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  • China & Australia Team Up!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk is back ON!

    * Aussie GDP prints strong!

    * Home Prices rise in June...

    * Canadian GDP weakens...

    ...
  • US housing starts suffer…

    In This Issue..

    * Housing starts suffer...
    * Stressful times in Europe...
    * Aussie dollar moves higher...
    * Canada to raise rates...

    The news which drove the markets yesterday was no big surprise for the desk. Homebuilder confidence here in the US dropped to the lowest level since April 2009 as the homebuyer credits expired. Today we will get additional data on the housing market which is expected to show US housing starts continue to fall while foreclosures climb. While prices steadied over the past couple of months there is still a backlog of homes facing foreclosure which will equate to a very slow recovery for the housing markets. And in the US, as the housing goes so does the economy; so the data is not a good sign for our nascent recovery....
  • Aussie Job Creation Soars Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on Wednesday...
    * And hold on to gains overnight!
    * Loonies outperform on the day...
    * More 'an inconvenient debt'...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It sure has been a Tub Thumpin' Thursday so far, as the Asian and European markets are hopping, and in Australia, the jobs just keep coming! All that and more on this Tub Thumpin' Thursday, that, as our little Christine would tell me is 'my Friday'!

    OK... Front and Center this morning, yesterday I told you, well, let's just go to the archives and see what I told you word for word... Pfennig 7/7/10: 'Today, we'll see the latest labor report from Australia. In recent months, the jobs data has consistently surprised to the upside each month, so it's not like going out on a limb to say that I expect the job creation to be better than the +15,000 that's forecast.'...
  • Gold Falls Below $1,200...

    In This Issue..

    * A Risk Off day...
    * Currencies rally on Tuesday...
    * Chinese bank has strong IPO...
    * Kicking the can down the street...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! It was a Terrific Tuesday for the currencies VS the dollar, it was not a Terrific Tuesday for Gold, and the Cardinals!

    Front and Center this morning, Gold is retreating again today and has fallen well below $1,200... Here's the skinny... Yesterday, it was announced that China's Agricultural Bank of China reported a very successful public offering, raising more than $22 Billion. Now, what does this have to do with a Gold sell off I hear you saying? Ahhh grasshopper... Come, sit, let's discuss...

    Basically, it's like this... If a Chinese Bank can pull off a very successful IPO without breaking a sweat, then the daggers can be put away on a global risks, and that could be seen in the performance of equities all across the board yesterday....
  • Questioning China... Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion takes over...
    * Gold fails to reach all-time high...
    * Debasing is good?
    * Treasury yields plummet!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it looks like the hurricane in the Gulf will veer left, and avoid the 'spill area'... So, those guys working in the Gulf finally catch a break! The bias to sell dollars didn't last too long yesterday, about as long as it takes for an Albert Pujols home run to leave the park! This back and forth stuff is really beginning to give me a rash, folks...

    Yesterday, the selling of the currencies and metals began with Gold... The shiny metal had climbed to just above $1,260, but could not go further, and apparently, traders threw in the towel because Gold couldn't go past its all-time high of $1,266... Gold began to sell off and in the blink of an eye, it went from being up $8, to being down $14! OUCH!...
  • ‘For Much Longer’...

    In This Issue..

    * Aussie PM resigns!
    * Aussie mining tax is dead!
    * New Home Sales plummet 33%!
    * Fed is not so "cocky" any longer...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because of some good, no great news from Australia overnight! It certainly isn't because of the Housing data that printed yesterday! And the Fed isn't so 'cocky' about the economy suddenly... Hmmm... These things and more, as we explore our Tub Thumpin' Thursday, so let's go!

    Front and Center this morning, Julia Gillard became Australia's first female prime minister after Kevin Rudd stepped aside as leader of the governing Labor Party, paving the way for the government to drop a controversial new 40% levy on mining profits that has damaged its standing in voter polls.

    ...
  • Re-Thinking China...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets sell off...
    * Is China trying to appease G-20?
    * Aussie commodity profits skyrocket!
    * Gold sells off by $22...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Are you full? You know appetite wise... Probably not, for most of you read the Pfennig in the morning, with a cup o' Joe... The renewed appetite for Risk that the markets were displaying yesterday disappeared yesterday afternoon... The markets were full of risk, I guess... For the selling was swift, and damaging to the levels the currencies, commodities, and stocks had gained overnight on the news that China would allow more flexibility in the renminbi...

    See how fickle these markets / traders are? Very! You had a day that everyone was looking forward to, China allowing the renminbi to gain VS the dollar again, and just threw it to the roadside... UGH!

    ...
  • A Return To Debit Crisis Trading...

    In This Issue..

    * Strong euro rally fizzles out overnight...
    * Russia to add C$ and A$'s?
    * IMF sides with U.S. on Chinese currency policy...
    * Aussie housing starts are strong...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday... Man! Did we have some torrential downpours yesterday! The creek that my yard backs to was 'a risen'! I can't imagine all the rainouts of ballgames this spring... It's one of the things that drove me crazy, when I was a baseball manager...

    OK... The rain was coming down hard on the dollar yesterday too... But, this morning, when I turn on the screens, it looks like that dollar selling that went on all day yesterday, has had the brakes applied. I would say slammed on, but it all happened while I was sleeping, so I don't really know for sure!...
  • Jim Rogers In The News...

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally overnight...
    * U.S. Retail Sales drop -1.2%!
    * The Chinese respond to Geithner...
    * History to repeat?...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! WOW! What a great weekend enjoyed by yours truly... Lots of friends, to share good times with! The weather tried to ruin everything, but we didn't let it! I'll begin this week's Pfennigs with a little story that happened this morning...

    I arrived in the parking garage across the street from our building, not exactly the best situation for someone that's partially crippled and has a blood clot in their leg, but that's a story for another day. I got out of my car, and said, 'Hmmm... Wouldn't it be nice to see the euro trading with a 1.22 handle this morning?' Then said, 'Nah, it didn't look too good on Friday.'......
  • Risk On, Risk Off...

    In This Issue..

    * Bundesbank hurts euro...
    * A$ is best performer overnight...
    * Is Gold a euro replacement?
    * 10-year Treasury yields soar higher...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because I got the go-ahead for the next step to replace my eye with a prosthesis that looks like an eye... Just looked up to see Robin Meade back from vacation, so it's a double Tub Thumpin' Thursday now!

    OK... Recall yesterday's talk about the trading pattern that had existed for 4 consecutive days? Well, that was throw to the roadside yesterday, as the U.S. session went back to beating on the euro, and other currencies......
  • SNB Is Wrong!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro rallies...
    * Risk returned during Tuesday's U.S. session...
    * Gold rises above $1,200 again...
    * Italy announces Budget Cuts...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I go back to the eye surgeon today... If it all looks good, then I go to see the Ocularist, who will hand paint a shell to go over the prosthesis that replaced my eye. The shell will match my right eye, and I won't look so 'creepy' as my beautiful bride says, anymore... Funny? Yes, but creepy... No!

    OK... What a strange pattern we seem to be in the past few days of trading... It used to be the overnight markets would run the currencies up VS the dollar, and the U.S. session would knock them back down... That's reversed these days. Yes, the overnight markets have been pushing the currencies down, and the U.S. session has been picking them up......
  • US data comes in stronger than expected...

    In This Issue..

    * US data comes in stronger than expected...
    * Worries over Greece pushes dollar higher...
    * China grows at 11.9%...
    * Australia may look to pause?...

    Good day, it is tax day which is not usually a happy day for the 51% of the folks who have to pay the taxman. Chuck would take the opportunity to break into the Beatles song right now, but I'm not as good with lyrics, so you will just have to hum it in your head. The dollar was down in trading yesterday, as most of the data released was positive and emboldened traders to move money out of safe havens. But overnight the Asian markets decided to take the dollar higher, and the Europeans are continuing to buy greenbacks. I'll get to what caused the big change in a second, but first I will review all of the data we got yesterday morning....
  • Singapore announces a revaluation...

    In This Issue..

    * An Asian currency announces a revaluation...
    * Growth in the Asia-region benefits Australia...
    * Brazil to raise rates...
    * US trade deficit widens, pushing the dollar lower...

    Good day, it certainly was a good day here at EverBank yesterday. I will start today's Pfennig off with some good news which Chuck shared with the desk yesterday afternoon. The scans which he underwent last week came back clean, so the cancer is limited to the mass behind his eye, and hadn't spread to any other part of his body. This was just about as good as news as he could receive, and now he heads to the eye doctor to figure out a plan to deal with the mass. He wanted me to let everyone know how much he appreciates your emails of support....
  • Merkel throws Greece under the bus...

    In This Issue..

    * Merkel throws Greece under the bus...
    * Canadian dollar moves higher...
    * China policy causes carry reversal...
    * Jobs data to move the markets...

    Good day... And good morning to all of you. I arrived in the 'sunshine' state only to find rain and cold. It is actually a bit colder here than back home in St. Louis, but the trip down went well, I got to do my run on the beach, and I had a great dinner with a large group of EverBankers last night; so I'm not going to let the weather get me down.

    The German's broke rank with the rest of the EU and suggested Greece should turn to the IMF for support. The euro had rallied over the past couple of days after it seemed the EU finance ministers had agreed on a loan facility to back the Greek government. But Germany's Angela Merkel threw a cat among the pigeons today when she said Greece should not look to the EU but should turn to the IMF if it needs aid. So traders immediately started selling the euro again as the black cloud of a possible Greek default fell hung back over the market....
  • Traders fear Chinese 'bubbles'....

    In This Issue..

    * Traders fear Chinese 'bubbles'...
    * Bollard leaves rates unchanged... ...
    * Aussie dollar rallies...
    * Pound sterling rallies, but it can't last...

    Good morning, Chuck headed out the door with a huge smile on his face yesterday as he heads down to spring training. With Chuck down in Florida, he handed the keyboard over to me for the rest of March. I am excited to be able to bring you the Pfennig over the next few weeks, and appreciate the opportunity to share my thoughts on the currency markets with all the loyal readers. For those of you who are new to the Pfennig, I have been told my style is a bit more 'dry' than Chuck's (I can't even come close to his encyclopedic knowledge of lyrics); and I typically get the Pfennig sent out a bit later than Chuck. But I will try my best to keep everyone informed and get this out in a timely manner. Lets get started....
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