!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound VS the dollar...
    * Aussie and kiwi lead the currencies higher...
    * Data and Central Bank speeches today...
    * Gold rebounds back to $1,000!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you... Instead of a 'turn around Tuesday', we're seeing a whiplash Wednesday! And for once in a month of Sundays, the Big Dog, euro didn't lead the other little dogs (currencies) off the porch to chase the dollar down the street!

    No... This time it was the currencies of Australia and New Zealand that led the charge VS the dollar... The euro has taken up the charge since opening the doors to a new day of trading in Europe, so... It looks like it's a 'take the dollar to the woodshed day'......

  • Retail Sales Soar!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on Retail Sales!
    * China likes investments in Canada...
    * Big Ben the 'inflation fighter'...
    * Gold climbs to $1,018!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Good news for me this morning, the pain in my left knee has subsided... Now, If I could just get that swelling to go down, I'd be in tall cotton! This has been quite the ordeal on the old Pfennig writer, and one that I will be glad to put in the rear view mirror!

    Well... When I turned on the currency screens this morning, the euro was trading with a 1.47 handle! WOW! It just skipped to my Lou right through the 1.46 handle, eh? It began yesterday afternoon, the dollar was getting sold on the news of a strong Retail Sales figure, more on that in a minute, and the euro was edging up the 1.46 ladder... The move to get it past 1.47 came in the overnight markets... Now, having gotten you all lathered up about 1.47, I have to say that since I turned on the currency screens, the euro has lost ground back to 1.4688, but still... That's quite an impressive move from yesterday morning, eh?

    ...

  • U.S. Manufacturing On The Rise...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets Get Sold!
    * ISM hits 52.9!
    * Aussie GDP rises!
    * China leading the way!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, all that back and forth between rally and sell off for the currencies came to an abrupt halt yesterday, when the dollar bulls went on a rampage. There was some very strong economic data to help the move, but the real thing that brought the currencies to their knees was the stock sell off of 185 points...

    Get this... Now we all know that the risk assets of stocks, commodities, and currencies have all been tied together for some time now... So, I was surprised to see a story titled: 'Currency Markets Taken For A Ride By Stocks' Hmmm, maybe this person just woke up from a 9-month coma, eh? Any way, that doesn't matter, it's just another opinion that coincides with mine!...

  • A Currency Rally Takes Shape...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally overnight...
    * A$'s rally for 7th consecutive month!
    * Will the ECB be vindicated?
    * Sweden tries negative deposit rates...

    Good day... And a happy Friday to one and all! So, yesterday didn't turn out the way I thought it would go, but that's OK... I think my body is trying to tell me something, as I overslept again this morning! I'm heading out the door this morning to go 'fishing'... Should be a ton of fun, with neighbor friends this weekend...

    Well, front and center this morning, we are smack dab in the middle of a currency rally VS the dollar. It has all the makings of such, as the Japanese yen is getting sold, along with the green/peachback. The improved economic data this week, finally caught up with the dollar, as risk assets are back on the table....

  • A Big Jobs Surprise!

    In This Issue..

    * Low yielding currencies get sold...
    * High yielding currencies remain solid...
    * Further info on the inflation indexed bonds...
    * Stealth QE...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A very nice, but hot weekend here... But hey! It's August, it's supposed to be hot! Friday was an awful day for most of the currencies, and there was a HUGE surprise in the Jobs Jamboree (according to the BLS, of course!)... And, at the end of updates, I've got a story for you about stealth QE, you'll not want to miss a minute of that! So... Let's go!

    Well, Friday's Jobs Jamboree was quite interesting to say the least... I had already told you about the forecasts for a HUGE drop in job losses for July from 467,000 to 325,000... But the number, according to the BLS, was 247,000!!!!!!! Way to Go Corporate America! Geez Louise, I wish it were that full of seashells and balloons! This smells of yesterday's fish folks... OK, let me get this straight... The forecast was for 325,000 job losses, and an unemployment rate of 9.6% (up from 9.5% in June)... And the jobs lost were 247,000, a difference of 78,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 9.4%... So, the BLS is telling me, and you, that 78,000 jobs not being lost, was equal to .2% (9.6 to 9.4)? Come on! I didn't just fall off the turnip truck!...

  • Heeeeeeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk...

    In This Issue..

    * A strong currency move on Friday...
    * Data Cupboard gets a work out this week...
    * U.K. and ECB meet this week...
    * RBA to move to neutral tonight?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Heeeeeeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk... Oh no! Just when you thought it was safe to open the Daily Pfennig and not get lectured on deficit spending... He's back! Oh well, It's been over two weeks, first to Vancouver, then on vacation. We've got a lot of catching up to do, eh? Mike and Chris did a Fantastico job of taking the conn on the Pfennig in my absence... So thanks to them... But it's back to me, and besides a couple of days in San Francisco later this month, I'm all yours! (I bet that just makes you smile like a Cheshire Cat... NOT!)

    OK... Rather than beat around the bush this morning, Chris left me this note from Friday's price action, so let's go to the Friday round up and then onto today! Here's Chris!...
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