August 2009 - Daily Pfennig

A free, quick-reading daily e-letter on world currencies, economic trends, and the occasional baseball score.

Daily Pfennig

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  • Another Jobs Jamboree!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range... Again!
    * Continuing Claims rise...
    * Bank of England adds to QE! UGH!
    * Swiss franc posts 5 weeks of gains...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm going to go out on a limb and say it will be a Fantastico Friday! This has been a long week for yours truly, coming off a week of relaxation, and getting right back in the saddle... But... It's Friday... YAHOO!

    OK... There are a few things to discuss this morning, but none so important as the Jobs Jamboree that will happen in a couple of hours from now. I told you yesterday that the economists surveyed believe that the jobs lost number will make a big move downward from 476,000 in June to 325,000 in July... That's a HUGE jump folks! Ty Keough responded to that note in the Pfennig yesterday by saying, "That's because there are no more jobs to cut!" Now, that's one way of looking at it... We have to hope that it's not that, but instead be a reflection of jobs being added... Come on! We can hope!...
  • Spending More Than We (the U.S.) Make...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range
    * Pesos, loonies and reals in the spotlight...
    * The Mogambo on a Thursday! YAHOO!
    * Jobs reports dominate today & tomorrow...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Once again yesterday, we traded all day in a very tight range with the currencies. The ADP/Challenger data didn't give anyone a warm and fuzzy about the labor picture, and tax receipts are in the news... So, let's go to the tape!

    OK, front and center this morning, I have to talk about this deal with tax receipts in this country. So, I've chronicled the April and June debacles for tax receipts, but just in case someone is new to class, and missed that, let's review... The U.S. used to count on the months of April and June for HUGE cash receipts from tax returns, but this year, both April and June's tax receipts were so bad, the expenditures were greater than the receipts! I highlight these two months because, they should have been positive months for the budget balance... If we can't post a positive balance in April and June, what's the rest of the year going to look like?

    ...
  • GDP Does Not Compute, Will Robinson!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range
    * Pound Sterling, the star performer?
    * Something smells fishy...
    * Do you see trend with Gov. Reports?

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! We had a very tight range trading day yesterday in the currencies, which have left them trading in about the same clothes they were wearing when I signed off yesterday! We've got that to talk about, and... Another $2 Billion for the CARS program has been allocated... What a crock! OK, Chuck, slow down, you don't need to get your blood boiling this quickly, this morning!

    I'm writing from home this morning, as I have a meeting close to our old office, which means its not far from where I live, which is completely different from our current office location, which is, I'll say... Quite a distance... But, hey! I'm not complaining, just giving you the details......
  • U.S. Manufacturing Is Recovering...

    In This Issue..

    * A strong currency move Monday...
    * RBA leaves rates unchanged...
    * And moves bias to neutral...
    * Central Bank warnings have no teeth!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! First day back yesterday was a killer for yours truly... Went home, and went to sleep... But, I'm back today, and feeling good. I did something to my left knee on vacation that left me hobbling, and leaning on my cane more than I usually do. But today, it seems a bit better, so I've got that going for me!

    Yesterday, I left you with the euro popping back and forth over the 1.43 level... But in a wink of an eye, the 1.43 level was gone, and the euro was trading with a 1.44 level, and remained there the rest of the day, reaching 1.4420 for the high... As I turn on the screens this morning, I see that the single unit has gone to popping back and forth over the 1.44 level... You don't think it will get another sling-shot higher today do you?...
  • Heeeeeeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk...

    In This Issue..

    * A strong currency move on Friday...
    * Data Cupboard gets a work out this week...
    * U.K. and ECB meet this week...
    * RBA to move to neutral tonight?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Heeeeeeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk... Oh no! Just when you thought it was safe to open the Daily Pfennig and not get lectured on deficit spending... He's back! Oh well, It's been over two weeks, first to Vancouver, then on vacation. We've got a lot of catching up to do, eh? Mike and Chris did a Fantastico job of taking the conn on the Pfennig in my absence... So thanks to them... But it's back to me, and besides a couple of days in San Francisco later this month, I'm all yours! (I bet that just makes you smile like a Cheshire Cat... NOT!)

    OK... Rather than beat around the bush this morning, Chris left me this note from Friday's price action, so let's go to the Friday round up and then onto today! Here's Chris!...