AIA Advocate for Absolute Returns : Stock Prices

Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 06/25/2009

Research & Editorial Staff — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:32:00 GMT

In This Issue:

Mixed Economic Signals Worry Investors
Another Kind Of Bailout Is Also A Concern
A New Economic Reality Is Emerging
For Efficient Companies, Slow Growth Can Be Profitable
Your Best Strategy Now
Three Analysts And A Fool Have Recommended This Stock
The Bottom Line This Week

In our last issue we remarked that "the rally may be getting short of breath." Shortly thereafter, the huffing and puffing began in earnest. On Monday of this week, definite wheezing sounds were heard as the bull dropped to its knees just short of pushing the market into positive territory for the year. Perhaps the old boy was out of shape after letting the bear take over for six months.

In any event, since May 28 the Dow dropped 0.8% while the Nasdaq managed to squeak ahead a miniscule 0.8%. More importantly, both measures slipped 3.0% and 1.7% last week – and they are even lower now.

Mixed Economic Signals Worry Investors

It is not possible at this early juncture to know if the bear has returned. However, we can say that many of the economic "green shoots" that have attracted so much attention of late are beginning to look a bit wilted.

Sales of existing homes are typical of the economic signals that are making investors nervous. Sales increased 2.4% in May, which suggests that the housing market is finally turning around. At the same time, however, home prices dropped again and are now 16.8% lower than they were a year ago. Economists can't decide if the increasing sales offset the negative consequences of declining prices. Until the matter is settled, many investors are taking a time out.

There are also mixed signals about inflation and interest rates. On the one hand, rising oil and commodity prices are clearly inflationary. Ditto for the money supply that is shooting up due to all the king-sized bailouts from Uncle Sugar.

But at the same time, wages are dropping, layoffs are increasing, household wealth is plummeting, and several states are on the edge of bankruptcy – all of which point to continued deflation. Since the tug of war between inflationary and deflationary forces could go either way, many investors are sitting on their money.

Lastly, investors were counting on a solid global turnaround in the coming months. Those hopes were put in question when the World Bank reported that growth would contract 2.9% this year instead of expanding 1.7% as previously predicted. Oops! Even if the numbers are not spot on, the reversal in the outlook is disconcerting.

Another Kind Of Bailout Is Also A Concern

It's not just investors who are nervous about the economy. The grand poobahs at America's largest companies are also moving their chairs closer to the door. In fact, many company officers are leaving the party altogether.

According to TrimTabs, a respected group of investment analysts, in June insiders at S&P 500 companies unloaded $2.6 billion worth of shares, vs a paltry $120 million purchases – and the month isn't even over yet. That lopsided ratio indicates that many executives believe the business outlook is not very good. Although company insiders are not always right, their track records are much better than from Wall Street number crunchers who aren't on the front lines.

A New Economic Reality Is Emerging

Of course, the disappointing green shoots news is no surprise to our readers. We have been arguing for months that "a recovery will probably be more modest" than most analysts and investors expect. Instead, the economy is probably just settling into a lower pace of activity where it may remain for years.

The biggest impediment to a strong rebound is this recession isn't just another contraction in the business cycle. Instead, the economy is adjusting to major structural changes in banking, credit, trade, manufacturing, consumer credit, and many other conditions – all of which are scaling down.

For example, many homeowners and realtors think that rising home sales indicate that the housing market will soon be moving up again. That may be true in many markets. However, rebounds to anywhere near pre-collapse levels are almost certainly out of the question for several years.

Likewise, manufacturers will probably need to rehire some workers to replace inventories that have been drawn down over the past year or so. But another all-out production boom is very unlikely. The outlooks are similar for the other engines of growth.

The biggest change is occurring on the social front. The madcap spending binge of a few years ago is being replaced by the desire to be frugal and put money away for the future. Even people with good incomes are changing their spending habits. The old phrase "He who dies with the most toys wins," is being replaced with "A penny saved is a penny earned." Since consumer spending is two thirds of the economy, the new thrift indicates that growth will be very modest for some time to come.

For Efficient Companies, Slow Growth Can Be Profitable

Some readers may wonder how any companies can possibly prosper given the big economic problems that dominate the news.

The answer is that the front pages don't tell the whole story of what is happening in America. The economy has a lot more going for it than banking, housing, and auto making. Although earnings are down in nearly every industry, most companies are still in the black.

That's especially true for multinational firms that do a substantial amount of business in countries with stronger growth rates than in the U.S.

Your Best Strategy Now

Thanks to the rally, we have seen excellent gains in our blue chip stocks. Although the upturn may have a second wind and continue for another few weeks, we think the possible rewards are not worth the risk. Accordingly, this would appear to be a good time to take some profits off the table.

Stocks that you intend to keep for the long haul you should protect with stop loss orders. If you are a conservative investor, using a tight stop of 10% might be in order, although choosing 15% would give prices more wiggle room.

More aggressive investors should consider using a 20% or a 25% stop to protect against a large loss in case the market is blindsided by an unforeseen event.

All investors who use stop loss orders should make them trailing stops that will follow any additional price rises every step of the way. The most effective trailing stops are based upon a percent of the price, but you can also choose fixed prices if they suit your needs better.

We also think you should make use of a correction to buy high quality stocks that fall significantly in price. All the high quality stocks that we have been recommending of late should be on your list including: ConAgra Foods (CAG) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CAG, ExxonMobil (XOM), http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XOM, Hormel Foods (HRL) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HRL, Colgate Palmolive (CL) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CL, and Procter & Gamble (PG) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PG. We think the blue chip group is as close to being a sure long term bet as Wall Street ever offers.

A bit more aggressive, but with prospects to match, are Alcoa (AA) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AA, Deere (DE) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DE, General Electric (GE) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GE, and Caterpillar (CAT http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CAT. All the companies are tied to the global economy, they are very efficient, and they can prosper even in a slow growth environment.

A new investment that we believe has excellent prospects is the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EEM. Emerging nations are growing much more strongly than in the U.S., and they should continue to do so. The BRIC countries in particular (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), are developing their large internal markets and are becoming less dependent upon exports to Europe and the U.S. The BRIC countries are also signing currency exchange agreements with each other to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar – but that's a story and an opportunity we must leave for next time.

THREE ANALYSTS AND A FOOL HAVE RECOMMENDED THIS STOCK

Last month we reported on a significantly undervalued China stock we had been following for quite some time. Those of you who took a position in Universal Travel Group (NYSE Amex: UTA) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UTA have been rewarded with a very nice upward move of 44%, with Wednesday's close at $10.10.

Since moving to the American Stock Exchange, UTA has been showing up on more radar screens than a 757. The Company was profiled by "The Motley Fool CAPS" on June 23, 2009. One comment that caught our attention was..."Universal Travel has outpaced the other 11 stocks in the CAPS Travel Services sector by orders of magnitude. Shares of the growing travel company are up nearly 50% over the past month (and up more than 223% year to date),compared to the 6% increase across the sector since late May."

You may recall that Universal Travel specializes in online and customer representative services. The Company offers packaged tours, air ticketing, hotel reservation and agency services. They racked up some great numbers from 2005 through 2008: 202% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) ... they have no long-term debt ... $16.2 million in cash ... $30.2 million in working capital... and earnings of $14.5 million for the full year ending 12/31/08.

By our calculations, they have earned $1.20 ttm, and at a closing price of $10.10 on 6/23/09, they are still trading at less than a 8.5 P/E multiple. Comparable industry multiples range from 25 to 43 times earnings...even with its recent share price increase, Universal Travel has a lot of upward potential.

Three independent analysts have issued recommendations on UTA in the past eight months...the latest indicating a price target in the $16 to $18 range. We think that could be conservative, given the average P/E multiple of 34 might suggest a price approaching $40 per share. Given the Company's YOY growth of top and bottom lines, that's certainly possible in the next 12 to 18 months.

Go to http://cnutg.ir.stockpr.com/ for more details.

The Bottom Line This Week

The green shoots that most investors have been expecting are here, but they are developing more slowly than expected. We think the reason is the U.S. economy is adjusting to a lower level of growth instead of making a traditional post recession rebound.

Fortunately, well-established companies are adept at squeezing profits from slack markets. At the top of that list are our top-rated blue chip companies. All of them may be purchased if a correction makes their prices attractive again.

Investors who will accept extra risk in return for the prospect of higher profits should look to emerging markets where growth rates remain high. Among them, the BRIC countries appear to offer the greatest long-term potential, with China leading the pack.

In the interest of full disclosure, John M. Casson, Executive Director of AIA is president of Casson Media Group, Inc. (CMG), an affiliated company. CMG has received cash compensation and allocated $2500 for the transmission of this publication as part of a comprehensive corporate communications services agreement for Universal Travel Group. Although the Research and Editorial Staff of AIA conducts independent research and analysis, you should be aware of this potential conflict of interest.

Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 11/20/2008

Research & Editorial Staff — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 15:31:00 GMT

In This Issue:

Stocks Search For A Bottom
High Energy Prices Will Return
Commodities Will Also Rebound
Infrastructure Spending Is Likely To Soar
The Bottom Line This Week

Stocks stumbled badly again last week as deteriorating economic news caused another round of investors to throw in the towel. By Friday afternoon, the Dow and the Nasdaq were down an additional 5.0% and 7.9%. The declines left the two indices down 35.9% and 42.8% for the year. Ouch!

This week got off to an equally bad start. Although we had a 151 point gain on Tuesday, it was overshadowed by a 651 point slide on Monday and Wednesday.

Stocks Search For A Bottom

As we discussed in our October 16 issue, each additional market plunge marks another step in the capitulation process that must run its course before stocks can begin to recover. How long the selling will last, and how far the market will fall before the carnage stops, is anybody's guess. For the present, sentiment is overwhelming fundamentals.

What we do know, however, is most stocks are more attractively priced than they have been in over 20 years. We can also say that over a century of stock market history shows that investors will eventually price stocks at their proper values. That means we can start to purchase today's high quality bargains with a lot of confidence that they will pay off at some point in the future.

Three important developments look especially attractive now. We think each of them has the potential to significantly increase the value of your long term portfolio.

High Energy Prices Will Return

Contrary to what Joe and Sally MidAmerica may believe, the energy crisis is not over - it has merely been suspended due to the global economic slowdown. When demand picks up again, the world will go back to the tight supply/demand situation that pushed prices into the stratosphere earlier this year.

The numbers tell the story. Before the economy started to cool off, oil producers pumped 86 million barrels a day. At the same time, the world consumed 85 million barrels a day. The million barrel difference was the tightest supply/demand balance we've ever seen in a major commodity.

According to an article in Forbes, world oil demand has since fallen by 1.1 million barrels of oil a day. That small decline still leaves the supply/demand balance on a knife edge. It would not take a very big uptick in the economy, or a problem with supply, to push the world back into an energy deficit. Every expert we consulted expects to see it happen within a few years. Several analysts think that shortages may reappear by late 2009.

Astute readers might look at the data and wonder how such a small decrease in demand could create such a big plunge in prices. The answer is it couldn't do so by itself. However, during the first half of 2008 suppliers were so worried about a possible delivery interruption that they built up their inventories to record levels. The Saudi's even used retired oil tankers as depots.

As a result, when demand slacked off a few months ago the world suddenly found itself awash in oil, and prices plunged. Once the extra oil is gone, prices will start to move back up again.

Attractive Energy Investments:

We think the tight oil supply/demand situation is a great opportunity for long-term investors. One way to play the rebound is to invest in ExxonMobil (XOM), the world's largest energy supplier. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XOM

ExxonMobil is a highly diversified company that produces both oil and natural gas, much of which it turns into petrochemicals, fertilizers, plastics, and other products. The company also has interests in electrical plants that are fueled with XOM's energy.

Despite ExxonMobil's leading position in its industry, the stock now carries a low P/E of 8.2 and a forward dividend yield of 2.2%. All in all, we think XOM is greatly oversold.

Another company that should do exceptionally well over the next few years is Transocean (RIG), a stock we have recommended in the past. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RIG All the major oil producers report that they need to find additional supplies, and they are willing to spend many billions of dollars to get them. As one of the world's leading exploration and development companies, Transocean should capture a great deal of the new business.

Commodities Will Also Rebound

The outlook for raw materials and commodities is nearly identical to that for energy, and for the same reasons. Particularly with agricultural commodities and some industrial metals, the surpluses are not very large. The supplies will disappear quickly when growth starts to rebound.

Attractive Commodity Investments:

One company that is already bouncing back is Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), an old favorite of ours. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ADM From its 2008 low of $13.53, the stock is back to the mid $20 area - a move that occurred while the economy and stock market were dropping.

The ADM rebound should not be a surprise because many foreign economies are still growing, and so are their populations. Since ADM deals in inexpensive basic foods, including grains and oils, the company should remain on a growth track for as far ahead as we can see.

Yet to recover is another top-performing AIA Advocate pick, BHP Billiton (BHP). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BHP This leading supplier of industrial metals is more sensitive to the economy than ADM, but that means it should rise even more strongly when growth begins to pick up. Meanwhile, BHP has an incredibly low P/E of 5.7 and an eye-popping 5% yield.

Alas, the yield may decline later this year if lower earnings force the company to reduce its dividend. Nevertheless, we believe BHP is an excellent value that will be very rewarding in long-term accounts.

Infrastructure Spending Is Likely To Soar

Last week we discussed how President-elect Obama is likely to affect the U.S. economy. He has since announced that one of his first moves will be to boost spending to upgrade and expand America's woefully out-of-date infrastructure. Besides fixing serious problems, the projects will create countless jobs and pump badly needed cash into the economy.

One of the first projects will be to upgrade and expand our antiquated electrical grid. As many readers may have experienced first hand, the system is so strained that large regions of the country have been plunged into darkness due to relatively minor equipment failures.

Another reason the grid must be upgraded is much of it is unable to handle the additional power that will be produced by the new electrical plants that are scheduled to be constructed. Two solar and wind power projects have already been cancelled because the local grids could not handle the extra loads. This bottleneck must be removed before America can solve its energy problems.

Attractive Infrastructure Investments:

One company that is in the catbird's seat to profit from efforts to improve our electrical grid is General Cable (BGC). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BGC As its name suggests, the company is a major producer of high-capacity electrical wires that are used in power transmission systems worldwide. In addition, the company produces wires and cables that are used within electrical plants. Products are also supplied for many industrial applications.

General Cable looks especially attractive because it has been hammered by the slow economy and the stock market plunge. Its price is down 86% from its January high, which is out of proportion to its earnings decline from $1.11 to $1.07. Such an extreme sell-off can only happen during a market panic. When the sell-off ends, General Cable should move back up.

We also like the outlook for Quanta Services (PWR), a company that installs and maintains electric power transmission lines and power distribution networks. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PWR In addition, the company provides many services to the natural gas, telecom, and cable TV industries.

Quanta is also down sharply from the high it reached when the economy was booming. Although the outlook for continued profit growth this year has dimmed considerably, the stock appears to be greatly oversold for its longer term potential.

The Bottom Line This Week

In the current race for the exits, investors are tossing many high quality stocks aside no matter how good their long term prospects may be. Leading companies in the energy, commodity, and infrastructure sectors are especially attractive. However, we continue to urge everyone to buy stocks a little at a time because prices may go lower before they begin to turn around.

Week of 10/02/2008

Research & Editorial Staff — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 16:38:00 GMT

A Nasty, But Not A Calamitous, Stock Plunge
Our Contrary Opinion
A Cure For The Crisis Is Already Being Applied
It's Time To Do Some Cautious Buying
Stock Buyers Should Sip, Not Gulp
The Bottom Line This Week

People who enjoy excitement must envy investors right now. Not even thrill seekers who travel to New Zealand for the world's highest bungee jump have anything on us. When it comes to big bounces, Wall Street is the place to be.

On Monday of this week, we completed the jumping part of the stock market's bungee experience. The rebound on Tuesday was nearly as exhilarating. Wednesday, thank goodness, was a quiet day of recuperation.

Of course the rubber cord could break at any time, in which case the game will be over. However, that seems very unlikely. If a crash was in the works, we think it would have happened on Monday when deep pessimism was rampant.

The market action we are having now is all the more exciting because there was no hint of it last week. The Dow dropped a tepid 2.2% while the Nasdaq just about doubled it with a 4.0% decline. It was barely enough to be a good warm-up for this week's main event.

A Nasty, But Not A Calamitous, Stock Plunge

On Monday, as everyone must know by now, the Dow and the Nasdaq plummeted 778 points and 200 points respectively. Pundits, of course, were quick to point out that the Dow's move was the "biggest stock plunge in history!"

That's true, but as Paul Harvey liked to say, "Heeeeere's the rest of the story:"

In percentage terms the Dow's plunge represented just under a 7% drop. By contrast, the Dow fell 23% on October 19, 1987, which was over three times the size of the hiccup we had this week.

Pundits also gleefully point out that the drop erased all the gains stocks made in the past eight years. Well, that's also true. However, eight years ago was the top of the tech and dot-com bubbles, which was hardly a proper place to begin a measurement. If we start from the market's bottom after the bubbles burst, stocks are up nearly 40%, plunge and all.

Our Contrary Opinion

Many articles about the financial crisis predict it will lead to a near-total meltdown of the U.S. economy. Credit will be unavailable, business will grind to a halt, consumers will stop spending money, and civilization as we know it will end. It's about the darkest outlook possible.

For such a scenario, the Monday-Tuesday stock decline seems mild. If the world is really in as much trouble as so many dire projections suggest, a much larger drop would have been likely. Either the outlook for the economy isn't anywhere near as bad as many writers believe, or investors don't understand the gravity of the problem.

We doubt the latter is the case. On the contrary, history shows that investors have a much better grasp of the future than professionals. That's not surprising because investors put money on their predictions, which tends to focus the mind.

Lastly, if we look at the market action on Monday and Tuesday together, we have another reason not to take poison. Our arithmetic shows the 778 point drop and the 485 point rebound left us with a 293 point decline, which was far from a disaster.

A Cure For The Crisis Is Already Being Applied

We are not in any way suggesting that the financial turmoil isn't serious. It is the most threatening event we have seen in many years. But we think Congress and market forces will restructure our financial system without killing the American dream.

In fact, the process has already started. In January, the Fed arranged for Bank of America to acquire Countrywide. Six months later BOA took over Merrill Lynch. In March, JP Morgan Chase was persuaded to rescue Bear Stearns.

Earlier this month, Uncle Ben Bernanke also paired JP Morgan Chase with Washington Mutual. On Monday of this week, Citigroup took over Wachovia. More "strategic alliances" are undoubtedly on the way, particularly with regional banks that are also having liquidity problems.

Even before the financial crisis hit, banking insiders predicted that a wave of consolidation was on the way. Guess who was expected to lead the charge? The list was headed by none other than Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and Citigroup. Recent events simply appear to have accelerated the buyout cycle. It also gave the buyers much better prices.

It's Time To Do Some Cautious Buying

Speaking of better prices, the best time to buy stocks is when everybody else wants to sell them. As uber-investor Warren Buffett once said, "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy, and to be greedy only when others are fearful." He went on to say, "You must have a willingness to do something when everyone else is petrified. You must learn the lesson of following logic over emotion."

With the advice of "The Sage Of Omaha" in mind, we suggest that you consider the following blood-in-the-streets investments:

Financial Services

The low prices the large financial service firms paid for their acquisitions should lead to king-sized profits once the current troubles are over. But, with the financial crisis dominating the headlines, the leading bank companies are currently dirt cheap.

As a result, we are even more bullish on the long-term outlook for the Fidelity Select Financial Services Fund (FIDSX). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FIDSX Remember, this is a managed fund, which means its portfolio will hone in on the winners as they emerge. The fund already holds substantial positions in Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup. All of them are in the Wall Street doghouse because they also purchased many bad mortgages and ran into trouble. But the surviving banks are now starting to make up for their mistakes.

The Fidelity fund is down 46.5% from its October 2007 high, and it is off 26.2% this year. We think the steep discount makes the fund attractive for long-term portfolios. It should be a particularly good performer in retirement accounts.

Bond Funds

Bond funds also look good. On Monday, market psychologist Brett Steenbarger of TraderFeed (www.traderfeed.blogspot.com) pointed out that the iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (LQD) lost 20% of its value over the past three weeks. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LQD Investors are worried that the companies whose bonds are in the fund will not be able to make their interest payments. We think that threat is greatly overstated for investment grade bonds.

To see how irrational bond fears have become, the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG) is also down 20%. It's ridiculous to price the two very different classes of bonds the same way. It's all the more reason to think the investment grade fund is a classic case of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater.

Multinational Blue Chips

We will also repeat our recommendation of the iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY) that tracks the 100 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Total Market Index. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DVY&t=1y

When investors start to tiptoe back into the market following a scare, the first place they go is to high-yielding blue chip stocks. As a result, big stocks should be especially good performers at the same time they offer investors a high degree of safety.

Stock Buyers Should Sip, Not Gulp

If you decide to do some cautious bottom fishing, please proceed slowly. The financial crisis is far from over. We may see several more scares in the coming weeks. If you hold some cash back from your first venture into the market, you may see even better prices later on.

In any event, the best investment strategy during times of great turmoil is to buy a little bit after every significant market decline. That will leave your ultimate returns far higher than will be true for people who chase the rallies.

The Bottom Line This Week

The past three weeks have not been much fun. However, Mother Market has a way of rewarding investors who stick with her system over the long term. The greatest returns go to people who find the courage to buy stocks when they are out of favor and they are the least expensive, as is the case today.

Three investments that currently look very attractive are the Fidelity Select Financial Services Fund, the iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund, and the iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index. All of them have been top performers in the past, and they will almost certainly be top performers in the future.

AIA Advocate for Absolute Returns : Stock Prices

Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 06/25/2009

Mixed Economic Signals Worry Investors

Another Kind Of Bailout Is Also A Concern

A New Economic Reality Is Emerging

For Efficient Companies, Slow Growth Can Be Profitable

Your Best Strategy Now

THREE ANALYSTS AND A FOOL HAVE RECOMMENDED THIS STOCK

The Bottom Line This Week

Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 11/20/2008

Stocks Search For A BottomHigh Energy Prices Will ReturnCommodities Will Also ReboundInfrastructure Spending Is Likely To SoarThe Bottom Line This Week

Stocks Search For A Bottom

High Energy Prices Will Return

Commodities Will Also Rebound

Infrastructure Spending Is Likely To Soar

The Bottom Line This Week

Week of 10/02/2008

A Nasty, But Not A Calamitous, Stock PlungeOur Contrary OpinionA Cure For The Crisis Is Already Being AppliedIt's Time To Do Some Cautious BuyingStock Buyers Should Sip, Not GulpThe Bottom Line This Week

A Nasty, But Not A Calamitous, Stock Plunge

Our Contrary Opinion

A Cure For The Crisis Is Already Being Applied

It's Time To Do Some Cautious Buying

Stock Buyers Should Sip, Not Gulp

The Bottom Line This Week

Stocks Search For A Bottom
High Energy Prices Will Return
Commodities Will Also Rebound
Infrastructure Spending Is Likely To Soar
The Bottom Line This Week

A Nasty, But Not A Calamitous, Stock Plunge
Our Contrary Opinion
A Cure For The Crisis Is Already Being Applied
It's Time To Do Some Cautious Buying
Stock Buyers Should Sip, Not Gulp
The Bottom Line This Week