June 2009 - Daily Pfennig

A free, quick-reading daily e-letter on world currencies, economic trends, and the occasional baseball score.

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • The Currency Rally Continues!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro trades past 1.42...
    * Geithner make a promise to China...
    * Central Bank meetings this week...
    * Canada's Fin Min, speaks...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And welcome to June... Tradition in the Pfennig means a quick rendition of: June is bustin' out all over... All over the meadow and the hill! Buds're bustin' outta bushes... And the rompin' river pushes... Ev'ry little wheel that wheels beside the mill! And you thought I was a just an old Rock-n-roller!

    Well, on Friday I left you with the story of a currency rally for the ages... And it didn't let up there! Although the rest of the day on Friday the bias was to sell dollars, the real chunk of the dollar wasn't taken until last night in Asia... Here's the deal folks, and this won't be the first time you've heard this from me either!...
  • A Dollar Roadblock!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro goes back and forth over 1.42...
    * Geithner make another promise to China...
    * RBA leaves rates unchanged...
    * The Mogambo on a Tuesday!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... The currencies, led by the euro, ran into a dollar road block yesterday, not once, not twice, but three times... The first two times the euro traded over the 1.42 figure, it fell back, but recovered to again try to remain over 1.42... It was a classic case of profit taking at a line of resistance... But the third time, was no charm for the euro, and thus it ended the day and night sessions below 1.42... But hey! Has this run from 1.2578 on March 1st, been something or what?

    I see where UBS believes this is it for the euro... Sort of like the thought that a star burns the brightest right before it burns out... Hmmm... I guess they believe that the U.S. deficit problems are going to go away... Apparently, they drank the kool-aid from U.S. Treasury Sec. Geithner, who told the Chinese that the U.S. was going to shrink the deficit... He also told them that their assets were 'safe'... Ty sent me something on this that he found yesterday......
  • More Wild Swings!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro goes back and forth over 1.43...
    * Eurozone unemployment rises to 9.2%
    * Australia's GDP surprises!
    * Is it protectionism?

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm draggin' the line today, as I was helping my oldest son, Andrew, with things in his brand, spankin' new house, last night. Congrats to Andrew, for finding a great bargain, with a low, fixed, interest rate!

    OK... Whew! What a day in the currencies yesterday! Another day, and another day of wild swings.. Volatility is the name of the game these days... Watching, for instance, the euro trade down to 1.4220, and then up to 1.4320 and not just on a one-way ticket! Oh No! this is a bounce here a bounce there... But just like it was going from 1.41 to 1.42, it took a few times over the 1.42 figure before it finally stuck, and headed to 1.43... All the other currencies followed in the swings, as usual......
  • Magical Currency Tours!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies get whacked by Geithner!
    * Big Ben wants the budget deficit cut!
    * BOE and ECB meetings today...
    * I told you this was going to get ugly...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes... Tub Thumpin' because I said so! Yesterday was absolutely a 10 on the crazy meter, and We the People, just continue to sit and take whatever the Government and media tell us is 'best for us in these uncommon times'... I've got some interesting words on this later in the letter... It's time for me to get on my soap box once again, so... At least I've prepared you! But first... Some currency news!

    Well... Yesterday, I left you with the thought that the currencies were selling off, after the Asian Central Banks all made statements regarding their support of the dollar as the world's reserve currency... Here are some further thoughts on that......
  • Who's Foolin' Who?

    In This Issue..

    * Jobs Jamboree gets a lift...
    * The real numbers...
    * The dollar comes back with vengeance!
    * RBNZ to meet this week...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! You know the Jobs Jamboree data that printed on Friday, and created some HUGE euphoria among the media types that love to just "read the news" and not actually do the research to report it? Yes... It was a very good number, on the outside... Not that losing 345,000 jobs in a month is a good thing, but it is far better than the near 700,000 jobs lost a couple of months ago.

    So... I've got that to talk about today... And the rebound by the dollar that has taken the euro to the 1.38 handle and looking as if it is going to go lower... And, then finally, I have to get on my soapbox again, because I don't think I want my President calling me names! So, all that and more as we begin this 2nd week of June......
  • Rising Treasury Yields...

    In This Issue..

    * Another Treasury auction today...
    * Spending habits come back to haunt reps...
    * Some healing in the currencies...
    * 10 Banks to repay TARP today...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... I sure stirred up the hornet's nest yesterday... Some people didn't think I should express my opinion... But that's OK... Here's the skinny... I wrote yesterday about the farce that the jobs report was, and what a feeble job the media did in reporting the 'real numbers'... I then threw something in the Pfennig that I don't normally do, just to see what was more important to people... The fact that their Gov't lies to them, or the fact that they don't see eye-to-eye with me on the President...

    Given the response, I'd say that most had their eye on the ball with the jobs farce... And that's all I'm going to say from here on out......
  • A Turn Around Tuesday!

    In This Issue..

    * Another Treasury auction today...
    * Goldman says to buy euros!
    * Oil fuels Commodity Currencies!
    * RBNZ to meet tonight...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Yesterday was 'Turn Around Tuesday'! Add to that, the fact that there were a number of reasons for the euro to lead the charge for currencies VS the dollar yesterday. And... A word from one of the economists that I keep on my list of 'to read'... So, let's get to the tape from Turn Around Tuesday!

    I heard yesterday someone say 'well, we sure turned around today in the currencies'... And I thought, Shoot Rudy, why not name it Turn Around Tuesday? Then I went back to the history page on my trusty Bloomberg, and saw that on 4 of the last 5 Tuesdays, the currencies did in fact 'turn around' their performances from the day before! Not that this is something we can hand our hats on, and make trades accordingly on Monday nights / Tuesday mornings... But, it's an interesting fact nonetheless!...
  • Happy Friday, Here We Go Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally gets wiped out...
    * Geithner to talk about a strong dollar?
    * Brazil cuts rates!
    * The Fed to control everything? YIKES!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Another seemingly long week for yours truly... Where's a 3-day Holiday weekend when you need one? Have you been following the goings on with the investigation into the Bank of America (BOA) purchase of Merrill Lynch? Whoa, there partner! I thought for sure this would get all swept under the rug, but it's all coming out, every dirty deed! Dirty deeds done dirt cheap!

    Before we get into the goings on there... Let's talk about the currencies and their huge jump yesterday, only to see chicken traders come out of the woodwork overnight to support the dollar going into the G-8 meeting....
  • Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Russia's Fin Min talks up the dollar!
    * Currencies, commodities, stocks all lose ground...
    * Who's car is uglier
    * Gold hit a 3-week low...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! How about that weekend? I actually didn't get a chance to experience much of it outside, but it sure looked great! We have new champions in basketball and hockey, so congrats to the Lakers and Penguins on their Championships! Now, the housecleaning is out of the way... It's time to get to the meat... Where's the beef? HA!...
  • German Investor Confidence Is On The Rise...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies stop the dollar's run...
    * BRIC meeting could get ugly for the dollar...
    * RBA meeting notes good for Aussie dollars...
    * Depressing data / forecasts for housing...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Thundering storms moved through here this morning, as I was preparing to leave home and drive to the office. As slow as I am with getting around these days, I got pretty wet from my car to the office building. But, I didn't melt, as most would have thought! HA! And, I'll dry out soon enough... Well before anyone else comes in!

    OK... Well... When I left you yesterday, the dollar was on a rampage, from the comments by the Russian Finance Minister, Kudrin... Was it an overreaction, I asked? A resounding YES was my answer... I think the proof is in the pudding on that this morning, as the dollar buying has hit a roadblock, and reversed overnight, with the euro gaining back about 1%......
  • Stuck In A Range...

    In This Issue..

    * A Turn Around Tuesday?
    * BRIC meeting doesn't get covered by the media?
    * Are the Bearer Bonds real or fakes?
    * QTC's get Gov. backing!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Remember last week, when I said that we had a 'Turn Around Tuesday?' I came in this morning to find a story that Chris Gaffney had printed off the Bloomie for me... The writer refers to the price action yesterday as 'Turn Around Tuesday!' OK... I for one, don't even begin to believe that I was the originator of a saying like that for the currencies... I just find it interesting, that a week after I make a big deal out Turn Around Tuesday that it is used in a story with much wider distribution than my little old Pfennig!...
  • Gold Vending Machines!

    In This Issue..

    * More range trading...
    * SNB doesn't target the franc...
    * Norges Bank cuts rate but looks forward...
    * Buy your gold and Snickers!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It was 95 here yesterday, and forecast to be even warmer, or should I say hotter, today! WOW! Like overnight, it turned to summer, after the coldest, most wet, spring I can ever recall... I know, I'll get 100 emails reminding me that summer doesn't officially start until next week... I'm just talking about the summer-like weather!

    The currencies remained in that range I talked about yesterday, with a slight bias to sell dollars, but not much of one. Crude Oil prices moved higher on the day and overnight, which doesn't play well with a dollar rally, and therefore, has pushed the dollar down a bit... But again, we're talking minor moves. It's as if someone (traders) are waiting for something BIG to happen with data, the Fed, the Treasury, before taking one direction....
  • A Sustainable Economic Recovery?

    In This Issue..

    * More range trading...
    * Eurozone doesn't need more stimulus...
    * A$'s outperform on rate outlook...
    * A double whammy for the dollar...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The end of another week... I was out on Monday, and it still seems to have been another long week! UGH! Oh well... It's Friday, and this weekend is Father's Day... So, we've got that going for us, eh?

    More range trading in the currencies yesterday, with the euro leading the currencies higher for most of the day, only to see their gains slip, sliding away by the late afternoon. In the overnight markets, the currencies, once again, have moved higher, but nothing to get all lathered up about......
  • Currencies and Commodities Sell Off...

    In This Issue..

    * Overnight markets ambush risk assets...
    * Germany's IFO Business Confidence gains again...
    * A$'s get pounded by opposite thought story...
    * More supply to auction off for the U.S....

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your Father's Day weekend was grand... Mine sure was! I'm feeling the affects of the 'grand' weekend this morning too! And... It was the first day of Summer! So we had all that going for us, eh?

    Front and center this morning, I'm as proud as a peacock this morning. I just read an email from good friend, and excellent market analyst, Mary Anne Aden... Mary Anne sent me a note letting me know that the one and only Richard Russell had quoted me in his letter June 10th... She said it went something like...'this is from Chuck Butler's always terrific column...' WOW! Being quoted in Richard Russell's letter is like the top of the list for me!...
  • So Far... It's A Turn Around Tuesday!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies bounce back...
    * Commodities and Commodity Currencies get hit hard!
    * China's recovery a myth?
    * Devaluation in the dollar's future?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's too hot in the hot tub! You can't make me get in the hot tub! Ahhh... When I walk outside and my eye glasses fog up from the heat and humidity, I think of that old Saturday Night skit, with Eddie Murphy playing James Brown!

    OK... Well, yesterday we saw the currencies stop the bleeding from the overnight sell off, and although they range traded on the day, the bias was to sell dollars once again. That bias has played through on our Turn Around Tuesday theme, and the currencies are higher today than yesterday, but lower than they were 3-weeks ago week ago. Yes, the month of June has not been kind to the currencies, as some of the euphoria that was going on from March thru May, regarding the global economic recovery is being thought about again, and this time, not with the same rose colored glasses......

1 2 Next >