AIA Advocate for Absolute Returns : Real Estate

Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 05/28/2009

Research & Editorial Staff — Thu, 28 May 2009 14:08:00 GMT

Is The Economy Finally Turning Around?
Companies With Cheap Eats Are Doing Well
China's Economy Is Still Hot (Compared With Everybody Else)
Energy Investments Are Looking Good Again
The Bottom Line This Week

The stock market rally that started on March 9 is proving to have longer legs than even the most optimistic investors dared hope. Through the end of May, the S&P 500 was up 30 percent even though the economy was continuing to decline.

Over the past month, however, the market's performance suggests that the rally may be getting short of breath. Since our last newsletter, the Dow gained an unremarkable 1.1% and the Nasdaq barely rose 0.7%. It remains to be seen if stocks will get a second wind and run for another few laps, of if a correction is on the way.

If history is any guide, the market's next move is more likely to be down than up. Not only is a 30% gain without a break unusual, summers are often slow on Wall Street. To be sure, rallies sometimes come along during the three month period but large surges don't usually arrive until after Labor Day. Shrinks think it has something to do with humans having an innate urge to stock up (pun intended) when cooler days remind them that winter is on the way.

Is The Economy Finally Turning Around?

The biggest stock market engine of all, of course, is the economy which has not been winning any medals of late. In fact, nearly all the leading indicators are still slipping. Housing prices, for example, dropped 19% in the first quarter, and jobs are continuing to disappear. There is a long and dismal list of negatives.

On the other hand, most indices are sliding less quickly than they did a few weeks ago. Optimists see the not-so-bad numbers as proof that the recession is finally coming to an end.

We are inclined to agree with the optimists, but we think a recovery will probably be more modest than they expect. A few problems are headed our way that will probably keep the rebound party from getting too lively.

The first hurdle is a commercial real estate crunch that seems likely to hit later this year. In several cities, a few skyscrapers that were once humming with activity have lost so many tenants their owners can't make the payments. As is true when Ma and Pa Kettle get behind a few months, the former high rollers are also getting the boot. There is so much vacant commercial space available, this market won't turn around anytime soon.

Many once bustling shopping malls are also in trouble. When Joe and Sally MidAmerica got their pink slips, they had a revelation: spend less money. What a concept. The result is lean times for retailers – especially those that sell overpriced glitter goods instead of affordable necessities. One bright spot is consumer confidence is rising.

Manufacturing is in no better shape than retailing. There is a connection between the two that people learn in economics classes at Harvard: if nobody buys stuff, nobody needs to replace it.

However, manufacturing should begin to pick up a bit this fall. The dollar has been dropping in value over the past few weeks which will make U.S. products more competitive overseas. The technology sector is already seeing an increase in foreign orders.

Speaking of Joe and Sally, many recent homebuyers who have been keeping their lenders happy may not be able to do so much longer. The people who are in trouble took out option mortgages that allowed them to pay whatever their incomes could afford for the first few years. The flexible terms were like winning a lottery for home buyers of modest means who realized they could live in a McMansion on a single-wide income.

Now the mortgage grace periods are running out and the option mortgage crowd will need to pay full freight each month. Many of them won't be able to do it, which will put more pressure on the housing industry.

All in all, there don't appear to be any big engines of growth that will do much more than lift the economy off the floor this year. Nevertheless, even modest growth will beat the sinking numbers we have now.

The bottom line is, there is reason for cautious optimism, but celebrate with domestic bubbly.

Companies With Cheap Eats Are Doing Well

Every problem creates opportunities for companies that happen to be in the right business. In the current situation, companies that supply necessities for the least amount of money are in the catbird's seat. Since the economy is likely to remain slow for quite some time, the winning suppliers should continue to prosper.

Leading the list of companies with the right stuff are those that provide inexpensive foods to the countless people who need to watch their pennies.

The fortunate suppliers are led by ConAgra Foods (CAG) that supplies a cornucopia of packaged foods throughout the U.S. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CAG The company's brands include Chef Boyardee, Egg Beaters, Healthy Choice, Hebrew National (great hot dogs), Hunts, Peter Pan, Rosarita, Van Camps, Marie Callenders, Parkay, Wesson, and a host of others. ConAgra also produces many private label foods for large retailers.

ConAgra's stock is beginning to move up as investors see how well it is doing in today's difficult economy. However, the yield is still an attractive 4.1% which indicates the stock is still attractive.

One step down the price ladder – which is an advantage now - is Hormel Foods (HRL). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HRL The company is profiting from booming sales of Spam, Hormel Chili, Dinty Moore Beef Stew, and several shelf-stable microwave foods. To capitalize on its good fortune, the company just converted a new processing plant to turn out the low-cost foods that are in highest demand. Profits rose 4% in the first quarter, which is remarkable in a weak economy with high unemployment.

Our old favorites, Colgate Palmolive (CL) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CL and Procter & Gamble (PG) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PG are also doing well. Both companies provide health, beauty, and homecare products worldwide. The companies are benefiting from the stronger economies that exist in many of its markets.

Colgate Palmolive and Procter & Gamble make a good pair for investors. Although their product lines overlap, Colgate has more low-priced basics that are ideally suited for current economic conditions. Procter & Gamble leans a bit towards higher end products that should have greater appeal as the economic siege lifts later this year.

The five investments we recommended last month are continuing to March forward. Their prices may drop back a bit before they resume course, but long term investors should hold on to them. Here's the scorecard:

China's Economy Is Still Hot (Compared With Everybody Else)

One country that is bucking the global economic recession is China. Although growth has fallen from its recent double digit highs, the country is still chugging along at a respectable 6.1% rate. That's higher than many experts expected since China's export business is linked to the economic health of its customers.

It turns out that the experts were so focused on exports, they underestimated the rapid growth of China's internal market. With at least 1.2 billion people, China can consume much of what it produces itself. That's especially true since the Chinese people have more money to spend than ever before, and they want to live large.

We are particularly bullish on the long-term prospects for China Mobile (CHL). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=CHL Cellular service may seem like a luxury that people will drop during an economic slowdown. But that's not the case in China where mobile services are more important than in most countries. In much of China, landline telecom links are frequently of poor quality, and are often not available at all. Consequently, much of the population relies on cellular-based communication and Internet services.

China Mobile now has a staggering 457 million subscribers. That's about 150 million more people than the entire population of the U.S. Nevertheless, the company has yet to capture as much as half of its potential market share.

There's another indication of the continuing economic boom in China...and we're talking about the boom in domestic Chinese travel and tourism that we have observed.

As China transitions from poverty to affluence, an increasing number of the Chinese population are actively looking to enjoy their new-found middle-class status.

And one of the ways they are spending their money is on travel – taking vacations and seeing more of their vast country as well as traveling more on business.

The Great Wall of China remains one of the most popular tourist destinations in the world. Meanwhile, the number of people visiting Taiwan from mainland China has nearly doubled during the past 24 months ... and China's domestic tourism industry has grown 22.6% annually for the past 5 years.

We're certainly bullish on the Chinese travel and tourism market ... and in particular, on one of China's fastest-growing travel services companies... Universal Travel Group.

Universal Travel Group has been trading on the Bulletin Board, but starting Thursday, May 28, it will be trading on the NYSE Amex under the symbol "UTA."

Universal Travel specializes in online and customer representative services. The Company offers packaged tours, air ticketing, hotel reservation and air cargo agency services. They racked up some great numbers from 2005 through 2008: 202% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) ... they have no long-term debt ... $16.2 million in cash ... $30.2 million in working capital... and earnings of $14.5 million for the full year ending 12/31/08.

By our calculations, they have earned $1.20 ttm, and at a closing price of $7.00 on 5/27/09, they are trading under a 6 P/E multiple. Comparable industry multiples range from 22 to 28...so Universal Travel has a lot of upward potential. Go to http://cnutg.ir.stockpr.com/ for more details.

Energy Investments Are Looking Good Again

The last time we filled up our gas tanks we noticed that our local service station didn't get the word that a recession is in progress. Instead of lowering prices, they went up about 25%. Most energy insiders think the uptrend will continue, especially if the economy improves.

We think the best way to profit from the rebound is with ExxonMobil (XOM), the world's largest energy supplier. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XOM The company produces both oil and natural gas, much of which it turns into petrochemicals, fertilizers, plastics, and other products. ExxonMobil also has interests in electrical plants that are fueled with XOM's energy.

Despite ExxonMobil's leading position in its industry, the stock still carries a low P/E of 9.5. That looks very attractive to us.

The Bottom Line This Week

The economic outlook continues to improve fractionally, which has been fueling the stock market rally. At this point, however, stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves since the economic rebound is unlikely to be strong. As a result, a correction is probably on the way.

Nevertheless, many stocks should do well longer term because they can squeeze profits from a slow economy. Among the fortunate few are ConAgra Foods, Hormel Foods, Colgate Palmolive, and Procter & Gamble. Due to their unique market niches, China Mobile, Universal Travel Group and ExxonMobil should also have prosperous futures.

Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 03/26/2009

Research & Editorial Staff — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 13:45:00 GMT

In This Issue:

Banks And Auto Stocks Led The Way Down, And Now Up
Yes, The Rebound Could Be Another Bear Trap
If There Ever Was A Time To Use Stops, It’s Now!
In Many Cities, Real Estate May Be Set To Rise
The Bottom Line

Over the past month, the stock market staged a strong reversal as the Dow and the Nasdaq rose 6.9% and 9.1% respectively. As often happens when investment optimism begins to replace a long period of pessimism, small stocks did better than their larger cousins.

However, many blue chips also performed very well. For example, our first three picks from last month, JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), and Ford (F) jumped 21.5%, 5.3%, and 42.3% respectively. Our fourth pick, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), dropped 2.4%.

Banks And Auto Stocks Led The Way Down, And Now Up

The sharp jump made by JP Morgan Chase was not an isolated event in the battered banking sector. Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) saw equally impressive gains of 19.4%, 40.2%, and 15.3%.

The best return of all was made by American International Group (AIG), a company we didn’t recommend because it carries too much risk. Over the past 30 days, however, many big investors unexpectedly reversed their outlooks for AIG and the stock jumped from $0.46 to $1.22 - a 165.2% leap.

We think the banks are still greatly undervalued and are likely to rebound more from their horrific plunges. The road back will be volatile because progress will depend largely on the success of the government’s bailout programs.

Nevertheless, at today’s ultra-low stock prices the risk/reward ratio appears to justify taking small positions in Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo. Fortunately, a small investment is all anyone needs to get positions in what could be the biggest rebound story of our time.

Of the three additional banks that could become top performers, Citigroup is in the worst shape. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=C Bank of America is in somewhat better condition. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BAC One or both of them may fail. However, there are strong political as well as economic reasons for the government not to let that happen. But, if the bailouts don’t work and Washington ends up nationalizing the banks, the shareholders will be wiped out.

Wells Fargo is a better prospect. The bank will benefit from the possible demise of Citigroup and/or Bank of America because it would pick up much of their business. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WFC Even without that boost, Wells Fargo should survive the recession and the housing plunge, and begin to recover once conditions improve.

AIG must be considered a rank speculation, which we would normally never mention. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AIG But at $1.20 or so, we believe AIG’s potential to jump on good news is very good. If you want to add a little spice to your life, 100 shares of AIG should do the trick.

In the automotive industry, we continue to think that Ford has the best chance for a profitable recovery. As with the banks, a small position appears to make sense at today’s low price.

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) continues to look good because it is a hedge against rising inflation and a declining dollar. Both conditions seem more likely to occur than they did last month because the Fed just decided to create $300 billion out of thin air to buy Treasury bonds. We think the make believe money will come back to haunt us within a few months.

Yes, The Rebound Could Be Another Bear Trap

Over the past year we warned that the many rebounds that came along looked like bear traps. In every case we were right. After a few days or weeks of moving up, the market suddenly reversed direction and tumbled to new lows. The same thing could happen again this time.

But even if this rally isn’t the lasting rebound we have all been hoping for, there are some solid reasons to think it could last longer than its predecessors. If so, the rally could be profitable even if it ultimately falls apart.

The first reason for optimism is the market had already fallen 54% when the current upturn began. That’s about as bad as bear markets get. Even if the bear returns for one more raid on stocks, he probably won’t have much further to go.

Secondly, fundamentals are also beginning to reach bear market lows. Many top-quality blue chip stocks now have P/E ratios under 10, which has often been a turning point in the past. Since interest rates are on the floor, low P/E stocks that pay good dividends are especially attractive this time around.

If There Ever Was A Time To Use Stops, It’s Now!

Because there is no way to know if the current stock market rebound is another bear trap or the beginning of a new bull cycle, you may be tempted to stay on the sidelines until the matter is settled.

But if you take the safest position and this rally turns out to be the real deal, you will miss out on its biggest gains. That’s because anywhere from 30% to 50% of a bull market’s returns often occur before most investors realize the turn has finally come.

Fortunately, you can buy stocks with reasonable safety if you place stop loss orders on everything you pick. If the stocks go up as expected, you can raise your stops as you go along. That way if the bear comes back, you will be taken out before much damage can be done.

Remember, stops are very easy to place. To use TD Ameritrade as an example, right after you buy a stock you would enter a sell order at the price you would want to be taken out. When you see “Order Type”, simply click “Stop Market” and enter the appropriate number. Since stops cost nothing until they are executed (which might never happen), they are the cheapest insurance you can buy.

There are only two downsides with stop loss orders that you should know about. First, if the market makes a big down move and then bounces back, you may be sold out when you would have been better off hanging on. Secondly, if the market drops very rapidly and hits your stop, by the time the order is executed the price may have dropped below your sell point. Alas, not much on Wall Street carries a 100% guarantee.

In Many Cities, Real Estate May Be Set To Rise

All the activity in the stock market of late is masking some improving numbers in the housing market. Although the real estate outlook overall is still poor, in some areas prices for rental residential properties have fallen so far that for the first time in nearly 20 years they can “pencil out.” That is to say, the rents they generate can cover the mortgage payments, taxes and maintenance costs – plus provide a positive cash flow to the buyer.

The tax breaks that go with real estate investments —and the potential for long-term appreciation from today’s depressed levels— make real estate even more attractive. In addition, the collapse of the late great housing boom is pushing many new people into the rental market.

As with the stock market, it may be a decade or more before residential real estate gets back to where it was during the boom. But you won’t need a full recovery to make excellent profits. Thanks to the leverage in most real estate investments, only a partial rebound could still double your money.

For example, if you buy a $300,000 duplex with a 20% down payment, the deal will cost you $60,000. Your duplex would only need to appreciate to $360,000 for you to double your money. Meanwhile, the renters will pay the bills.

One way to enter the rental residential real estate market is with experienced partners. In most communities there are groups of people who have been buying properties together for many years. With more attractive deals becoming available, and with credit now very tight, many partnerships should be happy to accept new members. Your attorney, or a seasoned real estate broker, should be able to make the necessary introductions.

The Bottom Line

Investors have been through the mill during the past year. However, we think the disheartening losses paved the way for a dramatic rebound. The upturn may be starting now, or it may not come until later – but it’s on the way. To make the most of it, you will need to put money in the market while most investors are too nervous to leave the sidelines.

Your safest bets are the blue chip stocks we have been recommending for months. More aggressive investors should also consider some of the oversold banking stocks that have been performing well of late. Although the risks are high with the banks, we think the potential rewards are even higher. You can stack the odds further in your favor by using stop loss orders religiously.

Residential rental real estate is also starting to look good in many markets. Ignore the naysayers who suggest that there is no money to be made because it may be ten or fifteen years before prices return to their 2006/2007 highs. As we explained in our discussion, you don’t need a big rebound to make a good real estate investment pay off handsomely.

Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 01/22/2009

Research & Editorial Staff — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 16:29:00 GMT

In This Issue:

Credit Rebound Coming From Unexpected Sources
Signs Of Life Are Returning To Some Real Estate Markets
A Home Town Advantage With Stocks
Forget The Bottom, Focus On Value
Two Leading Stocks Look Especially Good Right Now
The Bottom Line This Week

As the inauguration of the new American president approached, many analysts expected the market would have an "Obama bounce." Alas, that happy event did not occur. On the contrary, as further economic and banking industry worries continued to mount last week, the Dow and the Nasdaq dropped another 3.7% and 2.7% respectively.

The market fell another 332 points on Tuesday, when our new president took office. (Nothing personal, Mr. Obama. As the Godfather used to say, "it's just business.")

On Wednesday, however, the mood brightened and the market rebounded 279 points.

Credit Rebound Coming From Unexpected Sources

It isn't working out the way most economists expected, but the slow credit recovery is not coming from the big banks that have been receiving billions of dollars in bailout money. Those funds are simply replacing money that was lost during the period of fiscal madness.

Instead, smaller banks that didn't play subprime roulette, and don't need taxpayer's money, are starting to write checks to their more credit-worthy customers. Lending standards are stricter than they were during the go-go years that recently ended, but that's as it should be.

Banks are also reviewing business proposals with greater scrutiny. Lenders must be convinced that each idea has a good chance of being successful, which is also a return to sanity.

The bottom line is, if you have been holding fire on a business venture that would seem to fit the new criteria, this should be a good time to start contacting banks again.

Signs Of Life Are Returning To Some Real Estate Markets

Slowly rebounding credit couldn't be coming at a more opportune time. Some real estate markets are slowly starting to turn around. As we have been predicting for months, prices have fallen so far in many areas that many people who need a home are making their moves. Mortgage rates that are well below 5% are also attracting buyers.

Some of the biggest sales increases are occurring in our largest cities. In New York, for example, many condos that cost $1 million or so a year ago are now in the $500k to $600k range. For many people with good jobs, the bargains are proving to be too good to pass up.

Although it will probably be a year or more before the broader real estate market starts to recover, there are new signs of life in many of them as well. In Las Vegas, for example, home prices from last year are down 28%, but home sales are up 15%. In many other parts of the country, bidding wars are starting to take place for foreclosed homes that are being dumped by unhappy banks.

In some markets, real estate prices will probably continue to fall. In others, however, the most likely change will be on the upside. If you have been thinking about making a real estate investment, this might be a good time to start looking. This may be a sweet spot where price, interest rates, credit availability, and market potential all come together.

A Home Town Advantage With Stocks

It isn't only with real estate investments where locals are in a unique position to find top values. The same is also true with stocks. No Wall Street analyst can know as much about how a company is really doing than a local person who keeps his eyes and ears open.

Wal-Mart and Microsoft are two classic cases in point. In 1970 when Wall Street was cool about Wal-Mart's prospects, many people in Bentonville, AR noticed that the company was hiring. Passersby could also see that Wal-Mart's loading docks were bustling with activity. Local investors who trusted what they heard and saw above what the analysts were saying, ended up making a great deal of money.

Similarly in the 1980's, Bellevue, WA restaurants were buzzing with jabber by Microsoft employees who were excited about all the software they were writing and selling. Employees also said that their young boss, Bill Gates, was the smartest man they'd ever met. It would be an understatement to say that Bellevue investors who acted on what they heard are very glad they did.

It can be just as useful to be close by if a local company gets into trouble. A few years ago in Junction City, OR people noticed that employees at Country Coach Motor Homes were becoming worried about their jobs long before anyone on Wall Street knew anything was wrong. Alert investors who bailed out of the parent company, National RV, saved a great deal of money.

Forget The Bottom, Focus On Value

With both stocks and real estate, we urge readers to avoid trying to call the bottom of the markets. Instead, focus on investments that are attractively priced. If it becomes an even better bargain in a few weeks or months, it won't have any effect on your ability to make a profit at the price you paid.

Dan Ferris, editor of Extreme Value said it best: "Value isn't about hoping share prices go up, and it certainly isn't about attempting to predict the lowest share price. It's about knowing what a business is worth and paying a substantially lower amount than that." http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pub/evi/?gclid=CPT45NGVnpgCFQwxawodXxWLlQ

Of the many successful stock and real estate investors we know, only one claims to have gotten into his best performers at the absolute bottom. The other clients made their money by simply making good investments whenever they could be found.

Two Leading Stocks Look Especially Good Right Now

Speaking of Microsoft (MSFT), the economy and stock market turned two of the company's disappointments into an asset last year. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MSFT

As you may recall, in 2008 Microsoft made expensive bids for Yahoo and Facebook, but both deals fell through. Not only did that fortunate "failure" save Microsoft from suffering big losses when the stock market plunged, it also left the company with over $19 billion in cash.

Microsoft, of course, may use the market weakness to make another try for its two targets, which are now priced much lower than before. Alternately, Microsoft might make another one-time dividend boost to its shareholders, just as it did in 2004. If so, the true yield of the stock will be much higher than the 2.6% that it carries today.

Besides the cash hoard, Microsoft's ability to make strategic acquisitions, and its yield potential, the company's price looks very attractive. Microsoft was selling for $35 at this time last year. It is now just $18.50. That looks like a bargain to us.

If reliable dividend growth is one of your goals this year, (and it should be) we recommend an old favorite of ours, Procter & Gamble (PG). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PG The stock "only" yields 2.8% at present, but that's more than many of Uncle Sam's bonds are paying.

However, the real appeal of the company's dividends is that they have been increased for 52 consecutive years. That's a rock solid track record that the company is unlikely to change.

In addition, Procter & Gamble just announced that it is about to begin its most ambitious manufacturing expansion. The company is making the move to further capture business in emerging markets that are already delivering double digit growth. We think the decision will lead to much higher profits within a few years.

If you look at Procter & Gamble's low stock price, its dividend outlook, and the company's new global initiative, we think you get a very strong case for buying the stock.

The Bottom Line This Week

Inch by inch and flicker by flicker, the economic outlook is giving investors reasons to be hopeful. Although we are sticking with our prediction that the recession will continue to rage for several months, we also believe we will begin to see some relief late this year.

That's not to say that Joe and Sally MidAmerica will be out of the woods anytime soon. Life will probably remain tough for quite some time. However, many businesses are continuing to adjust to the new conditions and should start to rebuild their profits by the 4^th quarter.

Meanwhile, many of the most promising stocks –and some real estate deals- look very attractive. Among the former, Microsoft and Procter & Gamble look especially promising. In some real estate markets, homes and apartment buildings are also starting to pencil out.

AIA Advocate for Absolute Returns : Real Estate

Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 05/28/2009

Is The Economy Finally Turning Around?

Companies With Cheap Eats Are Doing Well

China's Economy Is Still Hot (Compared With Everybody Else)

Energy Investments Are Looking Good Again

The Bottom Line This Week

Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 03/26/2009

Banks And Auto Stocks Led The Way Down, And Now Up

Yes, The Rebound Could Be Another Bear Trap

If There Ever Was A Time To Use Stops, It’s Now!

In Many Cities, Real Estate May Be Set To Rise

The Bottom Line

Association of Investor Awareness - Week of 01/22/2009

Credit Rebound Coming From Unexpected Sources Signs Of Life Are Returning To Some Real Estate Markets A Home Town Advantage With Stocks Forget The Bottom, Focus On Value Two Leading Stocks Look Especially Good Right Now The Bottom Line This Week

Credit Rebound Coming From Unexpected Sources

Signs Of Life Are Returning To Some Real Estate Markets

A Home Town Advantage With Stocks

Forget The Bottom, Focus On Value

Two Leading Stocks Look Especially Good Right Now

The Bottom Line This Week

Credit Rebound Coming From Unexpected Sources
Signs Of Life Are Returning To Some Real Estate Markets
A Home Town Advantage With Stocks
Forget The Bottom, Focus On Value
Two Leading Stocks Look Especially Good Right Now
The Bottom Line This Week