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Have You Seen This?

  • Questioning China... Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion takes over...
    * Gold fails to reach all-time high...
    * Debasing is good?
    * Treasury yields plummet!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it looks like the hurricane in the Gulf will veer left, and avoid the 'spill area'... So, those guys working in the Gulf finally catch a break! The bias to sell dollars didn't last too long yesterday, about as long as it takes for an Albert Pujols home run to leave the park! This back and forth stuff is really beginning to give me a rash, folks...

    Yesterday, the selling of the currencies and metals began with Gold... The shiny metal had climbed to just above $1,260, but could not go further, and apparently, traders threw in the towel because Gold couldn't go past its all-time high of $1,266... Gold began to sell off and in the blink of an eye, it went from being up $8, to being down $14! OUCH!...
  • Risk On, Risk Off...

    In This Issue..

    * Bundesbank hurts euro...
    * A$ is best performer overnight...
    * Is Gold a euro replacement?
    * 10-year Treasury yields soar higher...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because I got the go-ahead for the next step to replace my eye with a prosthesis that looks like an eye... Just looked up to see Robin Meade back from vacation, so it's a double Tub Thumpin' Thursday now!

    OK... Recall yesterday's talk about the trading pattern that had existed for 4 consecutive days? Well, that was throw to the roadside yesterday, as the U.S. session went back to beating on the euro, and other currencies......
  • The Bias To Buy Dollars Remains In Place...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar continues to get bought...
    * The A$ gets rocked!
    * Riksbank keeps rates unchanged...
    * 10-year yields inch higher once again...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The end of the line, so-to-speak for me until after Christmas, as I begin my winter vacation tomorrow. Yesterday, I told you about having a conversation with one of my fave economists on Monday night. Well, she told me that she was worried about me. That when she reads the Pfennig, I sound like I'm too stressed out, and taking this stuff to personally. She said she was afraid I was going to have a heart attack writing the Pfennig one day!

    WOW! OK... So here's the deal today, my last Pfennig before Christmas... I'm not going to talk about the deficit spending fools in Washington D.C., I'm not going to talk about the national debt, I'm not going to talk about anything that gets my feathers ruffled... It's all seashells and balloons for yours truly today!...
  • German Business Confidence Slides...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * $81 Billion in Treasury auctions this week!
    * Fitch fans the flames of a fire in the U.K....
    * Aussie Business Confidence rises...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I didn't start out this Tuesday on the right foot, and now I'm really running late! Oh well...

    The non-dollar currencies didn't move much yesterday, the euro bumped up and down against the 1.50 figure, while the A$ did the same against 93-cents, and Swiss against parity... So the currencies are trading in the same clothes they went to bed in last night!

    The Big Dog, euro, did attempt to move stronger into the 1.50 level, but that move was thwarted by a poor reading of German Investor Confidence this morning. German Investor Confidence as measured by the think tank ZEW, reported that their index had fallen to 51.1 this month VS the 56 in October. Most of those Germans surveyed said that they expect the economic recovery to be slow once the Gov't removes the stimulus in the economy. So... Previous euphoria is being replaced by realism... But that's OK... Better to have a reality grip on things than to go around thinking that everything is seashells and balloons......
  • Risk Returns... Slowly...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound...
    * G-8 has no fireworks...
    * Aussie / China and coal...
    * Entitlements...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I'm late, I'm late! I don't believe I ever heard the alarm go off this morning! I overslept by more than an hour, and will still be here more than an hour before any sign of someone else! But! That puts me behind by more than an hour today... I've got to play catch-up! So, let's get this Tub Thumpin' Thursday going!

    Well... Let's see... G-8 never had the opportunity to shoot fireworks because China's leader had to return home to deal with the street riots going on in his country. So... The call for a replacement for the dollar as the reserve currency will have to wait for another day! And, with that news, the dollar got to remain in the sunlight, and bask in the glory of being the reserve currency and so-called 'safe haven' another day......
  • Stuck In A Range...

    In This Issue..

    * A Turn Around Tuesday?
    * BRIC meeting doesn't get covered by the media?
    * Are the Bearer Bonds real or fakes?
    * QTC's get Gov. backing!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Remember last week, when I said that we had a 'Turn Around Tuesday?' I came in this morning to find a story that Chris Gaffney had printed off the Bloomie for me... The writer refers to the price action yesterday as 'Turn Around Tuesday!' OK... I for one, don't even begin to believe that I was the originator of a saying like that for the currencies... I just find it interesting, that a week after I make a big deal out Turn Around Tuesday that it is used in a story with much wider distribution than my little old Pfennig!...
  • ECB rate decision looms...

    In This Issue..

    * ECB rate decision looms...
    * China pushes for a bigger seat at G20...
    * Declining global reserves hurt US Treasuries...
    * Commodity currencies come back...

    Good day... The dollar held on to its gains through out most of the day yesterday, as investors continued to look for a parking place in the volatile markets. But late in the day, the sentiment changed and the dollar started getting sold vs. most of the currencies. This dollar weakness continued overnight with the Euro gaining back 1 cent to trade back above 1.33 and the commodity based currencies of Norway, New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa all gaining over 1 percent vs. the greenback.

    What caused this sharp turn around? I had to look hard to find anything which set this reversal in motion, and could only find references to the upcoming ECB rate decision due on Thursday. The euro had come under selling pressure the past few days as currency traders bet the ECB would be cutting rates by 50 basis points on Thursday. This cut would, of course, narrow the yield advantage the Euro holds over the US$ and therefore make it less attractive to investors. There were also many who believed the ECB should follow the path of the US, UK, and Japan and begin using quantitative easing to further force down rates....
  • RBA Surprises The Markets!

    * Everything but Treasuries trades heavily... * Fundamentally speaking on Australia... * Bank of Canada to cut rates today... * Tell me your story... ** RBA Surprises The Markets! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... The BIG NEWS this morning comes to us from down under, where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the markets and left rates unchanged for the first time in 7 months... Now, that's the horse of a different color! How dare they? How could they? Why everybody is doing it, Where do they get off thinking they didn't have to? Ahhh, grasshopper... The RBA continues to shine in my eyes as the best run Central Bank in the world, and this is one of the reasons why... Yes, they could have gone with the rest of the crowd, and cut rates to the bone, but why stoke inflation? Now, having said all that... It doesn't mean the RBA won't cut rates again in the future... It just means that they were being prudent, and taking a step back to see what their previous rate cuts had done to the economy, and how the economy would be affected by them. So, the proverbial "pause for the cause"... But, I believe it to be warranted, given the RBA had cut 400 BPS away from their once lofty rate in 7 rate cuts......