Weekly Job Losses Continue To Pile Up!
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In This Issue..

* Back to the "safe haven" trades...                                          
* The dollar hammers the euro!                                         
* It's a Jobs Jamboree Friday!                                               
* The SNB sells francs...                                                                                                           

And Now... Today's Pfennig!

Weekly Job Losses Continue To Pile Up!                                            

Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's a draggin' the line Friday for me, but I'll make every attempt to turn it into a Fantastico Friday for sure! The Big Stock Sell off that I've warned about since probably June of last year, looks like it has finally arrived... Bringing with it, my biggest fears, that the link between all the risk assets, had not been broken completely, and this link has turned into a bloodletting on currencies and commodities...

OK... So I got that out of the way, front and center this morning! You know... Ever since I began writing about a Big stock sell off, I told you that, should the link remain in place, and the currencies and commodities have adverse reactions, then we would come to the fork in the road... The people that bought currencies and commodities to keep up with their neighbors, in hopes of being able to brag about their returns at the next bar-b-que, will panic and sell, making the sell off even worse... The people that bought these risk assets for the "right reason", which was to diversify their investment portfolios, so that not all their investments were denominated in dollars, and to provide a hedge against further potential losses by the dollar, and to reduce their overall risk for their investment portfolio, will just batten down the hatches, hunker down, and ride this out... And... If any thing, look to pick up more of these risk assets at cheaper levels as we go along...

So... I was at the booth here at the Orlando Money Show, and a fellow walked up to me and said, "Gold is down $45, what do you have to say about that?" I said, "WOW!" sounds like a bad day a Red Rock for Gold, did you buy some at $45 cheaper than yesterday's price?" He was stunned that I came back like that... For he was simply trying to rub it in my face!

Well... What happened yesterday to cause this bloodletting in stocks, currencies and commodities? Well, it just so happens to be the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims that first scared the bejeebers out of the risk takers... The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims showed that layoffs, which every analyst (except me!) was thinking were getting better, were picking up in January, with last week's total at 480,000! This total got people/ investors thinking that the rose colored glasses they had been wearing toward the U.S. economy had to be stripped off of them!

Now... Fundamentally speaking... Had the currencies and commodities gotten back to fundamentals, and broken that chain that existed in the risk assets with stocks since collapse of Lehman Brothers, then yesterday's data would have deep sixed the dollar, and sent the currencies and commodities soaring higher... Instead we had this to deal with! Speaking of breaking that chain... Ever since I typed that this morning, I can't get that old Fleetwood Mac song out of my head... And if you don't love me know, you will never love me again, I can still hear you saying you will never break the chain... OK, there, I got that out of my system, and I can go onto the task at hand now!

Did you see where the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced yesterday that they would have to make a one-time adjustment to the labor statistics subtracting 824,000 jobs from the totals that they had added last year in error? You know, the ghost jobs that I had labeled them years ago... 824,000 jobs... I'm sure that announcement had a lot to do with the bloodletting yesterday also!

All this, and today, we'll see the color of the January Jobs Jamboree! (WOW! My English/ poetry teacher would be proud of me there!) Seriously though... The Jobs Jamboree will print this morning, and is expected to show more job losses to follow up last month's 85,000 job losses... Of course I showed you last month that the "somewhat real figure" was 144,000 job losses, but we won't let that get in the way of the BLS cooking the books!

I was talking to some wonderful, intelligent people last night about the Jobs Jamboree, and explained that the markets were always too dippy about the "number of jobs created", for those figures never told you if the jobs created were high paying jobs, or low paying jobs... How could you make a call for the economy without know that?

So... I always said that it mattered not the jobs created, but more the Average Hourly Earnings, and the Average Hours Worked... This is the data that the market participants should be really taking their direction from!

Enough on these job figures for crying out loud, Chuck! Can't you think of something else to write about? Why, yes, I do believe I can!

Well... It looks like the Swiss National Bank (SNB) took the weaker currency price for the Swiss franc, and decided to take a double barrel shot at the franc, buy selling it (intervening) overnight...

Shame, Shame on the SNB! Selling your own currency! I had just highlighted the franc as one of my fave currencies yesterday, only to read about this intervention by the SNB overnight! UGH! Well, I'm reminded of a saying that can be used here... I used to work with a guy in the brokerage house that I began my investment career, (Stifel Nicolaus) that would tell me all the time about a stock... "Hey, if you liked the stock at $50, you're going to love it at $45!"...

The debt problems of the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) took another chunk out of the euro overnight... Quite frankly, this is beginning to sound like a broken record... Look, Greece is but 2% of the European Union... What percent is California to the U.S.? Well, I don't really know, but what I do know is that California is the 8th largest economy in the world, so, it's percentage piece to the U.S. would be much higher than 2%!

European Central Bank President, Trichet, tried his best yesterday, to convince the markets that euro region should not be punished for Greece's debt problems... And in my opinion, he's right! But... The markets will do what the markets will do, no matter what central bankers say...

I'm really beginning to grow tired of this debt talk and the euro taking hits over and over again because of it...

Of course, as I told the crowd yesterday in my presentation... "yes, the dollar can rally, and will rally from time to time, think of it as circuit breakers, to keep the dollar from going into a tailspin on the slippery slope down."

OK... Enough on that too!

In Australia overnight... The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), who just the other day, surprised the markets and left their interest rates unchanged, made upward revisions to both GDP and CPI, and maintained that their internal interest rate, which will continue higher in 2010 to 5%...

Even this rosy picture, couldn't stop the selling... So... I have to think that this is all panic driven, and profit taking, and then more panic driven...

Then there was this... Yesterday, I saw that former Bank of America Chief, Ken Lewis was being sued by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo for defrauding investors and the government when buying Merrill Lynch... I think the gloves come off here folks... Under oath, I think Lewis will point to Paulson and Bernanke and say they made him do it, and then those two will have to answer questions under oath... Ahhh... We finally get to the cheese that binds here, eh?

To recap... The currencies and commodities have not broken the chain to stocks and are getting hammered as the BIG stock sell off that I've feared since June of last year, appears to be taking place, finally.. Increased jobs layoffs was the keymaster here, and we will get further info on the labor picture when the January Jobs Jamboree numbers get printed today...

Currencies today 2/5/10: American Style: A$ .8640, kiwi .69, C$ .9285, euro 1.3690, sterling 1.57, Swiss .9320, European Style: rand 7.7075, krone 6, SEK 7.4635, forint 200.40, zloty 2.9920, koruna 19.16, RUB 30.49, yen 89.40, sing 1.4225, HKD 7.7715, INR 46.56, China 6.8265, pesos 13.15, BRL 1.8845, dollar index 80.28, Oil $71.65, 10-year 3.58%, Silver $15.13, and Gold... $1,055.50

That's it for today... A very long day yesterday will be followed up by yet another long day today, but hey! That's what I came here to do! I think my presentation went well yesterday... The Big Boss, Frank Trotter, is speaking today, and then I finish up with a presentation tomorrow, that I've got to get working on today! I met two new faces to EverBank yesterday... First, Meg, in our marketing dept, and then Colleen that's with our new advertising agency... Colleen was full of energy toward the Pfennig, so, I've got that going for me, eh? Well... Sunday is Super Bowl Sunday! I think that the two best teams are in the game, which should provide us a good game... While I would like to see New Orleans win, I wouldn't ever bet against Peyton Manning, and it won't be a big deal to me should the Colts win... So... I don't have a dog in this hunt this year, which should make the viewing more enjoyable! Of course most people get all lathered up about the Super Bowl commercials.. I feel as though they've been a real let-down the past couple of years, so hopefully, that will change this year. So... Have fun on Sunday, and the best of luck to each team! Now, I'm still draggin' the line a bit, but I'm warming up to a Fantastico Friday, and hope you do too!

Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
1-800-926-4922
1-314-647-3837





Posted 02-05-2010 8:07 AM by Chuck Butler