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  • Chuck asks 'Where's the money??'

    In This Issue..

    * Chuck's parting shots...
    * Greenspan still demands the spotlight...
    * Asian rally helps the kiwi and Aussie dollar...
    * Gold pauses its recent rally.

    Good day. Chuck is headed down to Springfield with his family for their annual summer camping adventure, so he handed off the responsibilities of the Pfennig to me. But as usual Chuck left me a good bit of information before heading out the door; and here it is:

    Well, folks... Just some parting shots for you before I headed out the door on Friday...

    Right after I hit 'send' on Friday, and had told you the euro has sold off 1-cent, and drug the other currencies (except yen and francs) with it... The euro turned around, and headed north! I felt as though I had sent out some bad information! But, there's always a time to cut off, and when I did, the selling was going on......
  • Flexibility Is The Word Of The Day!

    In This Issue..

    * A Big Currency rally!
    * Renminbi to become flexible...
    * Unintended consequences...
    * Gold flies past line of resistance!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was Father's Day yesterday, I had a grand time, I hope you did too! It was extremely hot here, but shoot Rudy, it's summer... It's supposed to be hot!

    Well things heated up in the currencies this weekend... Yes, while everyone was wiping the milk from their mouths from their cereal they ate for breakfast on Saturday morning, the Chinese made a BIG announcement... Rather than tell you in my own words... Here is the official statement from the People's Bank of China (PBOC)......
  • Counting Flowers On The Wall...

    In This Issue..

    * A non-movement day in currencies...
    * Euro gets hit again by Greek debt levels...
    * Asia is bellwether for global growth...
    * Gold rallies!

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! I hear that the "rains" are coming today, and will be around until next Tuesday! We'll be water logged, eh? I want to thank everyone who sent along the 'welcome back' notes yesterday. I need to make something clear... I'm not at the office... Not yet, they won't let me... So, I'm writing from home, and I have to pat myself on the back because I didn't complain one iota about writing from home yesterday! HA!

    Talk about counting flowers on the wall, playing solitaire till dawn with a deck of 51, and all those other things that fall under the category of being bored, and dull... That was the day in currencies yesterday......
  • Singapore announces a revaluation...

    In This Issue..

    * An Asian currency announces a revaluation...
    * Growth in the Asia-region benefits Australia...
    * Brazil to raise rates...
    * US trade deficit widens, pushing the dollar lower...

    Good day, it certainly was a good day here at EverBank yesterday. I will start today's Pfennig off with some good news which Chuck shared with the desk yesterday afternoon. The scans which he underwent last week came back clean, so the cancer is limited to the mass behind his eye, and hadn't spread to any other part of his body. This was just about as good as news as he could receive, and now he heads to the eye doctor to figure out a plan to deal with the mass. He wanted me to let everyone know how much he appreciates your emails of support....
  • First week of April...

    In This Issue..

    * Jobs come in higher...
    * This week in data...
    * Will the RBA raise...
    * Is China sold on global recovery...

    Good day...And welcome to the first week of April. Hopefully everybody was able to enjoy the weekend...I know I sure did. Chuck is feeling under the weather today and Chris is still on vacation so I've been called from the bench to Pfill in today. It's always tough to get going on a Monday morning so it will probably be short and sweet today. So, on that note...let's jump right in.

    As Chuck mentioned Friday, we finally saw the color of the March employment figures and, as expected, we saw the jump most were looking for. Although the actual number of 162k was lower than the expected 184k gain, March represented the highest figure in 3 years. All three of the employment categories were in positive territory and each had revisions to the upside from last month's results....
  • High Yielders Rally...

    In This Issue..

    * Is it Game On for Carry Trades again?
    * A Trade-Free Zone for Southeast Asia!
    * 10-year yield rise will shut down the mortgage rally...
    * A min-rally for the euro this morning...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm already draggin' the line today on the 2nd day back from vacation! UGH! The High Yielders are back to work this week, as the currencies of Australia, South Africa, and Brazil are attempting a come-back VS the dollar. This and more, as we head into the last Tuesday of 2009...

    Well... The last Monday of 2009, was uneventful with the currencies remaining in Tupperware ranges (tight that is!), and with little to show in the way of any measurable appreciation VS the dollar. There was no sign of the U.S. Corporations repatriating their profits yesterday as was rumored... Of course they still have today, tomorrow and Thursday to do so...

    ...
  • China Grows at +8.9%!

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally is reversed overnight!
    * Pay Czar dreams...
    * Brazil may reverse capital inflow tax...
    * An Asian Union?

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It's raining outside, so... It must be a Thursday! Amazing how many Thursdays have seen rain this fall! The ground isn't the only thing that's getting watered down this morning...

    Front and Center this morning, the euro traded well past 1.50 yesterday afternoon, and drug all the other non-dollar currencies higher as the day went on. But overnight, all that giddiness with seeing the euro over 1.50 for the first time since August of 2008 (and then it was on the way down, instead of this time on the way up!), has been watered down......
  • A Bailout For The Big 3...

    * Another currency rally.... * Bank of Canada cuts 75 BPS! * A Santa rally? * What Asia thinks... ** A Bailout For The Big 3... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! We didn't get that snow I talked about yesterday, I guess the milk and bread on the grocery store shelves are safe today! Had to get "all dressed up" last night for a function that brought together a ton of old Mark Twain Bank people, among others. It was great, but I stood for two hours and I'm paying for it this morning... UGH! OK... Another day of "healing" for the currencies, as the 1.29 handle was achieved and held on to in the overnight markets. Slowly... Like sand through the hourglass, these are the days of currency healing! HA! That show, Days of our Lives, was burned into my brain as a kid, as it was my mother's fave soap....
  • US$ saved by oil...

    * US$ saved by oil... * US Recession? (not according to Paulson)... * New Zealand worst performer in July... * Big Mac Index says buy Asia... ** US$ saved by oil... Good day...And welcome to August. The markets had a little more movement yesterday as the US GDP report came in lower than expected, and had a hidden surprise for dollar bears (more on that later). In addition to the poor GDP numbers, Personal consumption dropped and the GDP Price Index also showed a decrease. The employment cost index was flat, and the weekly jobless claims were slightly higher than expected at 448k. More Americans filed initial unemployment claims last week than at any time in more than five years. The only positive piece of data released in the US yesterday was the volatile (and somewhat unreliable) Chicago Purchasing Managers number which showed an increase back above 50. With all the bad data, the dollar sold off rather sharply and the Euro jumped a full cent to trade over 1.57 for a short while. But the dollar bears didn't celebrate for long, as the dollar sharply reversed course as crude oil prices rode to its rescue. As I explained earlier in the week, the price of crude oil and the US$ have had a very tight relationship lately, with a correlation of .9. Just after the dollar fell due to the GDP releases, crude oil began a sharp $3 drop and saved the US$ from further losses. The price of oil has continued to slide, and is now down over 11% in the past month. This has helped prop the dollar up in spite of a number of poor economic reports here in the US....