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Daily Pfennig
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  • Govt to follow Buffet's lead...

    * Govt to follow Buffet's lead... * Aussie $ has biggest gain ever... * Yen reverses on carry trades... * China's currency reserves rise... Good day...And what a day it was! As I stated in yesterday's Pfennig, Columbus day is just sort of a holiday for the markets. These 'semi-holidays' can create some volatile trading, as not all of the markets are open and many desks are short staffed. So with the Federal Reserve and the banking system closed, the equity markets had the largest one day gain in over seven decades. I guess the stock jockeys figured they weren't going to get any bad news out of the credit markets, which were closed, so no news is good news!! The rally was certainly welcomed, and hopefully some of the gains will stick today as we return to a normal trading environment. And I guess some of the credit for the stock rally has to go to finance ministers around the globe who finally agreed on a plan which seems to be able to work. The leaders of a majority of the worlds largest economies borrowed a page from Warren Buffet's playbook and decided to invest directly into some of their largest financial institutions. The Bush administration announced it would invest $125 billion in nine of the biggest US banks. The US move came after France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, and Austria committed $1.8 trillion to guarantee interbank loans and take equity stakes in European banks....
  • The Deed Is Done...

    * Adding $700 Billion to our debt... * U.S. loses 159K jobs in September! * Dollar rallies to 13-month high VS euro * Ding Dong the Carry Trade is Dead... ** The Deed Is Done... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The deed is done... The House, which had previously voted down the Bailout Package, decided to go ahead and put the country in debt by another $700 Billion... Yes, I know it the payouts will be in installments, but in my mind it was in one swoop that $700 Billion was added to our debt... And guess what? The dollar rallied on the news! More on the Bailout Package in a minute... The other thing happened on Friday was the awful Job Jamboree in which 159K jobs were reported lost by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) during September. The job losses were all over the place led by job losses in Manufacturing. And guess what? The dollar rallied on the news!...
  • Turning Japanese?

    * Profit taking in the currencies... * German Business Confidence falls... * More talk of the bailout package... * A strong statement on Aussie dollars... ** Turning Japanese? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another crazy day not only in the markets but on our trading desk, where the phones continue to light up. There's a ton of volatility in the markets these days, as witnessed by the roller coaster ride stock jockeys take every day, the no direction is a good direction course of currencies, and the ups and downs of bailout plans. It's all a little too much for yours truly some days, but I carry on... Take this morning... Please somebody take this morning! The euro was showing signs of wiping out yesterday's profit taking session early on, only to see its gains wiped out by a weaker than expected German Business Confidence report. Yes, German Business Confidence, as measured by the think tank, IFO, declined more than expected this month, to the lowest level in almost 3 years. I would say that with lower Oil prices, and weaker inflation, these German Business people's attitudes will be changing soon... The German economy, other than this report, is showing signs of strength, which is bang on what I've been trying to tell everyone that was throwing darts at the Eurozone economy... Remember 80% of trade in the Eurozone is among the Eurozone members......
  • Dollar continues to slide...

    * Dollar continues to slide... * Housing bailout passes congress... * Chinese Renmibi falls... * Aussie dollar peaked?... ** Dollar continues to slide... Good day... And welcome to the last week of July. I spent the past week fishing with my son and father in law up in Manitoba, Canada. We had some great weather, and caught an absolute ton of Walleye and Pike. My son caught a Pike almost as long as he is tall. Just a great guys trip; but enough about my time off, I'm back at work now, so lets get to the currency markets. The dollar continued to slide throughout Friday's trading as concern of further US credit losses trumped some negative data released in Europe. The dollar dropped for a second day against the Euro after a story in the Financial Times quoted Gary Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, saying the credit crunch will worsen. Nothing new here, but as Chuck stated in Friday's Pfennig, currency traders continue to play the game of "Who's Data is Worse" with the US economic data coming in even worse than the rest of the world....
  • Credit Woes Sink The Dollar!

    * No Bailout for Freddie and Fannie... * The euro reaches a new record high! * More risk today... * Aussie hits 25-year high! ** Credit Woes Sink The Dollar! Good day... And a Tip Top Tuesday to you! I thought I would change it up there today... Well... Overnight, we've seen the euro reach a new record high VS the dollar, only to give some of that ground gained back on some weak German data. There was more news yesterday regarding the Freddie and Fannie saga, but I've grown tired of that talk, we dance now! Seriously, though, I have grown tired of all that Freddie and Fannie talk, that I'm going to go through an exercise explaining what GSE's are and then go on with life... So... The euro reached a new record high overnight of 1.6038! WOW! This was reached based on the fears that credit problems in the U.S. are going to put the kyboshes on what little economic growth we now have. But the shine on the euro was rubbed out by a very weak ZEW... German Investor Confidence as measured by the think tank, ZEW, fell to a record low this month on the surging inflation problems, and rising interest rates. So for now, the euro is back below 1.60, but hear me now and listen to me later... This ZEW will soon be in the rear view mirror, and the euro won't have that albatross around its neck as it revisits its overnight high....
  • Another Bad Week for the Dollar...

    * Another bad week for the dollar... * A monoline bailout plan in the works? * Kiwi near a 22-year high! * Precious metals are telling us something......