October 2009 - Daily Pfennig

A free, quick-reading daily e-letter on world currencies, economic trends, and the occasional baseball score.

Daily Pfennig

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  • G-7 To Discuss Currencies?

    In This Issue..

    * The ball is in the dollar's court today...
    * Aussie is unable to hold 14-month high...
    * China and Eurozone print stronger PMI's
    * Chock-full-o-data today...

    Good day... Welcome to October! And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! No real reason to get Tub Thumpin', but I thought why not? The non-dollar currencies have given back their gains made yesterday to the dollar, in a game of what seems to be, give and take... A tennis match with the dollar, one day the ball is in the dollar's court, and the next day it's not! Really, kind of giving me a rash, watching this... I want some direction here!

    So... When I turned on all my screens this morning, and then waited about 20 minutes for the new programs to be installed on them that the IT people left for the next time the computer started up... Hmmm, where was I? Oh! I was talking about when I first saw the currencies this morning... I saw that the euro had fallen back to 1.4560... And of course wanted to find out why...

    ...
  • A Jobs Jamboree for Friday 10/02/2009!

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar remains well bid...
    * G-7 to hand currencies off to G-20?
    * Car Sales collapse...
    * Auditing the Lehman cash movements...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Yesterday, I welcomed you to October. I had been prepared to tell you about a famous radio station here in St. Louis, that has long called October... Rocktober... But forgot, as usual! But anyway... It's the first Fantastico Friday of Rocktober!

    Today is a Jobs Jamboree Friday too! And... I'm not getting a good feeling about today's labor report at the Jobs Jamboree. The forecast is for jobs losses to fall from -216,000 to -175,000, but the unemployment rate to tick up to 9.8% from 9.7%... I got the feeling, baby, baby, I got the feeling... Oops, a little James Brown on Fantastico Friday never hurts! But what I was saying was I'm getting the feeling that there are risks to this forecast... And that the job losses could come in higher, which would really be a BAD thing for the recovery flag wavers and risk takers, I'm sorry to say...

    ...
  • Jobs Disappoint...

    In This Issue..

    * September job losses soar to 263,000...
    * G-7 does not make statement on currencies...
    * RBA meets tonight...
    * India & Brazil pull the right strings...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The Regular Season for Baseball is over, except... The Tigers and Twins have to play a one-game playoff today! Talk about exciting! And that's just to see who gets to go the playoffs!

    Well... Friday's Jobs Jamboree did disappoint as I had the feeling they would, printing a disappointing -263,000 jobs lost in September. The Unemployment Rate also rose to 9.8%... Now we all know that when all the people that are truly unemployed are counted, that the Unemployment Rate goes to 16%, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will have none of that so-called counting ACTUAL Unemployed people!...
  • RBA Raises Rates!

    In This Issue..

    * Pandora's Box of rate hikes is opened!
    * Is the dollar being removed from oil trades?
    * Deficits do matter, eh?
    * Gold heads toward its all-time high...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Tuesday morning that is seeing a HUGE currency rally VS the dollar on the news that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to go ahead and hike rates now, and not wait for November's meeting, as I had thought they would do! WOW!

    The first hike... It has opened Pandora's Box of interest rate hikes around the world... For, if the RBA went this soon, then we can expect Norway's Norges Bank to push their rate hike earlier on the calendar, maybe even later this month! And they won't be the only ones! Look for New Zealand to hike rates this year, and who knows what other country (Brazil?) will follow after that... But I see them coming, and they're marching the death march of the dollar!...
  • Gold Soars To An All-Time High!

    In This Issue..

    * It was all about Gold yesterday!
    * Commodity Currencies take the lead today...
    * The story behind the euro's non-move...
    * Budget data prints today...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! What a day for Gold yesterday! WOW! In case you were trapped in a cave and didn't hear the news... Gold, which I said yesterday morning looked like it was going to take out its all-time high, did take out its all-time high, and not just take it out! Gold pushed past the all-time high of $1,033.90, and didn't stop until it was trading $1,047 and change! WOW! No check that... Double WOW!

    The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate hike the previous night, opened the door to this run by Gold, as the Gold Bugs all came out and bought the preferred investment to counter soaring inflation... You see, if the RBA is raising rates, when most every other Central Bank is stuck in the mud with near zero rates, the RBA must see something, eh?...
  • Gold Soars To Another All-Time High!

    In This Issue..

    * $1,055 for Gold!
    * Global recovery prospects fuel run on the dollar...
    * Trichet to defend the dollar today?
    * Central Banks are diversifying...

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It's raining here in St. Louis, so, it must be Thursday! It's a big night for yours truly, but I'll talk about that at the end... We've got some big moves going on in the currencies and metals, so we had better get to it, and save the chit-chat for later, eh? But first, today is the funding deadline on our latest BRIC MarketSafe CD... We'll have one more in November and then that's it!

    OK, front and center this morning, Gold has soared to another all-time high! When I turned on the screen this morning, Gold was flashing a great big $1,055 figure... WOW! But wait! OK, now that sounded like an infomercial... But wait! If you act now, you can get double the Ginsu knives! HA! OK, getting back to the original, but wait... Gold and Silver for that matter, aren't the only risk assets moving higher this morning... All 16 of the countries that are deemed to be the biggest U.S. trading partners, have currencies that are taking liberties VS the dollar this morning......
  • ECB & BOE leave rates unchanged...

    In This Issue..

    * ECB & BOE leave rates unchanged...
    * Trichet makes a mistake in judgment...
    * Asian central banks defend the $..
    * Gold pauses...

    Good day...Had a horrible night here in St. Louis, as every one of our teams let victory slip away. As you all know, Chuck drove to Columbia to watch his MIZZOU Tigers take on one of their arch rivals in a rare Thursday night matchup. The game went well into the night, as it was delayed due to problems with the lights at the stadium, so Chuck probably didn't get home until early this morning. I'll have the con on the Pfennig today, but Chuck will be back in the saddle again on Monday.

    As predicted, both European central banks kept interest rates unchanged. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept their benchmark interest rates at record lows in an effort to keep stimulating their economies. Trichet signaled that the ECB has no plans to raise rates in the near future, stating that the current level is 'appropriate' for the current economic environment. 'The recovery is expected to be rather uneven,' Trichet said. 'It will be supported in the short term by temporary factors but will be hampered in the medium term by balance sheet issues at financial and non-financial institutions.'...
  • Central Banks Diversify Out Of The Dollar!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally VS the dollar...
    * Reasons why the U.S. wants a cheaper dollar...
    * Interest rate differentials...
    * Trade Deficit narrows...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! An absolutely awful weekend for our professional sports teams, as the Cardinals, Blues, and Rams all lost! The Cardinals were swept out of the playoffs! UGH! Talk about a downer for yours truly... I sat there, at the game, with my little buddy, and beautiful bride, and saw the writing on the wall early in the game... No life from those redbirds... And so, another baseball season comes to an end here in St. Louis...

    Friday morning, after drying out from Thursday nights drenching, no wait, super soaking at Faurot Field in Columbia, I sat down to breakfast, and read the Pfennig... I noticed that Chris was on a roll about Geithner... I thought that it was a good finish to the things I said about him the previous day! Chris will have the conn on the Pfennig Tuesday through Friday this week......
  • The dollar drifts lower in thin trading..

    In This Issue..

    * US$ drifts lower in light trading...                    
    * Euro/Yen benefit from reserve diversification...                      
    * Pound sterling continues to drop...                                    
    * New Zealand retail sales pick up.....
                                                                                 
    Good day... and happy Tuesday morning to everyone.  As Chuck told everyone yesterday, he is heading down south to a corporate meeting, so you will be stuck with me for the remainder of the week.  Yesterday was an official 'bank holiday' but apparently most of the WorldMarkets customers were unaware, as our phones were surprisingly busy.  Trading in the currency markets was substantially lighter than usual, and with no data releases in the US, the dollar drifted sideways throughout the day.  The European currencies were slightly higher vs. the US$, the Asian currencies were lower vs. the US$, and the commodity based currencies were mixed.

    ...
  • Dollar continues to fall...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar moves lower...
    * China to take a role at IMF...
    * US Borrow and spend policies continue...
    * Gold sets a new record...

    Good day...and what a day it was in the currency markets on Tuesday! The rout on the dollar continued, and was broad based with gains in every currency we trade. The commodity based currencies led the pack, as the weaker dollar fueled a big run up in raw material prices. Reports out of both Asia and Europe signaled the global economy is recovering, and bolstered investors looking for a way out of the falling dollar.

    European industrial output rose for a fourth month in August, increasing just below 1 percent from July. From a year earlier, August output fell 15.4%, a big drop but still the smallest YOY decline in 8 months. The Euro area continues to recover 'at a gradual pace' according to ECB President Trichet. The positive news coming from the manufacturing sector is a good sign the European economic recovery will be sustainable....
  • Dow hits 10,000 and the dollar is down...

    In This Issue..

    * Dow hits 10,000 and the dollar is down...
    * Return of the carry trade?...
    * Global Power Shift Index...
    * Goldman predicts a further fall for the dollar...

    Good day... It is a Thunderin Thursday here as the rain continues for another day. We have had a very wet two weeks here in the midwest, but the cold rain is finally supposed to stop later today. The currencies continued to their thunderin stampede over the US$ yesterday with several reaching fresh highs. The Dow Jones average moved above 10,000 again, so everything must be alright in the world economy now, right?? This morning the dollar bounced back up, but it looks like profit taking and not a more permanent trend. Lots to talk about today, so I'll get right to it....
  • RBA's Stevens Turns On The Green Light!

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar bounces back a bit...
    * Euro retreats from highs...
    * Is the economic recovery for real?
    * Ignored data...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I believe it will be a Fantastico Friday as well, because when I go in my car this morning to come to work, the radio was playing, 'It's a Beautiful Morning'... It had to be a sign, right? I certainly hope so any way!

    Well, I'm back! I have to say that I've never been to the mountains of North Georgia before, and they are beautiful... Well, most of the parts of this great country are, when I come to think of it! Well, it was nice to walk in the door yesterday and sit down, close my eyes, and get work off my brain!...
  • A Loss Of Confidence In the U.S.?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * Euros and Aussie dollars lead the pack...
    * $1.42 Trillion Deficit for 2009!
    * TIC's data gets ignored again!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Another 'lost' weekend for our college and professional football teams! UGH! The sun finally came out this weekend. YAHOO! It felt so good to be in the sun again... The TICs data was something that needed to be dealt with on Friday, but once again the markets ignored it... I'm telling you, this smells like, walks like, and talks like a gag order... OK... Let's get going this Marvelous Monday!

    The non-dollar currencies all drifted on Friday, with the dollar seeing a bit of buying... But that's all been thrown to the curb this morning, as the non-dollar currencies, for the most part, are in rally mode VS the dollar.

    ...
  • Will History Repeat Itself?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * A$'s and C$'s to parity?
    * Reaching 40% of expenditures...
    * Gold & Oil on the rise once again...


    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long day on the desk for me yesterday, left me draggin' the line... But I'm rested and refreshed again this morning, so let's get to the Pfennig for today! The Finance Ministers of the Eurozone met yesterday, as I told you, and they've tried to stem the euro's rise... But, they'll need more than words to get the job done! And so, we begin a new day...

    Front and Center this morning, the currencies, which had given back ground overnight to the dollar, are back in rally mode, and are taking liberties with the dollar once more. For most of the night that was not the case, though. The dollar had rallied back and sent the euro, for instance, to the 1.48 handle, after the single unit spent yesterday at 1.49 and change... There seemed to be a move to the dollar, but that didn't last long, and the currencies are once again rallying VS the dollar this morning, and the euro has pushed to 1.4970 as I write......
  • Brazil Throws The Cat Among The Pigeons!

    In This Issue..

    * Real leads Commodity Currencies to the woodshed!
    * Niall Ferguson speaks his mind...
    * BOC leaves rates and statement unchanged...
    * Bollard gives the green light!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! How many people out there know about "network neutrality"? Well, if you don't know, you're about to find out tomorrow, when it will be decided upon... I'm not going to get into it, because after you find out what it is you'll know why I didn't explain... All I'll say is that this is just another thing that's flying below the radar that's about to be thrown in our laps...

    OK... Well... Yesterday, after signing off and hitting the 'send button' for the Pfennig, I saw a story that shot across the desk, and then a follow up was sent to me by Don Ries later in the morning. The story was about the Brazilian Gov't imposing a 2% tax on capital inflows... This was done in an attempt to slow down the Brazilian economy by slowing down the "hot money" that's going into the Brazilian stock market by foreigners... Talk about throwing a cat among the pigeons!...

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