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  • Another New Record Level For Gold!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk players come back out to play...
    * Waiting on the Fed's statement...
    * Yield differentials come into focus...
    * Lisbon Treaty gets signed / ratified...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Did you see the strong performance that Gold put in yesterday? And it didn't stop yesterday, overnight Gold is up another $7 on top of the +$20 gain it had yesterday... I've got some info on that, we can talk about later...

    Oh Shoot Rudy! Let's talk about it right here, right now! It's not every day that Gold not only goes past its previous all-time record high, but obliterates the previous figure! I know you're wanting to take a peek at the price of Gold in the currency round-up portion of the Big Finish, so go ahead, and then come on back... How'd that $1,090 and change price look to you? Pretty sweet, eh? That is as long as you are a Gold holder!...
  • Carry trades unwind...

    In This Issue..

    * Carry trades unwind...
    * Euro zone GDP falls...
    * Will TIC flows be enough??
    * Aussie dollar predicted to outperform...

    Good day...Chuck handed me the Pfennig this morning, as I took an early flight home yesterday and he got back to St. Louis much later than I did. The Las Vegas Money Show went well, as Chuck packed the presentation rooms with investors looking to learn more about investing in Gold and currencies. Attendance seemed like it was down a bit, but we stayed busy at the booth with investors looking for diversification. We also got to see a number of 'old friends' who stopped by the booth to say hi. All in all it was a good three days, but as always, it is good to get home and back into the routine.

    The currency markets fell back into their established routine also, as fear drove investors out of riskier assets and back into the US$. We saw a general reversal of the carry trade, with the Japanese yen the only major currency which appreciated vs. the US$. As Chuck pointed out last week, investors feeling more confident about the global economy, dusted off their carry trades which had made them good money over the past few years. But traders are still a bit skittish, and move back out of these leveraged trades at the first sign of trouble in the global economy....
  • A Horrific Jobs Report!

    * 651K jobs lost in Feb... * Dec. and Jan Job losses revised up... * Talking Norway, Canada, Australia... * Brazil stealthlike for 3 months... ** A Horrific Jobs Report! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A wonderful weekend here in St. Louis, a taste of spring was in the air. I got to spend some time with some of my closest friends on Friday night, a good time was had by all! Well... Our Fantastico Friday was interrupted by that horrific Jobs Jamboree number that printed Friday morning... 651K jobs were lost in February, which let me remind you is a couple of days shorter than other months. So, it could have been worse! Hard to believe that could be the case, but it's true. The unemployment rate rose to 8.1%, from 7.6% in January. The jobless rate is the highest since 1983. The economy has now shed 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, with almost half of those losses occurring in the last three months alone....
  • The Day After...

    * I want change too! * Euro leads a currency rally! * Factory Orders plunge! * Carry Trades back on the table! ** The Day After... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The day after... The day after all the election ads ended... What a beautiful day it is! Well, in January we'll have a new president, one that had a call to "change"... I sure hope we can change... The problem is what I want changed hasn't been on any candidate's agenda... That's because, as the Big Boss Frank Trotter so eloquently said the other day when I complained about the lack of talk on this subject, "They can't get elected if they talk about that"... The "that" is simply the national debt, and how we'll deal with it as the baby boomers begin to draw on their entitlement programs... I think people now like to "live for today, and not worry about tomorrow" and that's a real shame. As I said a month or so ago... I'm going to have to sit down and write a letter to my sweetheart granddaughter, Delaney Grace, and apologize to her for leaving her generation with a debt load that requires a huge tax burden that her grand father didn't have, and a loss of freedoms, and life style, that her grand father had......
  • Election Day!

    * The winner is... Deflation! * Trading theme in place... * RBA cuts rates 75 BPS! * Manufacturing collapses! ** Election Day! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's Election Day! One more day of all that he said, she said, no I didn't, yes you did, aggravating election advertising! That's it! We're finally finished with all of it! Thank Goodness it's Election Day! TGIED! This will be the end of another of the things that's keeping the fundamentals in the back of the classroom. All we'll have left is the credit squeeze... Unfortunately though I feel like we're going to have to live with that one for some time to come! There are signs that things are loosening up, but it's a far cry from what should be considered as "normal" in the lending arena! As long as the credit squeeze remains in place and on the minds of traders & investors everywhere, we're stuck with the Trading Theme of 2008... Well, let's see, it didn't come into play until late July, so it should be called the Trading Theme of late 2008 and 2009....
  • The Trading Theme Remains In Place...

    * Heeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk... * Carry Trade Depth... * RBA intervenes... * Oil weighs on the loonie... ** The Trading Theme Remains In Place... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It's been a long time, now I'm coming back home, I've been away now, oh how, I've been alone... Two weeks gone by the wayside! This Friday is Halloween! WOW! Where did the month go? Airports, hotels, and taxi cabs, that's where! But, I did it... The Currency Tour is finished... Time well spent I might add, but very taxing on me... Of course, my beautiful bride tells me if I were in better shape, it wouldn't be so taxing! Well... As I look at the currency screens this morning, I see that nothing has changed... The Trading theme I left you with is still in place, as the more deeper, darker, dangerous outlook for the U.S. becomes, the more the dollar gets bought... Things look better, and the dollar will get sold... The dollar has become the new Japanese yen!...
  • Govt to follow Buffet's lead...

    * Govt to follow Buffet's lead... * Aussie $ has biggest gain ever... * Yen reverses on carry trades... * China's currency reserves rise... Good day...And what a day it was! As I stated in yesterday's Pfennig, Columbus day is just sort of a holiday for the markets. These 'semi-holidays' can create some volatile trading, as not all of the markets are open and many desks are short staffed. So with the Federal Reserve and the banking system closed, the equity markets had the largest one day gain in over seven decades. I guess the stock jockeys figured they weren't going to get any bad news out of the credit markets, which were closed, so no news is good news!! The rally was certainly welcomed, and hopefully some of the gains will stick today as we return to a normal trading environment. And I guess some of the credit for the stock rally has to go to finance ministers around the globe who finally agreed on a plan which seems to be able to work. The leaders of a majority of the worlds largest economies borrowed a page from Warren Buffet's playbook and decided to invest directly into some of their largest financial institutions. The Bush administration announced it would invest $125 billion in nine of the biggest US banks. The US move came after France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, and Austria committed $1.8 trillion to guarantee interbank loans and take equity stakes in European banks....
  • Iceland Melts Down...

    * RBA cuts rates 100 BPS! * Iceland to peg the krona... * High Yielders get whacked! * Gold rallies in the face of a strong dollar! ** Iceland Melts Down... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... Folks... The wheels, what was left of them, are really coming off this economy. It's a sad sight to see, but it's happening nonetheless, and there's no bailout, stimulus check, mortgage bill, truck loads of money supply, or whatever, that's going to stop this recession bus.. Memo to Paulson and Bernanke... Don't throw yourself under this recession bus... Well... The dollar continued to push the envelope against a handful of currencies yesterday. Up front and center, the high yielders got beaten about the head and shoulders by the dollar. Aussie, kiwi, real, rand, all took major hits from the dollar. It was one of the worst days I can remember seeing for these currencies. This huge sell off showed two things going against the high yielders... 1. Commodities (other than Gold) are getting whacked, and 2. The Carry Trade is Dead......
  • The Deed Is Done...

    * Adding $700 Billion to our debt... * U.S. loses 159K jobs in September! * Dollar rallies to 13-month high VS euro * Ding Dong the Carry Trade is Dead... ** The Deed Is Done... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The deed is done... The House, which had previously voted down the Bailout Package, decided to go ahead and put the country in debt by another $700 Billion... Yes, I know it the payouts will be in installments, but in my mind it was in one swoop that $700 Billion was added to our debt... And guess what? The dollar rallied on the news! More on the Bailout Package in a minute... The other thing happened on Friday was the awful Job Jamboree in which 159K jobs were reported lost by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) during September. The job losses were all over the place led by job losses in Manufacturing. And guess what? The dollar rallied on the news!...
  • Does The Bail Out Constitute A CDS Event?

    * A potential CDS debacle... * Currencies rally back... * Brazilian real history... * Saber rattling or geopolitical pressure? ** Does The Bail Out Constitute A CDS Event? Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Right out of the starters blocks this morning, I have to apologize for the tardiness of the Pfennig yesterday... We were experiencing some technical difficulties... In fact, if you sent me an email, I didn't get it yesterday! Things look better this morning, so, maybe we're back on track! I know it's no one's fault when this stuff happens, but it sure doesn't make me feel good about getting up at X:XX AM (I won't say because you will think I'm crazy!) to come in and write the Pfennig, only to see it not go out until late in the day! Well... The stock market here in the U.S. sure liked the news about Fannie and Freddie! I guess, they, just like the dollar bulls, didn't get the memo that this will put billions of dollars of tax burden on taxpayers, and most likely is going to cause a major disruption in the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) that are on the books... Oh, well, we have to learn to deal with mental giants all our lives, this is just another case of that!...
  • More Profit Taking...

    * The Big Dog leads currencies down... * Game On for the Carry Trade again! * More rate hikes for Australia? * Norges Bank to remain on hold......
  • Aussie Trade Deficit Narrows!

    * More Jobs data and talk... * Currencies see some healing... * RBA leaves rates unchanged... * The cows are out of the barn!...