June 2010 - Daily Pfennig

A free, quick-reading daily e-letter on world currencies, economic trends, and the occasional baseball score.

Daily Pfennig

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Have You Seen This?

  • A Risk On Day...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro rallies on ECB lending amount...
    * Gold and Silver back on rally tracks...
    * Waiting on the Riksbank...
    * U.N. wants a global currency...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... We get a two day break in the World Cup, with only 8 teams left. Too bad, the U.S. team isn't one of the 'great 8'! But that's what happens when you play the games, eh?

    The games people play now... Every night and every day now... Never meaning what they say now... Never saying what they mean...

    Yes, Joe South had it completely correct back in the 60's... I was watching a video of an interview with the famous, Jim Rogers, last night. And Jim was talking about the reason why Fed Chairman Big Ben Bernanke fought the 'audit the Fed' bill... And Jim said that Big Ben fought it because, he and the Fed Heads (my description), have spent trillions of dollars on complete junk paper, and he didn't want us (the taxpayers) to know what he had done. Ahhh... The games people play now......
  • Questioning China... Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion takes over...
    * Gold fails to reach all-time high...
    * Debasing is good?
    * Treasury yields plummet!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it looks like the hurricane in the Gulf will veer left, and avoid the 'spill area'... So, those guys working in the Gulf finally catch a break! The bias to sell dollars didn't last too long yesterday, about as long as it takes for an Albert Pujols home run to leave the park! This back and forth stuff is really beginning to give me a rash, folks...

    Yesterday, the selling of the currencies and metals began with Gold... The shiny metal had climbed to just above $1,260, but could not go further, and apparently, traders threw in the towel because Gold couldn't go past its all-time high of $1,266... Gold began to sell off and in the blink of an eye, it went from being up $8, to being down $14! OUCH!...
  • G-20, Schmee 20!

    In This Issue..

    * No clear direction from G-20...
    * A bias to sell dollars this morning...
    * Those guys are wrong, and I'm right!
    * Riksbank to hike rates this week?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend that feels like it went by in a flash! WOW! Don't know how that happened, but it did... This coming weekend will be a 3-day Holiday weekend, so hopefully that 'went by in a flash' feeling doesn't repeat itself!

    Well... This past weekend was the G-20 meeting, and the anticipated brawl between the U.S. and Germany on spending VS cost cutting... Well, the brawl didn't happen, instead they agreed to say that they will 'tackle deficits once economic recoveries are assured'... Which here in the U.S. means... NEVER! Not that the economic recovery won't eventually come along, but that our lawmakers aren't going to stop spending... However, there are elections that might just change their minds, eh?

    ...
  • ‘For Much Longer’...

    In This Issue..

    * Aussie PM resigns!
    * Aussie mining tax is dead!
    * New Home Sales plummet 33%!
    * Fed is not so "cocky" any longer...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because of some good, no great news from Australia overnight! It certainly isn't because of the Housing data that printed yesterday! And the Fed isn't so 'cocky' about the economy suddenly... Hmmm... These things and more, as we explore our Tub Thumpin' Thursday, so let's go!

    Front and Center this morning, Julia Gillard became Australia's first female prime minister after Kevin Rudd stepped aside as leader of the governing Labor Party, paving the way for the government to drop a controversial new 40% levy on mining profits that has damaged its standing in voter polls.

    ...
  • FOMC Day – 06/23/2010...

    In This Issue..

    * A tight trading range day...
    * High yielders underperform...
    * Franc at all-time high VS euro...
    * Gold gets back on rally tracks...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! It's also a BIG DAY for the U.S. Men's soccer team... Yes, I know they call it football in all corners of the world but here... Our Soccer legend, Ty Keough, calls the U.S. version of football, 'the gridiron'! Any way, it's a Big Day for the Men's team... Win and they are assured of moving on.

    Yesterday, after the currencies had sold off in the overnight sessions, they traded throughout the U.S. session in a tight range, with a bias to move higher, but not being able to mount any kind of sustained move against the dollar....
  • Re-Thinking China...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets sell off...
    * Is China trying to appease G-20?
    * Aussie commodity profits skyrocket!
    * Gold sells off by $22...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Are you full? You know appetite wise... Probably not, for most of you read the Pfennig in the morning, with a cup o' Joe... The renewed appetite for Risk that the markets were displaying yesterday disappeared yesterday afternoon... The markets were full of risk, I guess... For the selling was swift, and damaging to the levels the currencies, commodities, and stocks had gained overnight on the news that China would allow more flexibility in the renminbi...

    See how fickle these markets / traders are? Very! You had a day that everyone was looking forward to, China allowing the renminbi to gain VS the dollar again, and just threw it to the roadside... UGH!

    ...
  • Flexibility Is The Word Of The Day!

    In This Issue..

    * A Big Currency rally!
    * Renminbi to become flexible...
    * Unintended consequences...
    * Gold flies past line of resistance!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was Father's Day yesterday, I had a grand time, I hope you did too! It was extremely hot here, but shoot Rudy, it's summer... It's supposed to be hot!

    Well things heated up in the currencies this weekend... Yes, while everyone was wiping the milk from their mouths from their cereal they ate for breakfast on Saturday morning, the Chinese made a BIG announcement... Rather than tell you in my own words... Here is the official statement from the People's Bank of China (PBOC)......
  • Big Al Talks Deficit Financing...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies hold gained ground VS dollar...
    * Swiss franc really shines!
    * Japan borrows a line from the U.S....
    * The Labor problem grows...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, especially if you are a Los Angeles Lakers fan! Me? I've always been a fan of the Celtics, but since it's a long distance directory assistance relationship, it's not that big of a deal to me that they lost. When I was a kid, the Hawks were in St. Louis, and we won a championship, with Bob Pettit... OK, I was only 3... But my dad loved to talk about it!

    Well... We've had a day where the currencies gained VS the dollar, and then held their ground, for the most part... No profit taking, no debt crisis fears trading, just held their ground VS the dollar... Now, some would say... 'that's a sign that they've hit resistance and can't overtake it, which is not good for a rising asset'... But, me? Well, I would say, and will say... 'I find this to be refreshing. The last thing you want to see is an asset, which in this case is a currency like the euro, run up too much, too fast, for that WILL give the markets reason to sell. I prefer the slow gradual, stealth-like moves in currencies, so that they don't gain any attention, until the rally is well established.'

    ...
  • The Big Dog Gets Off The Porch!

    In This Issue..

    * Good Spanish auction fuels a euro rally...
    * SNB leaves out important words...
    * Deflation disappears in Switzerland...
    * U.S. Housing Starts drop -10%!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I was reading my friend David Galland's letter the other day, and learned that he, like me, was dealing with his wife being gone for the week... I think I have an advantage on him though, as he has little ones at home... My little buddy Alex, has been hanging out with his older brother, Andrew, so I've been... All by myself... (what a great song by Nilsson)

    OK... Yesterday, I told you how the currency rally had the brakes applied by a return to the European Debt Crisis focus... Yesterday's trading was different though. It was, as if, traders never heard that the U.S. and the IMF were putting together a line of credit for Spain, for they began marking up the euro, and selling dollars, as if it June of 2009! (you may recall that in June, last year, the dollar was on the slippery slope once again)...
  • A Return To Debit Crisis Trading...

    In This Issue..

    * Strong euro rally fizzles out overnight...
    * Russia to add C$ and A$'s?
    * IMF sides with U.S. on Chinese currency policy...
    * Aussie housing starts are strong...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday... Man! Did we have some torrential downpours yesterday! The creek that my yard backs to was 'a risen'! I can't imagine all the rainouts of ballgames this spring... It's one of the things that drove me crazy, when I was a baseball manager...

    OK... The rain was coming down hard on the dollar yesterday too... But, this morning, when I turn on the screens, it looks like that dollar selling that went on all day yesterday, has had the brakes applied. I would say slammed on, but it all happened while I was sleeping, so I don't really know for sure!...
  • German ZEW Investor Confidence Plummets!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies move back and forth...
    * A HUGE hickey for us from Fannie and Freddie...
    * The Chinese respond to Geithner...
    * Canada GDP to reach pre-recession levels?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, day one of me basically by myself this week is put in the books... A non-event... A dentist appointment was all the excitement I had last night!

    Well... That risk assets rally that we were watching yesterday morning, ran into a speed bump around noon... Yes, the euro was nearing 1.23, Aussie was looking as though it would touch 87-cents, and so on... But then along came Moodys... Talk about bad timing! Ok... Let me set this up for you...

    ...
  • Jim Rogers In The News...

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally overnight...
    * U.S. Retail Sales drop -1.2%!
    * The Chinese respond to Geithner...
    * History to repeat?...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! WOW! What a great weekend enjoyed by yours truly... Lots of friends, to share good times with! The weather tried to ruin everything, but we didn't let it! I'll begin this week's Pfennigs with a little story that happened this morning...

    I arrived in the parking garage across the street from our building, not exactly the best situation for someone that's partially crippled and has a blood clot in their leg, but that's a story for another day. I got out of my car, and said, 'Hmmm... Wouldn't it be nice to see the euro trading with a 1.22 handle this morning?' Then said, 'Nah, it didn't look too good on Friday.'......
  • Brazil Hikes Rates Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally holds on to gains...
    * Rate hikes begin to add up...
    * Trade & Budget Deficit monsters...
    * Canada posts a trade surplus!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Let's go on record right out of the starters' blocks this morning, and say this will be a Fantastico Friday, eh?

    Well... What a rally in the risk assets yesterday! And for once, when the rally fizzled out yesterday afternoon, profits weren't taken in the overnight markets... Instead we saw a consolidation, if you will, of the price gains on Thursday in the overnight markets. That's nice to see, eh? For it had been the pattern of recent times to just sell off any gains, and end up back on square one, or even lower than the starting level. So, like I said, this was very nice to see... I checked the levels last night before I went to bed, and noticed that there had not been any sell off, and thought, what a great Friday it would be tomorrow, if these can hold throughout the night... And they did!...
  • A Vote Of Confidence!

    In This Issue..

    * China boosts euros...
    * Chinese exports soar!
    * RBNZ hikes rates!
    * Bernanke on the "hill"!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well, we have a new Stanley Cup Champion, and plenty more to talk about today! The Mid-West has been in one of those weather patterns that sees the day heat up, then produce violent storms, and then clears up... Sometimes it seems as though this lasts forever!

    OK... Well, Front and Center this morning, the euro is pushing higher on some words from Asia... Seems that China is very much behind the euro, and made statements related to that thought, which really put some starch in the euro's shorts overnight. The thing I worry about right now, is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting that's going on as I type my fat fingers to the bone... The ECB could crush this mini-rally in the euro in a heartbeat by saying the 'wrong thing' at their press conference that will be held after the ECB announces that rates will remain unchanged.

    ...
  • Waiting On The RBNZ...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * Fed to keep rates unchanged till 2011?
    * Brazil GDP soars 9%!
    * Another glut of Treasuries to auction...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had a first today on the way to work... I hit every green light! Now... I'm sure you are wondering why I would even have green lights at this hour of the morning... Me too! But they are there! And it was smooth sailing into work today... YAHOO!

    OK... Let's get serious, serious... The currencies traded in a tight range yesterday, with a brief mini-rally in euros, as the single unit rallied to 1.20, but that was short-lived. The rumor going around was that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was intervening...

    ...

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