In This Issue.
* BLS reports 171,000 new jobs.
* Bias to buy dollars intensifies.
* RBA to announce a rate cut this afternoon.
* Euro falls though 200-Day moving avg.
And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts!
Who Is The BLS Attempting To Fool?
Good day. And a Marvelous Monday to you! The last day before the Big Election Day here in the U.S. I hope you all enjoyed the Big Boss, Frank Trotter's, analysis of the election, in the Sunday Pfennig & Pfriends. On top of all the other things that Frank does better than most people, he also writes! He will be able to fall back on that when he retires one day. And he'll be better than anyone else doing it at that time!
Now, you may think I'm just trying to build up some brownie points with the Big Boss. But I've told him this to his face for years now, and have invited him to participate in the Pfennig, whenever he feels like it. Besides, at my age, I've learned that those brownie points don't really matter when the rubber meets the road!
OK. On Friday, I told you that the bias to buy dollars was strong, and that traders were pricing in a disappointing Jobs Jamboree. However, a funny thing happened on the way to the forum. Instead of a disappointing Jobs number for October, the number was questionable once again. Yes, I'll just throw that out there, and get it on the discussion board, Front & Center this morning. Oh! And traders changed horses in the middle of the stream, and decided that the number of jobs created was worth switching their reason to buy dollars.
So. The Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) said that the economy added 171,000 jobs in October. Here's what questionable. of the 171,000, 90,000 were added by the BLS for the birth/ death adjustment. Now, why do I say that 90,000 jobs added out of thin air, is questionable? Well, long time readers know that the Birth / Death Model, tries to account for new businesses that open up and aren't online with reporting jobs yet. (they also are supposed to subtract for businesses that close). And just last week I reported to you that CEO's had reported that they were laying off and firing large numbers of workers. So, if little old me came across that story, they had to have at least "heard about it" at the BLS, right? So, then, why would they add 90,000 jobs knowing all too well that more jobs are being lost right now?
So, here's how my mind works. 171,000 minus 90,000 and you get 81,000, which is much closer to the 111,000 I called for on Friday, and. would be considered disappointing, right? And then to just muddy up the picture even more. The BLS tells us 171,000 jobs were added but the Unemployment Rate increased to 7.9% from 7.8%... (remember last month, the BLS said we added 114,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell from 8.1% to 7.8%?) is your mind spinning around and performing carnival tricks in an attempt to make sense of this Unemployment Rate? Mine is. and that's why I say the BLS just throws a dart at numbers on the wall to get the rate!
OK. if only I could hold to my thought from a month ago that I was not going to let any economic data report that printed before the election carry any weight. Unfortunately, the markets were all over this BLS Jobs data like a cheap suit. So. since I write about the markets, I have to spend time on this. I don't buy the number. You can't make me! HA!
So. like I said above, currency and metals traders decided to change horses in the middle of the stream, and switched back to the trading pattern that rewards the dollar for strong U.S. economic data. I think that the overnight markets that were gone for the weekend when the Jobs number printed on Friday, saw this data last night when they returned to their desks, they laughed. The chuckled and probably fell out of their chairs. But, then, they pulled themselves back up, and decided to keep the bias to buy dollars in place.
Then in the morning sessions of Europe, the traders there kept the bias to buy dollars in place. The euro has really taken it on the chin in the past week. And there really hasn't been any news from the Eurozone to make the euro lose 2-cents in the past week. Greece's Gov't will present a new austerity package to the Greek Parliament today, with a vote announcement expected on Wednesday. I look for this new package to pass. Look, Greece really has no choice, except to drop out of the euro and default. So, the Greeks might not like being told that these austerity measures are coming, but there's not much they can do about, except burn down the library.
Tonight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet. and even though I've been telling you how the aggressive calls to cut rates in 2013, have been getting pared back, that doesn't change what the markets had already priced in. and that is one final cut for 2012. And I believe we'll see that tonight. The markets are probably thinking the rate cut will come in December, as they are marking up the Aussie dollar (A$) (one of the few currencies in the black this morning) this morning. But. I believe it will come this afternoon. so look for that. but remember, this cut is already priced in. so the actual pain to the A$ will be muted. at least that's my opinion, and I could be wrong.
Well. I really don't believe that much that happens today and tomorrow, data wise, is going to garner much attention, as all eyes are on the U.S. election tomorrow. I was watching some football yesterday, and the announcers for the Washington Redskins and Carolina Panthers game, said that since 1940, the outcome of the Redskins' game prior to the election had been the indicator of who wins 17 of 18 times. So. if the Redskins won, the incumbent won, if the Redskins lost the challenger won. Well. if that means anything to you. the Redskins lost yesterday.
Funny little indicators always intrigue me, I have no idea why. I guess it plays well with my loving a good conspiracy theory! I just know that I'll be so happy to not see election ads on the TV going forward.
So, I already told you about the RBA meeting tonight, but that's not all for this week! We'll also see the Central banks of the Eurozone (ECB) and the U.K. (BOE) meet this week. I really don't believe the ECB will have any rabbits up their sleeve, but the BOE could very well, add to their current total of Quantitative Easing (QE). The outcomes for the euro and the pound sterling won't be driven by the Central Bank meetings this week though. But there's always that "chance", eh?
I've watched the price of Gold go from down $1 to up $2.75 this morning, not much movement, not like the further taking down of the shiny metal last week. Did you see the story that appeared late last week that Gold is in short supply in Nepal, and that bullion traders had stopped sales of Gold bars and coins due to a failure by the commercial banks to deliver supply. Hmmm. and price of Gold fell? Supply & demand. What don't the price manipulators understand? This is a crying shame that this gets to continue on and on and on, like the Energizer Bunny.
The price of Gold is still above the 200-day moving avg, so the shiny metal has that going for it! But, you have to wonder if the price manipulators (PM's) have the goal of taking down the price of Gold below that 200-day moving avg? Hey! If you're not going to get your wrists slapped for doing the deed, then you just continue doing the deed, eh? You betcha! And like I've said before the PM's would get their due if we could muster up enough demand for physical Gold & Silver. It's got to be physical, not ETF's. Folks, those ETF's are not Physical Gold. and you can't get physical Gold out of them!
The euro fell below its 200-day moving avg overnight (1.2830) to trade in the 1.27 handle. It's not been a good year for the euro, as it spent the first 8 months of the year below the moving avg, and then things looked brighter, and the last two months it traded above the moving avg. This move lower could be the beginning of another period of euro weakness folks. I would watch carefully for that. for this is what normally happens when a currency recovers, and then can't add to that recovery, it eventually goes for a ride on the slippery slope.
Then There Was This. I have a good friend that goes back to my days at Mark Twain Bank. her name is Ellie, and she has an excellent mind for investments (and other things!) she has written a couple of books on investing through the years.. Well, when Ellie sees something that makes a lot of sense, she sends it to me.. As so it was on Saturday, when I received an email from Ellie. It was my friend John Mauldin's outside the box article. Here's a snippet from investment analyst guru, Charles Gave. "So the solution to our current malaise is very simple: We have to stop now. Reduce government spending, stop manipulating money, let market pricing return - or the result will be a vicious cycle of low growth and rising debt, or certain depression.
. The choice is just as simple for investors: Stick with countries that have avoided the worst of the bad policies, like Canada, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong or even Korea. All of these countries either kept fiscal balances and taxes low (or started reducing them), and/or regulated their financial systems to prevent casino madness.
Consider certain countries that are improving on the margin. This includes the UK. It also includes China, which is opening its capital account and liberalizing its financial system. "
Chuck again. Thanks to Ellie for sending this to me, and thanks to Charles Gave for his thoughts on what needs to happen here in the U.S. and then some choices as alternatives should the U.S. continue down this vicious cycle.
To recap. The bias to dollars that existed Friday, was given a boost as the Jobs Jamboree as reported by the BLS showed a rise of 171,000 jobs in October. I say hogwash! But it is what it is. The RBA meets tonight, and Chuck expects to see a rate cut tonight. The BOE and ECB also meet this week, with only more QE to be announced by the BOE. Greece presented a new austerity package to the Parliament for a vote Wednesday. And Gold gets taken down again.
Currencies today 11/5/12. American Style: A$ $1.0360, kiwi .8240, C$ $1.0035, euro 1.2780, sterling 1.5980, Swiss $1.0590, . European Style: rand 8.7365, krone 5.7495, SEK 6.7060, forint 221.05, zloty 3.2265, koruna 19.7405, RUB 31.70, yen 80.25, sing 1.2255, HKD 7.75, INR 54.60, China 6.2447, pesos 13.06, BRL 2.0335, Dollar Index 80.83, Oil $84.87, 10-year 1.69%, Silver $31.07, and Gold. $1,682.40
That's it for today. Happy Birthday Rachel! Ugly steel gray days with raw temperatures, are back for us all to enjoy (NOT!) Typical November. My poor Missouri Tigers outplayed Florida throughout their game last Saturday, but managed to lose it anyway. UGH! Next up is Tennessee this week. Still no hockey. I got out my Blues baseball cap in hopes it will be good luck for a settlement! Fat chance, eh? Well. time to go. last day before the election. Like I said I'll be glad to see it over with! Hopefully we won't having any hanging chads or any other nonsense with voting fraud. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday!
EverBank World Markets
11-05-2012 11:36 AM