Blogs

  • Capital Formation and the Fiscal Cliff

    In today's economic environment, we often complain about volatility and uncertainty, but there is one thing I think we can be fairly certain of: taxes are going up. I constantly try to impress upon my kids, most of whom are now adults, that ideas and actions have consequences. In today's letter we will look at some of the consequences of an increase in taxes. Please note that this is different from arguing whether taxes should rise or fall. For all intents and purposes that debate is over. As investors, our job is to deal with reality. We must play the hand we are dealt. Taxation is a complex issue, but let's see if a few word pictures can help us understand what we face.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 11-26-2012
  • The Geopolitics Of China

    No matter where in the world I am, in South Africa, in Europe, in La Jolla, there's one question I get asked over and over, "What about China?" And small wonder. The increasing impact of China in the last generation is just staggering and seemingly accelerating every day. If you're in the market for oil, minerals, arable land, equities or debt, you're bidding against Chinese government-sponsored entities with a $1 trillion warchest. And the list of markets where China is a key player grows every day. Bottom line: whether you're filling up your gas tank or trading credit default swaps, China's decisions impact your pocket book....
  • US Birth Rate Hits New Low – A Nation of Singles

    Today’s OTB is not directly about the economy or investment, but rather about a key demographic shift that will certainly have a major effect on both. I have a somewhat different take on the shift than our author, my very-long-time friend Gary D. Halbert (founder of ProFutures and former business partner from the ’90s); and I will be writing about this next year. There is a significant transformation going on in my thinking about how the political world in the US (and, I suspect, much of Europe as well) impacts the economy.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 12-21-2012
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  • The Effects of ObamaCare

    What will be the effects of ObamaCare? My friend Lisa Cummings, an expert on employee benefits (she was one of the first employees at Dell and was a senior exec at Wal-Mart), has analyzed the bill; and from what she tells me it appears to be one big pile of unintended consequences and costs. It will be far cheaper for an employer to simply pay the $2,000 fine and pay for the employee to enroll in the government health exchange program, which of course puts more cost on the taxpayer. Behind the curtain of wonderful and laudable objectives is a mountain of regulations and costs. But that is what is coming. I asked Lisa to give me a written report on just the more important changes and costs, and that is your Outside the Box reading today.

    Lisa Cummings is an expert global benefits consultant with an emphasis on advising Fortune 500 companies of best practices regarding plan design and legal compliance. She is an ERISA attorney by training and has a rich experience with health and retirement plans in the US and around the world. For more information, you may contact her at lcummings@benefitsconnection.co. Many thanks, Lisa, for taking the time out of your busy schedule.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 11-08-2010
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  • The End Game Draws Nigh - The Future Evolution of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio

    Nearly everyone I talk with has the sense that we are at some critical point in our economic and national paths, not just in the US but in the world. One path will lead us back to relative growth and another set of choices leads us down a path which will put a very real drag on economic growth and recovery. For most of us, there is very little we can do (besides vote and lobby) about the actual choices. What we can do is adjust our personal portfolios to be synchronized with the direction of the economy. The question is 'What will that direction be?'

    Today we are going to look at what I think is a very clear roadmap given to us by Dr. Woody Brock, the head of Strategic Economic Decisions and one of the smartest analysts I have come in contact with over the years. This week's Outside the Box is his recent essay, 'The End Games Draws Nigh.' For those who have the contacts in government, I urge you to put this piece into the correct hands so that Woody's very distinct message gets out. I think this is one of the most important Outside the Box letters I have sent out....
  • Dealing with Nigeria’s Jihadist Threat

    About 10 days ago I sat at breakfast in Lomé, the capital of Togo, a sliver of a country in West Africa, watching French TV news of the capture, and what turned out to be false reports of the liberation, of seven French tourists in northern Cameroon...
    Posted to Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) by Charles Krakoff on 03-07-2013
  • 2010 Investment Strategies: Six Areas To Buy, 11 Areas To Sell

    This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible. Gary was among the first to point out the problems with the subprime market and predict the housing and credit crises. His track record in this decade has been quite good. I want to thank Gary and his associate Fred Rossi for allowing us to view this smaller version of his latest letter....
  • Avoiding IRA Inheritance Disasters

    IRAs are supposed to be simple, but when it comes to inheritance IRAs are more complicated than most people realize. It is not unusual for IRA heirs to misunderstand some key rules. A wrong move or two triggers high taxes, often causing most of the IRA...
  • The Road To Revulsion

    What does a bubble look like and how do they end? In this week's Outside the Box, James Montier of Societe Generale in London looks at not only the psychological analysis, but also at the propensity for commentators to continually proclaim the end of the problem and a resumption of business as usual. He includes a fascinating piece from Marc Faber documenting the various quotes about how well the economy was doing from 1928-32. This makes for fun, if a little sobering, reading. I think you will find this letter very interesting....
  • Dos and Don'ts of IRA Investing

    Many people own substantial IRAs and have the bulk of their investment portfolios in IRAs. Some of these investors might not realize there are investments that are prohibited from IRAs and others are allowed but incur tax penalties. The issue of how to...
  • Dead Men Walking

    Last Friday's letter was about the fact that it is not just Freddie and Fannie. There are other problems. The Weekend Edition and today's Wall Street Journal are filled with stories about the problems with Freddie and Fannie. The assumption in so many quarters is that they will soon need government assistance. The only questions seem to be when and in what form? Can this wait until a new president is in place? Congress is leaving town soon. Can it wait until the lame duck session? As I have been writing for well over a year, the cr4edit crisis is going to be deeper and take longer to correct than the main stream media and economists think. Losses at banks are going to be much larger, and they are going to bleed for a long time. That means we are going to see more banks failing. Bennet Sedacca, who I quoted in last week's letter, sent out a new letter this morning, providing a list of stocks he thinks may also be in trouble, his "Dead Men Walking" list. He also notes several banks that will be the beneficiaries of the crisis as they gobble up weak competitors....
  • The Room – 05/01/2009

    I am writing you in some haste this morning, fueled both by what may be an overdose of espresso and a general lack of sleep due to fulfilling my responsibilities as the managing editor of The Casey Report, the final copy deadline for which is inconveniently today.

    In the interest of not being discovered face down on my desk, a spilled cup of coffee dripping onto the floor, I'm going to take a few shortcuts in preparing this week’s edition of The Room. Namely, relying on other members of the Casey team, as well as our impressive ranks of correspondents, to fill in some holes. I think you'll be happy with the result.

    First, however, a quick word or two is in order about the Chrysler bankruptcy. In last week's edition of this somewhat manic missive, I opined that Chrysler’s bankruptcy was now both inevitable and imminent. Further, I wrote about the proceedings, which have the U.S. Treasury deeply involved in structuring the bankruptcy......
  • The Gods Must Be Angry: Olympics to Drop Wrestling

    Slavish obedience to tradition is never a good thing, but neither is its wanton disregard. So what are we to make of the recent announcement by the International Olympic Committee that wrestling, one of the original sports in both the ancient and modern...
    Posted to Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) by Charles Krakoff on 02-21-2013
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  • Long-Term Outlook: Slow Growth And Deflation

    This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible. Gary was among the first to point out the problems with the subprime market and predict the housing and credit crises. You can learn more about his letter at http://www.agaryshilling.com. If you want to subscribe (for $275), you can call 888-346-7444. Tell them that you read about it in Outside the Box and you will get not only his recent 2009 forecast issue with the year's investment themes, but an extra issue with his 2010 forecast (of course, that one will not come out for a year. Gary is good but not that good!) I trust you are enjoying your week. And enjoy this week's Outside the Box....

    And if you have cable and get Fox Business News, I will be on Happy Hour tomorrow Tuesday the 17th at 5 pm Eastern. Have a great week....
  • The Most Powerful Bank You've Never Heard Of

    You know banks like Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, etc. You read about the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), even if you're not quite sure what they do (not to worry--they're a little confused, too). And you're...
    Posted to What We Now Know by Doug Casey on 03-07-2006
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