June 2010 - Daily Pfennig

A free, quick-reading daily e-letter on world currencies, economic trends, and the occasional baseball score.

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • Risk Aversion Is Back!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro bashing is back!
    * Canadian GDP jumps to 6.1%!
    * RBA keeps rates unchanged
    * 7-U.S. cities have 'junk debt'...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And welcome to June! As Pfennig tradition would have it... June is busting out all over, all over the meadows and the hill! Buds're bustin' outta bushes, And the rompin' river pushes, Ev'ry little wheel that wheels beside the mill! And you thought I was just a 'rock-n-roller!'

    Well... Yesterday while we were honoring the fallen soldiers of today and yesteryear, the Europeans were knocking the stuffing out of the euro once again... This time, it was a story that spread like wildfire regarding the Eurozone economy not being able to have strong growth, because of all their austerity measures... Now... Come on boys! First you slam the euro's fingers in the door (OUCH!) for not cutting deficit spending in a few countries, and when they do show a willingness to cut deficit spending, you the ruler out and smack the euro right across the wrist!

    ...
  • Bank of Canada Is First in G-7 To Hike Rates!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro's rally fizzles out...
    * Rates hikes are not over in Australia!
    * Japanese PM quits!
    * Brits offer advice to Greece.

    OK... Yesterday, I told you that the Bank of Canada (BOC) would meet today, and raise rates... Well, I got that 1/2 right! UGH! The BOC did raise rates, but they did it yesterday! Yes, the BOC became the first Central Bank in G-7 to raise rates, 1 1/2 years after the financial meltdown. The BOC tried to play down the move, by saying that they were not entering a rate hike cycle that would yield rate hikes meeting after meeting... But, with GDP, as reported here yesterday, running at 6.1% annualized, there are more rate hikes to come... It just won't be meeting after meeting... The BOC will sprinkle the fairy dust here, and a little there, some for themselves, and a little for us... A little more for them... HA!...
  • Let's Talk Deficits...

    In This Issue..

    * A$, kiwi, and C$'s outperform...
    * Yen gets what is deserved!
    * Deficit to reach 100% of GDP?
    * Don't they work for us?

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It has been Thunderin' here most of the night, so it was quite fitting to call our Thursday, Thunderin'! It's been a week of pop-up Thunder Showers for us here in the Midwest... If summer plays out the way most summers play out, we'll be pining for rain come August!

    The Japanese have a new Prime Minister (Kan), and the currency markets don't like it! The once so-called 'safe haven' of yen, is getting sand kicked in its face, and rightly so, as the new PM has previously stated his goal of a weaker yen...

    ...
  • A Jobs Jamboree Friday – 6/4/2010

    In This Issue..

    * Euro gets beaten down again...
    * Why should we do anything now?
    * Brazil keeping inflation away...
    * ADP says 55,000 jobs created in May...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I suspect this will end up being a Fantastico Friday, but right now, not so much... Today is the Big Jobs Jamboree, and the cable news stations are spinning it quite nicely. So nicely put that stock jockeys are believing the spin and running stock futures higher. I've got that to talk about today, and more debt stuff... Believe me dear reader, I wish I didn't have to talk about this debt stuff, but I feel as though me and a few of my friends are the only ones doing so, and I don't want you to become like the rest of the country and become 'comfortably numb' with the deficit figures!...
  • Jobs Disappoint Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro falls below 1.20...
    * Did we have negative "real" job creation?
    * Canada's labor market is strong...
    * G-20 yields nothing...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was a wonderful jam-packed weekend for yours truly, and when the alarm went off this morning, I had a greater appreciation for 3-day weekends!

    Well... Friday, when I was signing off, I said that suddenly the currencies were getting sold... At that time, it looked as if it might be short-lived... But NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! This was an all-out assault on risk, folks... At when the dust settled in the early afternoon, the euro had fallen below 1.20, for the first time since 2005, and everything other currency was getting whacked too... For the first time all week though, Gold rallied......
  • A New All-Time High For Gold!

    In This Issue..

    * Deflation to deep six Gold?
    * German data points to recovery...
    * The U.S. sponsored Ponzi Scheme...
    * ECOFIN internalizes their debt problems...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I hit the "wall" yesterday about 2 o'clock... All the fun and sun of the weekend, became the wall, and I hit it square on! But I'm well rested now, so here we go!

    Front and Center this morning... Gold has reached a new all-time high this morning. Yesterday I kept watching the shiny metal tick higher and higher, and I would yell out across the desk each rise in Gold... Gold was $1,250 when I turned on the screens this morning. It has given back $2 since, as I did some reading and research, but Shoot Rudy, the move yesterday was something to admire!...
  • Waiting On The RBNZ...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * Fed to keep rates unchanged till 2011?
    * Brazil GDP soars 9%!
    * Another glut of Treasuries to auction...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had a first today on the way to work... I hit every green light! Now... I'm sure you are wondering why I would even have green lights at this hour of the morning... Me too! But they are there! And it was smooth sailing into work today... YAHOO!

    OK... Let's get serious, serious... The currencies traded in a tight range yesterday, with a brief mini-rally in euros, as the single unit rallied to 1.20, but that was short-lived. The rumor going around was that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was intervening...

    ...
  • A Vote Of Confidence!

    In This Issue..

    * China boosts euros...
    * Chinese exports soar!
    * RBNZ hikes rates!
    * Bernanke on the "hill"!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well, we have a new Stanley Cup Champion, and plenty more to talk about today! The Mid-West has been in one of those weather patterns that sees the day heat up, then produce violent storms, and then clears up... Sometimes it seems as though this lasts forever!

    OK... Well, Front and Center this morning, the euro is pushing higher on some words from Asia... Seems that China is very much behind the euro, and made statements related to that thought, which really put some starch in the euro's shorts overnight. The thing I worry about right now, is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting that's going on as I type my fat fingers to the bone... The ECB could crush this mini-rally in the euro in a heartbeat by saying the 'wrong thing' at their press conference that will be held after the ECB announces that rates will remain unchanged.

    ...
  • Brazil Hikes Rates Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally holds on to gains...
    * Rate hikes begin to add up...
    * Trade & Budget Deficit monsters...
    * Canada posts a trade surplus!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Let's go on record right out of the starters' blocks this morning, and say this will be a Fantastico Friday, eh?

    Well... What a rally in the risk assets yesterday! And for once, when the rally fizzled out yesterday afternoon, profits weren't taken in the overnight markets... Instead we saw a consolidation, if you will, of the price gains on Thursday in the overnight markets. That's nice to see, eh? For it had been the pattern of recent times to just sell off any gains, and end up back on square one, or even lower than the starting level. So, like I said, this was very nice to see... I checked the levels last night before I went to bed, and noticed that there had not been any sell off, and thought, what a great Friday it would be tomorrow, if these can hold throughout the night... And they did!...
  • Jim Rogers In The News...

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally overnight...
    * U.S. Retail Sales drop -1.2%!
    * The Chinese respond to Geithner...
    * History to repeat?...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! WOW! What a great weekend enjoyed by yours truly... Lots of friends, to share good times with! The weather tried to ruin everything, but we didn't let it! I'll begin this week's Pfennigs with a little story that happened this morning...

    I arrived in the parking garage across the street from our building, not exactly the best situation for someone that's partially crippled and has a blood clot in their leg, but that's a story for another day. I got out of my car, and said, 'Hmmm... Wouldn't it be nice to see the euro trading with a 1.22 handle this morning?' Then said, 'Nah, it didn't look too good on Friday.'......
  • German ZEW Investor Confidence Plummets!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies move back and forth...
    * A HUGE hickey for us from Fannie and Freddie...
    * The Chinese respond to Geithner...
    * Canada GDP to reach pre-recession levels?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, day one of me basically by myself this week is put in the books... A non-event... A dentist appointment was all the excitement I had last night!

    Well... That risk assets rally that we were watching yesterday morning, ran into a speed bump around noon... Yes, the euro was nearing 1.23, Aussie was looking as though it would touch 87-cents, and so on... But then along came Moodys... Talk about bad timing! Ok... Let me set this up for you...

    ...
  • A Return To Debit Crisis Trading...

    In This Issue..

    * Strong euro rally fizzles out overnight...
    * Russia to add C$ and A$'s?
    * IMF sides with U.S. on Chinese currency policy...
    * Aussie housing starts are strong...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday... Man! Did we have some torrential downpours yesterday! The creek that my yard backs to was 'a risen'! I can't imagine all the rainouts of ballgames this spring... It's one of the things that drove me crazy, when I was a baseball manager...

    OK... The rain was coming down hard on the dollar yesterday too... But, this morning, when I turn on the screens, it looks like that dollar selling that went on all day yesterday, has had the brakes applied. I would say slammed on, but it all happened while I was sleeping, so I don't really know for sure!...
  • The Big Dog Gets Off The Porch!

    In This Issue..

    * Good Spanish auction fuels a euro rally...
    * SNB leaves out important words...
    * Deflation disappears in Switzerland...
    * U.S. Housing Starts drop -10%!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I was reading my friend David Galland's letter the other day, and learned that he, like me, was dealing with his wife being gone for the week... I think I have an advantage on him though, as he has little ones at home... My little buddy Alex, has been hanging out with his older brother, Andrew, so I've been... All by myself... (what a great song by Nilsson)

    OK... Yesterday, I told you how the currency rally had the brakes applied by a return to the European Debt Crisis focus... Yesterday's trading was different though. It was, as if, traders never heard that the U.S. and the IMF were putting together a line of credit for Spain, for they began marking up the euro, and selling dollars, as if it June of 2009! (you may recall that in June, last year, the dollar was on the slippery slope once again)...
  • Big Al Talks Deficit Financing...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies hold gained ground VS dollar...
    * Swiss franc really shines!
    * Japan borrows a line from the U.S....
    * The Labor problem grows...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, especially if you are a Los Angeles Lakers fan! Me? I've always been a fan of the Celtics, but since it's a long distance directory assistance relationship, it's not that big of a deal to me that they lost. When I was a kid, the Hawks were in St. Louis, and we won a championship, with Bob Pettit... OK, I was only 3... But my dad loved to talk about it!

    Well... We've had a day where the currencies gained VS the dollar, and then held their ground, for the most part... No profit taking, no debt crisis fears trading, just held their ground VS the dollar... Now, some would say... 'that's a sign that they've hit resistance and can't overtake it, which is not good for a rising asset'... But, me? Well, I would say, and will say... 'I find this to be refreshing. The last thing you want to see is an asset, which in this case is a currency like the euro, run up too much, too fast, for that WILL give the markets reason to sell. I prefer the slow gradual, stealth-like moves in currencies, so that they don't gain any attention, until the rally is well established.'

    ...
  • Flexibility Is The Word Of The Day!

    In This Issue..

    * A Big Currency rally!
    * Renminbi to become flexible...
    * Unintended consequences...
    * Gold flies past line of resistance!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was Father's Day yesterday, I had a grand time, I hope you did too! It was extremely hot here, but shoot Rudy, it's summer... It's supposed to be hot!

    Well things heated up in the currencies this weekend... Yes, while everyone was wiping the milk from their mouths from their cereal they ate for breakfast on Saturday morning, the Chinese made a BIG announcement... Rather than tell you in my own words... Here is the official statement from the People's Bank of China (PBOC)......

1 2 Next >