A Jobs Jamboree Friday.
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In This Issue.

* Currencies remain stuck in a rut.

* euro held hostage by elections.

* A$ takes more hits.

* Gov't gets hands in Oil cookie jar.

And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts!

A Jobs Jamboree Friday.

Good day. And a Happy Friday to one and all.. Right now, it's not so much a Fantastico Friday, in fact right now, it's a draggin' the line Friday. Both the Cardinals and Blues lost yesterday, and I spent most of the night up with an upset stomach. UGH! So, no fun for me yet. But that will change, I can feel it in my bones.

Also feeling it its bones, is the price of Oil. after reaching a high of nearly $106 on Wednesday, the price of Oil has hit the slippery slope (yay!) all the way down to $101.27 this morning. While it will take awhile before this ride on the slippery slope is seen at the gas pump, if ever, the psychological feeling it has for consumers is good.. It won't play well with the petrol currencies, like: Norway, Canada, Russia, etc.

I'm going to get back to the price of Oil in a bit here, but first, the currencies. Well, the currencies are still stuck in that rut we talked about yesterday. the underlying bias remains to buy dollars right now, but it the bias is very weak folks.. very weak.

It is a Jobs Jamboree Friday. and right now the "experts" are saying that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will show that 160,000 jobs were created in April. That's quite a bit more than the ADP report showed us the day before (117,000). and looks pretty suspect when you also factor in the Challenger Job Cuts that printed yesterday and showed an 11% gain year-on-year for April in job cuts.

The markets have recently kind of gone back to the old way of valuing the dollar with outcome of the Jobs Jamboree, which would mean 160,000 jobs created is not that good. Sure, it's better than the 120,000 jobs that allegedly created in March.. But, at this rate, jobs aren't even keeping up with the population.. Remember, I told you long ago, that about 250,000 jobs need to be created on a monthly basis to fuel a recovering economy. 160,000 is not 250,000.

But, the markets will get lathered up a bit, should the report print around 160,000, and the knuckleheads that see it as good, will mark up the dollar. the calmer heads that see if for what it is, will not mark up the dollar. So, at the end of the day, we'll see who won.

Basically, I see it like this. we all know the BLS "adjusts" the numbers to look better than they are.. but take the BLS number as it is, for that's what the markets do, and look at it this morning with this in mind. a strong number for April would wipe out the negativity that surrounded the March weak number of 120,000 and prove that it was only a bump in the road, thus removing thoughts about QE3. But. if the number is weak, making two consecutive months of weak reports, the calls for QE3 will be deafening. and that would be dollar negative, and Gold positive.

Of course if the number of jobs created per the BLS is strong, that would be dollar positive.

The euro is also being held hostage this morning, as Europe heads into the weekend with two major elections to take place. France will choose a new President, probably Hollande, who is not Sarkozy, and not a fan of the great plan for the Eurozone. Greece will vote in a new Government . then in minor elections, both Germany and Italy will have regional elections.

Everyone knows what to expect from Hollande, so his win, while not good for the euro, won't hurt it too much, as a Hollande victory has already been priced into the euro. The Greece government election is a real wild card, and is putting the most pressure on the euro this morning. My thought is that this will turn out to be a tempest in a teapot.

Well. the fun just keeps coming for the Aussie dollar (A$). NOT! First the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a powerful blow to the mid-section of the A$, by cutting rates 50 basis points, when 25 basis points were expected, and now the RBA has moved up the A$'s body, and is slapping it in the face. The RBA lowered its growth forecasts across the forecast horizon, which is Central Bank parlance for: As far as we can see, economic growth will be weaker.

So. make a notation right here, right now, that the RBA is going to cut rates another 50 Basis points (1/2%) later this year.

Gold is selling off again. this morning the shiny metal is down $5. I did an interview with Dow Jones yesterday and I talked a lot about Gold, and how I truly believe that the push down that we've seen in the price of Gold has been Gov't orchestrated, going back to the Wikileaks cable I told you about. The U.S. can't have everyone replacing dollars with Gold. it's that simple, folks.. and one day, sons and daughters, will find out the truth. and you'll be able to tell your grandkids that you knew the guy that first talked about that.

And the price of Oil might have slipped some this week, it hasn't stopped Norway from posting some very impressive profit numbers this year. Norway, the world's 7th largest oil exporter, will probably raise its oil-price estimate by 13% when it publishes its budget on May 15th.

And I promised you that I would get back to the price of Oil and here it is. Now, let me set this up. twice this week I talked about the call that was made at the Casey Conference for $40 Oil in the next year. And while I believe as a country we should be able to achieve that, I believed that the Gov't, the EPA, and other things would be stumbling blocks.

I saw this last night in the Wall Street Journal. "the administration will soon issue new environmental-safety rules hydraulic fracturing on federal land, setting a new standard that natural-gas wells on all lands eventually could follow.

The rules, which are likely to be unveiled by the Interior Department within days, are designed to address concerns that the method of extracting natural gas known as "fracking" can contaminate groundwater. Among other things, they create new guidelines for constructing wells and treating waste water, according to a draft of the proposed rules reviewed by The Wall Street Journal."

Chuck again. so, see, the Gov't's hand is already entering the Oil cookie jar.

Then There Was This. From the Daily Reckoning. my friend, the one and only, Bill Bonner.

In Europe, the following countries are now in recession:

Slovenia

Italy

Czech Republic

Ireland

Greece

Denmark

Portugal

Netherlands

Belgium

UK

Spain

In America, the last reported GDP results were positive. But take out inventory build-ups and the growth rate was only 1.6%. Not very exciting. Almost every report in the financial press said the results were "disappointing." But why would they be disappointed? Don't they know we're in a Great Correction? They're lucky there was any growth at all. And if you took out all the stimulus spending, ZIRP, LTRO, TARP, QEI, QEII, Operation Twist, and all the increases in disability...and other transfer payments...

..what do you have?

Most likely, you'd be in the same situation as the UK, Spain and all the other recessed

Economies.- Bill Bonner

Chuck again. no one can say it like Bill does.

To recap. it's a Jobs Jamboree Friday, and the currencies' near term direction could very well come from the outcome of the Jobs data. the currencies this morning remain in a rut, with a weak bias to buy dollars. The euro is being held hostage by elections that will take place this weekend in the Eurozone, and Gold continues to be pushed down, but by whom?

Currencies today 5/4/12. American Style: A$ $1.0245, kiwi .7985, C$ $1.0120, euro 1.3130, sterling 1.6170, Swiss $1.0930, . European Style: rand 7.7380, krone 5.7590, SEK 6.7775, forint 217.05, zloty 3.1850, koruna 19.0425, RUB 29.57, yen 80.25, sing 1.2415, HKD 7.7615, INR 53.47, China 6.3059, pesos 12.99, BRL 1.9065, Dollar Index 79.29, Oil $101.27, 10-year 1.93%, Silver $29.95, and Gold $1,632.65. and with it being a Friday. here's the U.S. debt clock for you to take a peek at. http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html

That's it for today. don't know what I ate that tipped my stomach upside down, but something did! UGH! I hate not getting enough sleep! Whatever it is, it needs to go away quickly, because I will be speaking to a crowd this afternoon at the KCI Conference in Palm Beach. I will talk about what is Evident, may not be imminent. Bend me, Shape me by the American Breed is playing, that's putting me in a better mood! I get back home Sunday night, and will use Monday to recharge, hopefully Mike or Chris will offer to pick up the conn on the Pfennig Monday.

So. did you see that EverBank went public yesterday? Pretty impressive EverBank banner that hung on the outside of the NYSE yesterday. The "Big Guys" got to ring the opening bell at the NYSE yesterday. Nothing changes for me, folks. I'll still be here, writing the Pfennig, and managing the risk for the bank on our currency products. and with that. I'll get this going out the door. I hope you have a Fantastico Friday!

Chuck Butler

President

EverBank World Markets

1-800-926-4922

1-314-647-3837





Posted 05-04-2012 10:51 AM by Chuck Butler