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  • Opening Pandora's Box...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies back off...
    * More problems for BOA?
    * More on China...
    * Aussie Retail Sales rebound...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had someone last week in Bermuda ask me why I have my little sayings like Wonderful Wednesdays, and Fantastico Fridays... I told him that it had to do with my life scare of almost 2 years ago, and that I now celebrate each and every day! (well, maybe when I had pneumonia two weeks back I wasn't celebrating....)

    OK... I hope your Cinco De Mayo fun was... Well... Fun! We went out with some good friends, but was back home before bed time for yours truly... Still fun though!

    The currencies, led by the euro have run into a dollar road block... It's all about the Stress Tests this morning folks... It now appears that Bank of America (BOA) will need approx. $35 Billion, and not the measly $10 Billion rumored yesterday. That's quite a boat load of money, folks... So... All eyes are on the Stress Tests results which are expected to be released tomorrow. But this kind of rumor regarding BOA, is weighing heavily on the risk assets this morning, with a bias toward risk aversion....
  • Deleveraging pushes the US$ up...

    * Deleveraging continues to push $ higher... * Pound Sterling tumbles... * Canada cuts rates... * Argentina spoils appetite for emerging markets... ** Deleveraging pushes the US$ up... Good day... Wow, another unbelievable day/night in the currency markets. The dollar continued to run up vs. most of the currencies yesterday and last night as investors brought money back into the US. We continue to get calls from WorldMarket investors asking us what was pushing this dollar up, as all of the data seems to be negative for the US$. The only explanation which seems to make sense is the global deleveraging of investors. Here is as good an explanation as I can give. Over the past several years money was extremely cheap and investors took advantage of these cheap loans. Hedge funds, corporate investors, and even some individuals borrowed funds and placed them into higher yielding investments to earn the 'carry'. This occurred not only in the currency markets, but across the entire spectrum of asset classes. These investors were rewarded with incremental yields over 'cash' investors, and banks were more than willing to lend, so the amount of leverage continued to increase to absolutely absurd levels. Everything was fine until the housing market here in the US turned and losses started to show up on the books of some investors....