Feds Say NO To CIT...
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In This Issue..

* Currencies have strong day...            
* What are the qualifications?         
* JP Morgan posts 36% increase in earnings...                          
* RBA attempts to keep A$'s in check...                                                               

And Now... Today's Pfennig!

Feds Say NO To CIT...                

Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! The first day this week that I've gotten up and to work at my normal time. I hit the wall yesterday afternoon, went home, watched about 10 minutes of the Wizard of Oz (my all-time fave movie) with granddaughter Delaney Grace, and then went to sleep! Crazy, I know, but when you hit the wall, you hit the wall!

Yesterday was a strong day in the currencies. I wrote yesterday about how the euro was inching toward 1.41, but the level had been a tough row to hoe, with the euro giving back ground each time it went higher than 1.41... And... That was the case yesterday! The euro did trade higher than 1.41. It was 1.4120 when I left the office! But, as I turn on the screens this morning, the single unit has fallen below the 1.41 figure...

I think we'll probably see a day when the Risk Aversion campers come back out to play, given the news on CIT... The lender, CIT, was told that they would NOT receive any Federal assistance... (I guess they didn't have any ex-Goldman Sachs employees at CIT!) This news has pushed stock futures down this morning, and the "risk" of yet another bankruptcy that could shake the market is on the table. You know me... I would prefer that the Gov't was not involved in all this, so on one hand, I'm not sorry that CIT will not get assistance... On the other hand though, it really raises the question as to just what are the qualifications to receiving federal funds? Because Lehman Brothers, (Goldman's biggest competitor at the time) didn't qualify... But AIG did... Of course AIG owed Goldman a ton of money.. Maybe that's the qualification! Oh, I'm not going to get started on all this, I'm sure there are all kinds of stories going around for you all to read that would keep me out of the hot seat with the legal beagles!

So... If the Risk Aversion campers come back out to play today, that means we could see pressure on the currencies once again... Unless... Yes, unless we saw a break of the link with stocks and currencies... And then traders and investors would look at the fact that the "green shoots" are nothing but dandelions, and the U.S. fundamentals are rotten, which will cause more deficit spending, more dollar printing, more monetizing debt, and all the other things that should, fundamentally speaking, weigh heavily on the dollar!

All of the currencies, except yen, are off their highs of yesterday this morning. With Risk Aversion back on the table, Japanese yen is rallying again... This going back and forth from one day to the next is really beginning to give me rash! I'm tired of it! I'm also tired of writing about it!

OK, did you see the results of the FOMC's meeting minutes yesterday? In case you didn't, the minutes read like a book from the fiction section of the book store... The Fed revised up growth for the rest of this year and next year. Although the Fed raised their growth forecast... they raised the expected ranges for the unemployment rate through the forecast. So... What I took from the minutes is that the Fed doesn't believe the unemployment problem will begin to seriously reverse itself until 2011...

So... I just don't know where the growth will come from... And yes, I'm very well aware of the fact that labor is a lagging factor of growth... But with 1 in 5 people unemployed, I don't see where the growth will come from... Do you?

Oh... And U.S. Foreclosure filings hit a record in the first half of 2009... More than 1.5 Million properties received a default or auction notice or were seized by banks in the first 6 months of this year... That's a 15% increase from 2008's first half... One in 84 U.S. Households received a filing... But the Fed see's growth? Maybe if this data was showing a bottom... But from what I see, it is much like house prices still searching for a bottom...

Speaking of the Fed.. I read this in the Wall Street Journal...

"More than 175 prominent economists are warning that "the independence of U.S. monetary policy is at risk" because of attacks on the Fed. They are urging Congress and the president to "avoid compromising [the U.S. central bank's] ability to manage monetary policy as it sees fit" and to refrain from politicizing its decisions on emergency loans to financial institutions.

The move to publicly defend the Fed's role reflects growing unease among academic economists, former Fed officials and some investors that the vehemence of the criticism from Congress of the Fed's handling of the financial crisis suggests a readiness in Congress to weaken the freedom the Fed has to move interest rates as it see fits."

Hmmm... I would like a list of those 175 prominent economists so I can give them a piece of my mind! While the Fed is "supposed" to be independent, its mere existence is questionable at best! Why not let the markets decide what interest rates should be? Again, though, I won't get into all this deeper, because, it would take over the entire letter for weeks! I just thought I would throw it out there and see what it hit...

Ok... Remember last week when I told you how June is normally a "good month" for the Budget Statement here in the U.S.? Well... For the first time since 1991, June was a deficit for the Budget! The Budget Deficit was $94.3 Billion in June! OUCH! Hey! Don't we normally see quarterly tax returns to keep the Budget Balance from turning to a deficit in June? Why yes, Chuck, we do... Or... DID! Not this year, folks... And probably not next year either! Tax receipts fell 17% (year on year) in June... And for all of you keeping score at home... For the year so far... Revenues are down 17.9%, and expenditures are up 20.5%... Not a good formula, eh?

Have you seen the results of the first set of earnings reports this week? Goldman and now JP Morgan reported some nice earnings... That's nice, eh? I say that with my own style of facetious tone!

I'll say this... You can scrap what I wrote about earlier that the Risk Aversion campers will come out to play today because of the CIT verdict... That's because JP Morgan just announced a 36% increase in 2nd QTR earnings! And you should have seen the currencies turn from red to green! The euro is back above 1.41... See how fickle these traders are? They can turn on you in a NY minute!

The JP Morgan earnings will have to hold fort on the markets forgetting about CIT, until more earnings announcements come out... So far, the "banks" have surprised me on their earnings...

I really do think that if we could put all this back and forth behind us the euro would move 3 to 4% higher, and then wait to see what happens then... But, that's a BIG IF...

Today, we'll see the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which really dropped last week... I had the thought when I saw the figure drop last week that maybe we've saturated the layoffs... In other words, maybe, Corporations are getting pretty close to not being able to cut any more jobs... It's a thought...

We'll also see the color of the TIC's data (Treasury International Capital) or... What used to be called the Net foreign Purchases report... The TIC's data will be May's print, and is expected to remain quite low, thus not covering the required amount of purchases to finance the Current Account Deficit... Which means, the financing gets shoved to next month... We keep shoving this all down the road... Just like everything else... We'll let someone else deal with it in the future... That's so sad! My friend, Bill Bonner, talks about this, in the award winning movie, I.O.U.S.A.  Bonner recalls that Thomas Jefferson called it "immoral for one generation to load up the next generation with debt."

But, we go on about our lives each day, without worry about what we are doing to future generations... Again... I had better stop there before I go off on a tangent so long you could grow a beard while reading! HA!

I received an email yesterday responding to my discussing the increase in taxes on the wealthy... Just like I said in the Pfennig yesterday, where you stand on this all depends on what pain you'll receive... I did see that in most states, the taxes would go above 50% to pay for the health care...

And then there was this... I see where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sold A-dollars
(A$) in June... Hmmm... I said a few weeks ago that I didn't think the RBA was selling A$'s to keep a lid on the currency, but merely evening out the flows... But now, the June total was A$1.9 Billion of its own currency, sold...

I've now changed my mind on this... I believe the RBA is attempting to keep the A$ around 80-cents, given the global recession and everything else going on the financial markets, the RBA probably sees a real problem with a soaring A$ at this point. While I never like a Central Bank selling their own currency... I can't say that I blame the RBA here... They have one of the best stories going around regarding a currency, and if left untouched by the RBA, the currency could be soaring right now, which would in normal times be OK with the RBA, but in current times, is not OK with the RBA... So...

Until the markets decide they want to push the envelope with the RBA on keeping the A$ around 80-cents... That's where it will remain... But... Should the markets decide to push the envelope and test the RBA's mettle, then 80-cents will be left in the rear view mirror... Unfortunately, and I've talked about this before, today's currency traders don't have the cajones to fight Central Banks any more...

Currencies today 7/16/09: A$ .8015, kiwi .6460, C$ .8940, euro 1.4115, sterling 1.6450, Swiss .9325, rand 8.10, krone 6.3675, SEK 7.7770, forint 193.50, zloty 3.0350, koruna 18.3420, yen 93.90, sing 1.4510, HKD 7.75, INR 48.70, China 6.8311, pesos 13.57, BRL 1.9330, dollar index 79.38, Oil $60.95, 10-year 3.59%, Silver $13.27, and Gold... $939.50

That's it for today... And for me, for 2 weeks! Yes, I'll be gone, first to Vancouver, and then when I return, I'll be heading down the road on vacation with my family. Before I got sick two years ago, the Butler family would pack up our camper and head to Southwest Missouri for a vacation. My kids love camping! So, it's a week of relaxation for me. No cell phones, no laptops, no communication, as we are very deep in the Ozark Mountains! This will be the first time since I got sick two years ago, that we'll attempt camping again... Chris will be kind enough to take the conn on the Pfennig for me. I will send updates from Vancouver, but not from vacation... Speaking of Vancouver, getting there, and getting out are awful things to have to go through, but while I'm in Vancouver, it's an awesome city! Ok... Back to getting this out on time! YAHOO! It's time to make this a Tub Thumpin' Thursday!

Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
1-800-926-4922
1-314-647-3837





Posted 07-16-2009 9:40 AM by Chuck Butler
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