It's Opening Day!
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In This Issue.

* Currencies are mixed today .

* Euro rallies after brief selloff.

* RBA statement prints tonight .

* Chuck is back!.

It's Opening Day!.

Good Day! . And a Marvelous Monday to you! Yes, I'm back! And on what should be considered a national holiday. Baseball's Opening Day! Yes, I'm aware that some games have already been played, but as far as I'm concerned those were premature games, and the "real" Opening Day is today! My beloved Cardinals begin their quest to defend their National League Championship in 2013, in Cincinnati this afternoon. I would have thought the National League Champions would get to start the season at home. But the schedule maker must be a Reds fan! The Cardinals will depend on a lot of young kids this year. I sure hope they pan out.

Well. Did you see the 60 Minutes piece on the stock market manipulation last night? I don't normally watch 60 Minutes, but they advertised this piece during the NCAA Basketball game, and so I stuck around to watch it. All the time I was watching it I was thinking about 7 years ago, when I went on CNBC to talk to them about something I was seeing in the stock market that was indicating to me that something wasn't right. Some of you might remember, how the CNBC folks ridiculed me, laughed at me, and told me to take my theory to Hollywood. I wonder what those CNBC folks are thinking now?

Well. While I was gone, we saw a currency rally, and a dollar rally, we saw the Fed Heads, led by Janet Yellen, throw a cat among the pigeons by talking about an interest rate hike sooner than later, which really got the markets lathered up, but since then not much follow up and the thought is fading. I see that the price of Oil while gyrating a bit, is about in the same clothes it wore when I left ($101.43 VS $101.63 today), and so too is the 10-year Treasury yield (2.78% VS 2.74% today) . So, in essence, I didn't miss too much, except seeing the bright shining faces of my colleagues, and you dear readers!

Speaking of U.S. Treasury yields. I saw a report on the Bloomberg this morning that talked about how investors have been pulling out of U.S Treasury ETF's by the boatload. In March, they saw $7.86 Billion leave which was the biggest exodus since December 2010. Of course these investors are pulling out of the Treasury ETF because they think interest rates are going to rise and thus cause them to have losses. And of course, if they've held them longer than 1 year, they have already lost a bunch of value. Too bad they don't have a principal protected way to take advantage of rising yields.

OK. that's a teaser. But I can't say any more at this time. So, keep your ear to the ground to see what Bullwinkle has up his sleeve. I think you're going to like it.

The currencies are mixed today, but none are taking off in either direction, so it's all pretty muted. The euro lost ground overnight as inflation data again got the markets all lathered up about more stimulus by the European Central Bank (ECB), but as the morning has broken here in the U.S. the euro is moving up again, as calmer heads soon came to realize that the ECB isn't going to do anything at this point. Look. even from my perch on the deck overlooking the ocean, I could see that the ECB isn't going to upset the apple cart any further at this point. The euro is about in the same trading level as it was when the ECB last met, and that's all good as far as the ECB is concerned. The ECB will meet this week, so we'll see right away on Thursday if I'm right.

The Antipodean currencies of Aussie dollars (A$) and New Zealand dollars / kiwi, are both selling a bit this morning. Kiwi has really taken flight since I been gone, and most of that was because of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiking rates, as I said they would do, and then the scope looking forward saw what I saw, and told you about weeks ago. That the RBNZ's rate hike is not a one and done thing, and that there will be more this year.. Overnight, New Zealand Business Confidence showed some slippage in March, but remains around a 20-year high!

And the A$ weakness this morning has to be in sympathy of kiwi's selling, as New Home Sales in Australia rose 4.6% VS the previous month, so that should have been enough to hold the A$ steady Eddie. Maybe the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) statement this afternoon getting printed is haunting the A$ this morning. Remember that after the last RBA meeting, the RBA Gov. removed the language about the currency strength being a problem, and now the markets want to see if that was put in writing! I would think that once they do see it in writing that this current weakness in the A$ will be erased.

One asset that got whacked while I was gone was Gold. I read a piece from James Rickards this past weekend where he says to buy Gold now before it's too late. Let's listen in to what James Rickards had to say regarding U.S. Debt. "Our budget deficit in the U.S. is coming down, but our debt to GDP ratio is still going up. Policy-makers are saying they have cut the deficit from 10 percent of GDP to about three or four percent, but growth is only at two percent, so the debt to GDP ratio is still going up - we are still on the path to Greece."

But as Mike told you Palladium and Platinum are breaking their tie to Gold's performance, and moving higher. Remember, Palladium is the only metal between Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium that posted a gain VS the dollar in 2013. Not that past performances have anything to do with future performances, but there's got to be something there when the other three metals are getting whacked.

Did you see the Sunday Pfennig? In it, we talked about food inflation that's rising, and with the drought in California, it could get pretty ugly, and very quickly. You know the Fed wants benign inflation, around 2%, but they are going to have to be quick on their feet to deal with this rising food inflation, because. if they don't, it will get out of hand quickly. I know the Fed Heads like to remove food and energy from their inflation calculation because of the volatility of these two, but in reality, isn't that what consumers are facing whether it's volatile or not? Of course it is.

The Fed Heads have tried to throw everything but the kitchen sink at their desire to have inflation rise to 2%... Think about that.. Zero Interest Rates for years now. QE1, 2, 3, Twist and Shout, and Fed Speak. and none of it has worked. But now, food inflation is going to kick sand in the Fed Heads faces, but they will be oblivious to it, because they don't look at food inflation, and when they begin to look at it, it will be too late!

And with all that rising food inflation shutting down consumers' disposable income, the U.S. economy comes to a screeching halt. But, don't worry, be happy. The Fed Heads are one the case! But be awful happy that you own Gold, Silver, etc.

The IMM Futures Positions report came out this morning, and it showed that US Dollar long positions were once again cut last week, and are now at the lowest they've been since last October. But euro longs were cut for the first time in 7 weeks, leaving the Canadian dollar / loonie as the main beneficiary, and net short positions were cut by 37,000 contracts, a record one-week move for loonies positions!) Pound sterling longs edged higher, along with kiwi.

So, the futures boys and girls are feeling good about the dollar these days. and why should they? I know this is where the dollar bulls step in and give me 10 reasons from Sunday why the dollar should be getting bought. And for every reason they give me, I'll give them 2 to offset why dollars should be getting bought!

This is a HUGE data week for the U.S. Data Cupboard, ending the week with the March Jobs Jamboree, which even down South, I was hearing how this report would be HUGE due to the catching up from the weather problems. Right now the experts have the number of net jobs created at 194,000. But before we get to Friday's Jobs Jamboree, we'll have to deal with a plethora of data like the ISM Manufacturing Index, Trade Balance, ADP Employment Change, and so on. So, strap yourself in, keep your arms and legs inside at all times, and get ready for a fun filled week of data! HA!

For What It's Worth. On Friday morning, I was sitting and reading while waiting for a repair man to show up and fix my door, and thought I would check out King to see if they had a Richard Russell article, as I was in need of taking care of a lack of Richard Russell I was experiencing. And lo and behold they had one! And it was a quick one too, as Richard discusses why he's now buying physical Silver. Let's listen in.

"Here's what I did today. I took some unbacked junk currency called Federal Reserve Notes, and with them bought some constitutional money, known as silver. I consider gold and silver, now being manipulated, as on the bargain table. You and I, using Federal Reserve Notes, can go to our local coin dealer and swap junk Federal Reserve Notes for constitutional money, better known as gold and silver.

The current erratic and nervous markets are hardly conducive to peace of mind. And in my opinion, no amount of money is worth the loss of peace of mind. As I see it, peace of mind at this time and a reasonable position can be found in an actual physical position in silver and gold.

In relation to the enormous position in Federal Reserve Notes, the currently manipulated price of silver and gold puts them on the bargain counter. Over time, I believe the truth of the manipulation of gold and silver will come out. The ends that the Federal Reserve has gone to hold down the prices of gold and silver is both disgusting and immoral.

My final note: You can still buy constitutional money with the fiat junk that the Fed is turning out. I'm looking at a one-ounce silver coin, and on it I read the four words, "In God we trust." These words are redundant, since silver, like gold, is pure wealth, and there is no need of "trust" on the part of those holding it. I note the way that Federal Reserve Notes also state, "In God we trust." How dare they invoke God's help? In my mind, it is a blasphemy." - Richard Russell

Chuck again. You tell 'em Richard!

To recap. The currencies are trading mixed today, and seem to have gone back and forth from rally to getting sold while Chuck was gone. The two big events this week are the ECB meeting on Thursday and the Jobs Jamboree in the U.S. on Friday. But there will be plenty of data to look at leading into the latter part of the week. More inflation weakness in the Eurozone led to a brief sell off of the euro overnight, but the single unit has rallied back all morning. IMM futures show more dollar long positions being cut last week, and Chuck is back!

Currencies today 3/31/14. American Style: A$ .9230, kiwi .8650, C$ .9060, euro 1.3805, sterling 1.6650, Swiss $1.1320, . European Style: rand 10.5990, krone 5.9840, SEK 6.4815, forint 222.45, zloty 3.0235, koruna 19.8770, RUB 35.32, yen 103.20, sing 1.2590, HKD 7.7585, INR 59.88, China 6.1521, pesos 13.06, BRL 2.2605, Dollar Index 80.00, Oil $101.63, 10-year 2.74%, Silver $19.98, Platinum $1,421.93, Palladium $779.81, and Gold. $1,295.80

That's it for today. Yes, Opening Day. Well, beat the drum and hold the phone the sun came out today. We're born again, there's new grass on the field. A roundin' third and headed for home, it's a brown-eyed handsome man. Anyone can understand the way I feel. I hear Ozzie Smith has 100,000 signatures on his online petition to make Opening Day a National Holiday. I think he's going to need a few more. But this is the day that all teams, all players, and fans dream of Championships. Everything starts over today with baseball. I got to see 9 Spring Training games while I was gone, and I was wishing for more! I guess I need to get down to see games earlier in the month next year! HA! I had a great time with both family and friends while in S. Florida, so another successful trip to Spring Training was had! Well. thanks to Chris and Mike for taking the conn on the Pfennig while I was gone. And with that.. Thanks for reading the Pfennig, and I hope you have a Marvelous Monday!

Chuck Butler
EverBank World Markets

Posted 03-31-2014 12:03 PM by Chuck Butler
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