Browse by Tags

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • Questioning China... Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion takes over...
    * Gold fails to reach all-time high...
    * Debasing is good?
    * Treasury yields plummet!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it looks like the hurricane in the Gulf will veer left, and avoid the 'spill area'... So, those guys working in the Gulf finally catch a break! The bias to sell dollars didn't last too long yesterday, about as long as it takes for an Albert Pujols home run to leave the park! This back and forth stuff is really beginning to give me a rash, folks...

    Yesterday, the selling of the currencies and metals began with Gold... The shiny metal had climbed to just above $1,260, but could not go further, and apparently, traders threw in the towel because Gold couldn't go past its all-time high of $1,266... Gold began to sell off and in the blink of an eye, it went from being up $8, to being down $14! OUCH!...
  • Bank of Canada Is First in G-7 To Hike Rates!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro's rally fizzles out...
    * Rates hikes are not over in Australia!
    * Japanese PM quits!
    * Brits offer advice to Greece.

    OK... Yesterday, I told you that the Bank of Canada (BOC) would meet today, and raise rates... Well, I got that 1/2 right! UGH! The BOC did raise rates, but they did it yesterday! Yes, the BOC became the first Central Bank in G-7 to raise rates, 1 1/2 years after the financial meltdown. The BOC tried to play down the move, by saying that they were not entering a rate hike cycle that would yield rate hikes meeting after meeting... But, with GDP, as reported here yesterday, running at 6.1% annualized, there are more rate hikes to come... It just won't be meeting after meeting... The BOC will sprinkle the fairy dust here, and a little there, some for themselves, and a little for us... A little more for them... HA!...
  • The Hits Just Keep Coming...

    In This Issue..

    * Merkel sends the euro lower...
    * Gold Sells off again!
    * Bond Vigilantes...
    * Aussie Confidence falls 7%...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The rain stopped, the sun came out, I got to sit outside and listen to the ballgame on the radio, all was right in Chuck's world again yesterday... The rain is supposed to come back tonight though... UGH! My little river town is watching the river rise to the top of the banks now...

    The hit songs just keep coming for the euro... As often as the Beatles put them out from 1963 to 1970, or Elton John put them out in the 70's...

    Well... It's the same for the euro... Just when it looked as though the euro might survive a day without being taken to the woodshed... The Eurozone officials just couldn't stand the prosperity! ( and I use that word loosely!) German Chancellor Angela Merkel made some proposals to gain control over 'destructive' financial markets... Her first move was to place a ban on naked short-selling......
  • 110 Billion euros For Greece...

    In This Issue..

    * Aid Package for Greece is approved...
    * Aussie Gov't proposes a 40% mining profit tax!
    * ANZ Commodity Price Index rises 14th consecutive month!
    * Jobs reports this week...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well... I'm back in the saddle today... It's been a long time, now, I'm coming back home. I've been away now, oh how, I'm coming home! Yes... I'm actually here, at my desk, and I'm not squinting, I'm not closing my eyes, and I'm not in pain! YAHOO! I've decided to go 'patchless' for now at least... More later on what's going on with the removed eye...

    Front and center this morning... Greece accepted the bail out terms from the Eurozone yesterday, and Germany says that Greece should have their funds by Friday... After months of hemming and hawing about whether Greece should receive funds, or whether or not Germany would actually release funds to Greece, it looks as though it's all coming to an end.... For now!...
  • FOMC Day – 04/28/2010...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro goes into a tailspin...
    * Portugal gets downgraded...
    * Germans talk with IMF today
    * Aussie CPI indicates rate hike...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you... Today marks 1-week since I've been back writing the Pfennig... I simply love writing the Pfennig each day, and boy did I miss it when I was unable to write... Vacation is one thing, those are well deserved breaks, but to not be able to write is another. So... I'm thankful that I'm able to write again...

    Well... The euro went into a tailspin yesterday, and for once it wasn't Greece so much... This time it was a little Greece, and a lot Portugal. The ratings agencies downgraded Greek debt to junk... And they downgraded Portugal's debt from A- to A-2, with a negative outlook. The fear that Greek's debt problems would spread, is coming to fruition... The euro fell to a 1-year low during the day, and the selling didn't stop in the U.S!...
  • Clairvoyant Pundits?

    In This Issue..

    * Euro backs off yesterday's high...
    * More tough talk from Germany....
    * Brazil talks about weakening real...
    * Waiting on Aussie CPI tonight...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's still raining here, but forecast to stop today... The temperature dropped big time too, bringing back cold air... Little Delaney Grace, and I were bummed out that we couldn't go outside yesterday!

    Well... As the day went on yesterday, things got more mixed up... I kept reading news stories stating that the euro was falling VS the dollar, but all the while, the currency screen kept showing the euro rising, actually getting very close to 1.34 on the day...

    So, you can't always take what you hear or read as fact... Or... As Marvin Gaye would said years ago... People say believe half of what you see, Son, and none of what you hear....
  • US data comes in stronger than expected...

    In This Issue..

    * US data comes in stronger than expected...
    * Worries over Greece pushes dollar higher...
    * China grows at 11.9%...
    * Australia may look to pause?...

    Good day, it is tax day which is not usually a happy day for the 51% of the folks who have to pay the taxman. Chuck would take the opportunity to break into the Beatles song right now, but I'm not as good with lyrics, so you will just have to hum it in your head. The dollar was down in trading yesterday, as most of the data released was positive and emboldened traders to move money out of safe havens. But overnight the Asian markets decided to take the dollar higher, and the Europeans are continuing to buy greenbacks. I'll get to what caused the big change in a second, but first I will review all of the data we got yesterday morning....
  • Euro falls as Greece pushed toward IMF...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro falls as Greece pushed toward IMF...
    * Decision on Norwegian interest rates...
    * Canadian dollar rises...
    * Kiwi to outpace Australian dollar...

    Good day, the dollar gained ground across the board as the news hit that the IMF will be brought in to help rescue Greece. The dollar was also helped by data which showed existing housing sales fell by less than expected in February. We will get additional news on the status of the US economy today, with the release of durable goods and new home sales numbers for February. We will get a rate decision by the Norwegian central bank today, which could stoke calls for higher rates here in the US. But the big news overnight is concerning the euro (again!).

    The euro sold off by a full percentage point vs. the US$ after both Germany and France are reported to have agreed to have the IMF involved in aid to Greece. This is an about face for European leaders who announced last week that they had agreed on a European solution to the Greek crisis. But Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel threw a spanner in the works a week ago when she said Germany would not participate in giving Greece financial aid. This threw the euro into crisis mode again, as the 'agreement' reached early last week never materialized....
  • Merkel throws Greece under the bus...

    In This Issue..

    * Merkel throws Greece under the bus...
    * Canadian dollar moves higher...
    * China policy causes carry reversal...
    * Jobs data to move the markets...

    Good day... And good morning to all of you. I arrived in the 'sunshine' state only to find rain and cold. It is actually a bit colder here than back home in St. Louis, but the trip down went well, I got to do my run on the beach, and I had a great dinner with a large group of EverBankers last night; so I'm not going to let the weather get me down.

    The German's broke rank with the rest of the EU and suggested Greece should turn to the IMF for support. The euro had rallied over the past couple of days after it seemed the EU finance ministers had agreed on a loan facility to back the Greek government. But Germany's Angela Merkel threw a cat among the pigeons today when she said Greece should not look to the EU but should turn to the IMF if it needs aid. So traders immediately started selling the euro again as the black cloud of a possible Greek default fell hung back over the market....
  • Greek debt is the euro's Sword of Damocles....

    In This Issue..

    * Greek debt crisis continues to hang over the euro...
    * Moody's says the UK and US debt ratings are secure, for now...
    * Swiss National Bank lets the franc appreciate...
    * Lots of data on tap in the US this week...

    Good day, and welcome to another week. The alarm clock seemed to go off an hour early this morning, as my body hasn't yet adjusted to daylight savings. I have heard several reasons for the semi annual adjustment of our clocks, but still don't buy into it. I think everyone should just agree to leave the clocks alone and I for one vote to leave them where they are right now, giving us an extra bit of sunlight in the evenings. We didn't see much sun here in St. Louis this weekend, as a soft spring rain has been coming down for the past 3 days....
  • Traders fear Chinese 'bubbles'....

    In This Issue..

    * Traders fear Chinese 'bubbles'...
    * Bollard leaves rates unchanged... ...
    * Aussie dollar rallies...
    * Pound sterling rallies, but it can't last...

    Good morning, Chuck headed out the door with a huge smile on his face yesterday as he heads down to spring training. With Chuck down in Florida, he handed the keyboard over to me for the rest of March. I am excited to be able to bring you the Pfennig over the next few weeks, and appreciate the opportunity to share my thoughts on the currency markets with all the loyal readers. For those of you who are new to the Pfennig, I have been told my style is a bit more 'dry' than Chuck's (I can't even come close to his encyclopedic knowledge of lyrics); and I typically get the Pfennig sent out a bit later than Chuck. But I will try my best to keep everyone informed and get this out in a timely manner. Lets get started....
  • Loose Lips, Sink Ships...

    In This Issue..

    * Greek PM stops currency rally...
    * Will Fed stop mortgage buying program?
    * Aussie jobs report is strong!
    * The history of a Pfennig For Your Thoughts...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The monsoons are coming to the Midwest... I believe I saw the weather report for this area showing rain today and the rest of the week... I should leave my car outside, to get a 'wash'! HA!

    Well... During World War II, there was a saying, that, 'loose lips, sink ships'... I think Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, should have taken those words to heart yesterday... You see, the currencies, led by the beleaguered euro, were rallying, and the single unit was nearing 1.37, when Papandreou made a statement that sunk the rally's ship... He said that 'Greece's debt problems could soon spread to the rest of Europe and mean a weaker euro'...
  • Big Ben Talks Rate Hikes...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a very tight range...
    * Aussie job creation soars!
    * Oil pushes loonies higher...
    * The Mogambo Guru returns!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... It's a BIG night at the Butler house... Not really at our house, but more the Fabulous Fox! My little buddy Alex, and the jazz band he plays guitar for, will be performing tonight at the Fabulous Fox, which for those of you not familiar with the Fox, it's a beautiful refurbished theater here in St. Louis... Alex also has a big guitar solo, so this should be good!

    OK... Well, the 'experts' that thought the Trade Deficit was going to narrow in December got their lunch handed to them yesterday, when not only did the Trade Deficit NOT narrow, but widened from $35 Billion to $40 Billion! Now that stinks! And... I'll tell you right now, it will deduct from the 5.7% GDP figure that was printed a couple of weeks ago. Yes, this increase in the Trade Deficit will probably reduce the GDP figure to at least 5%...

    ...