A Curious Upward Revision in U.S. GDP.
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In This Issue.

* Bias to buy dollars remains.

* Eurozone Confidence soars to 2-year high!

* Norwegian Retail Sales fall 1.3%.

* Canada's Current Account Deficit widens.

And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts!

A Curious Upward Revision in U.S. GDP.

Good day. And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's bound to be a Fantastico Friday, for a number of reasons. Let's see. front and center, it's the kick-off of a 3-day holiday weekend. And, for those of us that get paid on the 15th & 30th, this is payday! Of which, I would rather receive one than eat one! (although it is a tasty candy bar!) It's also the end of a very long week for me, as I've been running hot & cold. This morning hasn't started out good, in that regard, but. It can only get better from here! (See that's me!, always looking forward to what's ahead!)

And today, could also be a little strange with the asset classes as the volume will go stealth around noon today, as the boys and girls in NY head to the Hamptons around noon. So be careful out there this morning.. And what the heck, why not just close the computer down (after reading the Pfennig of course!), close the books, and start your Labor Day Holiday early? Sounds like a plan. and I love it when a plan comes together!

The currencies are weaker again this morning, although most of the losses in value were booked yesterday. The U.S. surprised the markets with their ability to cook the books enough so that an upward revision in GDP didn't look so curious to them. Of course it looked very curious to me, but then what else did I expect? The Fed Heads are bound and determined to get the unwinding of their latest bubble blowing machine started before they are unable to ever do it. And they would LOVE for the economic data to show the world that they are right to start tapering. It doesn't matter that no one questioned how 2nd QTR GDP jumped from 1.7% in the first print to 2.5% in the 2nd print! Isn't that just a little bit too much good, given the economic reports that started in March to be questionable at best? Of course it is. But the media is living with the wool pulled over their eyes, and have no gumption to remove the wool. Isn't it a shame?

Well, I got my blood going good writing that, and listening to Edwyn Collins sing his song, "A Girl Like You". That one will get your bopping in your chair! Ok. back to the serious stuff! I was interviewed by Kate Gibson of MarketWatch yesterday, she wanted to know what I thought the reaction of the stock market would be after the GDP report. Now mind you, this was before the stock market opened. So, I checked the stock futures and they were only up .3%... So, I told her that I would think the stock jockeys would be torn between two things (like torn between two lovers). Normally, stock jockeys would love a strong GDP report. But with this report being the last GDP report before the Fed Heads meet in September, one would think that this could be the straw that stirs their tapering drink, and any talk of tapering hasn't been for stocks.. Well, stocks ended the day up on the day. So, now the stock jockeys don't think the Fed Heads can taper? I doubt it. They know it's like California dreaming, it's becoming a reality.

A dear long time reader sent me a note yesterday and said that it's not just me that people don't want to come to listen to anymore, CNBC's ratings are at a 20-year low. And just to throw gas on this fire. I saw over at zerohedge.com that they call the stock market the, " Federal Reserve sponsored equity market" HAHAHAHAHAHA! U.S. equity trading volume in August is the lowest on average in 16 years! Where are the investors going? I wish I could say that bank deposits are soaring. but the money's not there either. And we know that Treasuries now are treated like persona non gratis. So, in the words of Jerry Maguire. Show Me The Money!

The euro is trying to hold on and stop the sliding this morning, and reports like the markets got on the European Confidence should help. Economic Confidence in the Eurozone soared to a 2-year high this month, as the Consumer sentiment index rose from 92.5 in July to 95.2 in August. Earlier this week we had a positive IFO report on Business Confidence, so things are looking brighter for the Eurozone, which just recently climbed out of the recession hole they had fallen into about 2 years ago. The Eurozone economy, as a whole, but led by Germany of course, is gathering steam. And with each of these stronger reports, the fears of another rate cut, which was probably about to be made at the last European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, are erased. And that's good for the euro, folks..

Norway received so not so good data this morning, as Retail Sales for July fell -1.3%, and the Unemployment rate remained steady at 2.8%... (it was expected to drop!) So the krone isn't participating in the euro's attempt to stop the sliding. I had a dear reader ask me about the krone, and whether he should bail or batten down the hatches. Well, you know me, I can't really tell someone what to do, but I can give you my opinion, which can be wrong (my wife loves when I have to type that!) But, I don't know how long you've held krone. You could have huge gains in the currency or be seeing some red. But either way. are you diversifying your investment portfolio? Or just seeking currency gains? To me, the only reason to do all this is to diversify your investment portfolio so that not all of the portfolio is denominated in dollars. In doing so, you provide a hedge against further dollar depreciation, which won't be a one-way street, and you could see losses at times. But you could also see currency gains on your hedge, and that would be like icing on the cake! Remember, dollar weakness is equal to loss of purchasing power for the dollar holder. So, you have to read between the lines, but I think I told you what you wanted to know about holding krone.

In Canada yesterday, we saw their Current Account Deficit widen, which I had thought would not be good for the loonie, and it wasn't. Today, we'll see the color of Canada's 2nd QTR GDP. I think we'll see their 2nd QTR GDP come in around 1.7%, which is where the U.S.'s should have been before going through the donut maker. Hmmm donuts. I think I'm doing my best Homer Simpson here, but my new taste for sweets, which I never really had before, but do now, has me thinking of donuts this morning. I'm just saying.

The Brazilian real saw more strength yesterday. Twice this week the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) has come to the aid of the real, first announcing a $60 Billion line to be used in intervention to defend the real, and then the 50 basis points rate hike I talked about yesterday. The double barrel shotgun approach has done wonders for the real which had fallen to a low of 2.4545 just a week ago to a recovering level of 2.36 this morning. (remember, real is a European priced currency, so as the price goes down, the value goes up!) Of course 2.36 is still a long way away from the lofty numbers the real used to have associated to it. But a positive move is still better than opening a bag of bees.

Gold is down $12 this morning, and has fallen back below $1,400. The Bloomberg has two stories this morning with different takes on Gold. the first one says, "Gold cuts monthly advance on speculation Fed will slow stimulus." And then that's followed by one that says, "Gold trade most Bullish since March on Syria Crisis." So. what's it gonna be boy? And just to repeat something I talked about yesterday, the miners in S. Africa have confirmed that they will go on strike on Monday. Hello, price manipulators? Yes, It's Chuck calling again to harass you. I just want to ask you a question. How can you explain to regulators your ever expanding short positions, with the largest Gold producing country going on strike, thus limiting the supply of Gold? Come on Lucy, you've got some 'xplainin' to do!

The U.S. data cupboard will yield July readings of Personal Income & Spending this morning to end our week. I'm certain that once again, we'll see that we spend more than we make. But think about this spending thing. I had a dealer friend (hi Shauna!) ask me if I thought everything in the world was OK now (with GDP up 2.5%) and I said, "No. it's all manipulated, cooked, and rolled out to make everyone happy so they'll go and spend money on flat screen TV's" . spend, spend, spend. That's what would make the Fed Heads & the Gov't happy. And it will make you happy too, until you realize that you could have bought Gold instead of another flat screen TV for your house that already has 6 TV's!

For What It's Worth. It's all me today folks. I've been doing a lot of deep thinking. (for my close circle of friends, we all know that means, right Kevin?) I mentioned the Fed's Bubble Blowing machine up top. and that's the focus of my soap box speech today. Are you ready? Here goes.

OK. Several times over the past few years I've listed the things that Fed Head James Bullard was quoted as saying were the benefits of QE. you know, lower rates, higher asset prices, and a lower dollar. But you know the one thing that he failed to list, and the one thing that the Fed refuses to admit they were a part of, is the bubble in Emerging Markets. Unintended Consequences, I'll call it. You see, by keeping rates ultra-low, investors sought out higher yielding places to invest. Remember what I always say, money goes where it's treated best. Those places were the Emerging Markets.

So, with the fear of removing QE, the markets are automatically of the belief that interest rates will rise. Shoot Rudy, after Big Ben first muttered the word "taper" Treasury yields have risen over 100 Basis points in the 10-year. was that a sell the rumor buy the fact trade? I doubt it. Should the Fed really go through with tapering, I would think Treasury yields will continue to rise, and that will draw more money home to (where it's treated best)

The Fed tried very diligently to explain the difference between tapering and keeping their interest rates low, but the markets aren't buying it. And the bond traders are taking back the responsibility of Treasury yields from the Fed.

So, what does this all mean for the Emerging Markets? Well, it's my opinion, and of course I could be wrong, that while suffering now, and in the near future, that the Emerging Markets will recover. First, without the off the charts growth, the Current Account Deficits they all have gained, will begin to narrow, and that will be a good thing going forward. Then organic growth in the countries, will take over, and within a few years, the Emerging Markets will be back to leading the world in growth.

And as far as the Fed's Bubble Blowing machine goes. You know the Fed Heads refused to admit that they had anything to do with the Tech Bubble, or the Housing Bubble, but we all know what caused those, for I've explained it to you so many times in the past, that you probably could give the presentation on The Fed's Bubbles instead of me! Bill Fleckenstein wrote a great book about 7 years ago, called "Greenspan's Bubbles. The Age of Ignorance at the Fed". Just in case you need some additional proof of what I tell you.

And that ends today's dissertation on what the Fed is doing to the Emerging Markets, I hope you enjoyed it. I'll be back next week with more, so until then, Have Fun!

To Recap. The bias to buy dollars remains throughout the currencies and metals this morning, although most of the value was transferred to dollars yesterday. Today could be strange with the boys and girls in NY heading to the Hamptons around noon today. Eurozone Confidence printed strong thus confirming the recovery is gathering pace. Gold falls back below $1,400, and the markets are torn on where to go with Gold. They should just ask me, I'll tell them!

Currencies today 8/30/13. American Style: A$ .8935, kiwi .7770, C$ .95, euro 1.3245, sterling 1.5505, Swiss $1.0755, . European Style: rand 10.3125, krone 6.11, SEK 6.6080, forint 227.05, zloty 3.2170, koruna 19.4180, RUB 33.24, yen 98.25, sing 1.2745, HKD 7.7555, INR 65.70, China 6.1709, pesos 13.30, BRL 2.3590, Dollar Index 81.95, Oil $107.85, 10-year 2.77%, Silver $23.69, Platinum $1,513.40, Palladium $728.58, and Gold. $1,395.12. and here's the link to take a peek at the U.S. Debt Clock. click here: http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html

That's it for today. Happy Birthday to my old latte' Buddy, Michelle. She dropped me like a bad habit a few years ago, but I don't hold that against her! HAHAHAHAHAHA! (She didn't drop me, I just stopped going, because I couldn't drink coffee at that time) College Football began last night, and my beloved Missouri Tigers will play tomorrow night. I wish them well on their 2nd season in the SEC. I'll be putting the Big Green Egg to the test this weekend. I can't wait ! I love to have the smoker going early in the morning. I know sounds like Robert Duval in the Vietnam movie, when he said, " I love the smell of napalm in the morning". But no! I love apple wood smoking filling the backyard with great aroma. It's the little things that make me happy folks. And with that, I'll get this out the door. Thank you so much for reading the Pfennig, and I also thank all of you who send me notes applauding what I've written from time to time. Just being myself. Now, it's payday, it's the kickoff of a 3-day holiday weekend, and it's Friday, let's go out and make it a Fantastico Friday! Ready, Set, Go!

Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
1-800-926-4922
1-314-647-3837





Posted 08-30-2013 12:46 PM by Chuck Butler
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