A Jobs Jamboree Friday!
Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications


.........But First, A Word From Our Sponsor..........

Announcing EverBank Wealth Management, Inc.

It's another great day for the EverBank family of services. We're delighted to announce the launch of a new wealth management company offering global investment advice through a personalized approach.

Led by you. Guided by experience.(sm)

EverBank Wealth Management brings together a team highly experienced in the global marketplace that will listen, evaluate and then advise you to create a plan to meet your goals. Our team uniquely understands how you view the marketplace. We offer comprehensive and unbiased institutional grade investment advice based on what you have and what you want to accomplish.

It all starts with a conversation...877-613-EVER (3837)


EverBank Wealth Management is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. It is not a bank. Investment solutions offered through EverBank Wealth Management are: NOT FDIC INSURED | NOT BANK GUARANTEED | MAY LOSE VALUE.


In This Issue.

* Risk assets trade in a tight range.

* The games people play now.

* SNB credibility up for sale.

* Richard Russell on Good Friday!

And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts!

A Jobs Jamboree Friday!

Good day. And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's Good Friday for those of us that observe it that way. Good Friday, for the markets means that the stock jockeys have headed to the Hamptons already, and the bond boys & girls will close up shop early today, so they can get a head start on getting out of town too.

All this means is that the markets will be thin today, which could very well cause some wild swings, so be prepared for that should that occur.

And the wild swings could begin right out of the starters blocks this morning when the April Jobs Jamboree prints at 7:30 CT. So, let's talk about the Jobs Jamboree before we get into the currencies, and metals. (they were boring yesterday. ) Right now, the "experts" have forecast a net positive job creation number for March of 205,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 8.3%... according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Long time readers know my dislike for the BLS, because of their "adjustments" that they come up with. Their numbers are useless to me, but. the markets get all lathered up over them, and I deal with the markets, so. I have to address them. UGH!

I've always contended that the way the BLS reports job creation is dumb. They don't tell you what kind of jobs were added. So, you could have a strong number on the jobs report but the majority of the jobs were min. wage, not that there's anything wrong with that, but for an economy to grow that doesn't help. That's why I've always looked at the Average Hourly Earnings and Average Weekly Hours Worked number in the Jobs Jamboree, for signs of inflation.

But to play along with the silly people that think the BLS numbers are good. I'll say that the BLS will report more jobs created than the 205,000 forecast. But, at some point, here the jobs market is going to overheat. and we'll begin to see these monthly numbers weaken. But that's just my opinion, and I could be wrong.

The games people play now. Every night and every day now. you tell them Joe South!

But for today, especially given the markets being thin, a stronger than expected jobs data number could push the dollar higher, and if it hits any technical levels, the wild swings could begin.

OK. the currencies traded in a very tight range yesterday, with the euro able to hold its head above the water line at 1.30. The Aussie dollar (A$) recovered a bit back to $1.03, but all-in-all, it was a boring day. Gold & Silver tried to mount gains and did for the most part, but they were small in comparison to the size of the drops we've seen in the two metals lately.

I would think that the drop in the price of Gold has been overdone. but that all depends on what the U.S. Gov't thinks about the whole market. I say that in reference to the Wikileaks article that I told you about a couple of times in the past. Remember? The memo basically said that the U.S. Gov't manipulated the price of Gold, because they didn't want people selling their dollars for Gold, and thus killing the need for dollars. Hey! I didn't make that stuff up. it didn't come from Chuck's closet of conspiracy stories. it was right there in the Wikileaks.

OK.. Moving on. these are not the droids we're looking for.

Inch by inch, step by step, the Swiss franc closes in on the 1.20 "floor" that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) put in place for the euro/ franc cross. And in today's thinned out markets, a full-on breach could be in the cards. And the SNB will have to react, or else, have their credibility questioned. And if the markets smell blood. they will go after the SNB's policy and leave it in shreds.

Which means that if the SNB does react by selling francs and buying euros, the franc will lose ground VS the dollar. But IF the SNB sits on its hands, and the markets have their way, the franc will rise VS the dollar. And then the final thing is that nothing happens today, and we go into the Easter weekend without any movement. I can tell you that I'm sure the SNB is hoping for what's behind door #3.

I know between all the dying of eggs and getting your Peeps stale, that you'll want to check to see if China did anything this weekend. The Chinese like to announce things on Weekends, and this would be a great weekend to announce something that the Chinese would like to fly under the radar. That something? Ahhh grasshopper. I'm looking for China to announce a reserve requirement reduction, which as I've told you before is just like a rate cut.

Monday is also a holiday for some countries. Easter Monday. I've always wondered why we didn't celebrate that as a holiday here in the U.S.

I see where the chief architect of the Twist & Shout, I mean Operation Twist, is going to resign his position as the head of the N.Y. Fed. Brian Sack has resigned. I tell you this, because about a month ago, I dear reader sent me a very long list of the Central Bank heads, the heads of major banks around the world, and finance ministers that have resigned or been fired in the past year. the number is quite large. and I just can't help but think that this could be akin to getting out of Dodge. Or getting out while the getting is good. Or any other phrase that fits here.

OK. pushing the envelope there I do believe, but what the heck you only live once!

I really got a late start today, so with the currencies in a tight range, and nothing new to talk about there, and with the Jobs Jamboree dominating things this morning, I will end the Pfennig quickly today. So, let's all head to the Big Finish!

Then There Was This. First, long time readers of the Pfennig know just how much I admire the great Richard Russell, the author and "grandfather of market letters" of Dow Theory. So, Richard Russell was speaking yesterday. and had this to say. "My guess is that this is the big money that has been holding off as long as it decently can, and then dumping their goods just before the close. I don't think that big money likes this market, and I think they have been slowly exiting this market, as quietly as they can." He went on to say that, "The big money tends to look out six months to a year or so, and there is something out there that they see, and don't like. Is it a rise interest rates, is it the power of the Chinese yuan, is it a further collapse in real estate values? Honestly I don't know what it is, but I'm convinced that there is an ominous something out there waiting to materialize. The big money, the institutional money, doesn't want to be in this market when it materializes."

Chuck again. big money is shorthand for "savvy investors". and doesn't this play nicely with my call that we are in the eye of the storm right now, and when we head to the other side of the storm things are going to get scary? You bet it does! Thanks to Richard Russell for his thoughts this morning.

To recap. It's a Jobs Jamboree this morning, and it's Good Friday, which means the markets will be thinned out, and could cause some wild swings. The currencies and metals traded in a tight range yesterday, with the euro able to keep its head above the 1.30 level. And the SNB is hoping for a quiet Easter Weekend.

Currencies today 4/6/12. American Style: A$ $1.0326, kiwi .8185, C$ $1.0080, euro 1.3075, sterling 1.5865, Swiss $1.0880, . European Style: rand 7.8345, krone 5.7810, SEK 6.7435, forint 225.80, zloty 3.1760, koruna 18.8325, RUB 29.48, yen 82.35, sing 1.2590, HKD 7.7655, INR 51.11, China 6.3052, pesos 12.87, BRL 1.8215, Dollar Index 80.02, Oil $103.31, 10-year 2.19%, Silver $32, and Gold. $1,632.75

That's it for today. My beautiful bride's family was at the house last night to have their annual Easter Egg dying extravaganza, which meant I had to leave! So, down the street I went to the local watering hole, and met up with some friends. Cards and Brewers this afternoon. Yesterday I told you to Google the KCI or Casey Conferences that invited me to speak, if you were interested. Apparently, you need to Google Personal Finance to find the KCI conference. sorry. And with that. I need to get going, I'm fully involved in the new system now, and right now, it sure is not as fluid as the old system. but I'm an old dog, and you know what they say about old dogs. and with that. I hope you have a Fantastico Friday! and if you celebrate Easter. I sure hope it is a wonderful end to the Holy Week!

Chuck Butler


EverBank World Markets



Posted 04-06-2012 12:37 PM by Chuck Butler