Blogs

  • More weasel dick political BS

    The Market Technical The indices (DJIA 12270, S&P 1314) basically treaded water yesterday; so they remained within their intermediate term up trends (11856-15278, 1245-1674) and their short term trading range (11554-12405, 1247-1345). The S&P...
    Posted to Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing by Steve Cook on 04-14-2011
  • Flu Season Part II: Much Ado about Nothing?

    For the first time in years, Americans are not afraid of terror attacks. That would be good news, if it weren't for the simple fact that the al- Qaeda scare has been (temporarily) outmatched by another: The flu. A nationwide panic has erupted since...
    Posted to What We Now Know by Doug Casey on 11-01-2004
  • Can the U.S. Win in Iraq?

    We certainly don't claim to be clairvoyant, but sometimes we just can't resist the old "I told you so." Here's an article from the very first edition of What We Now Know, week of 11/17/2003. Can the U.S. Win in Iraq? By David Galland...
    Posted to What We Now Know by David Galland on 09-04-2007
  • Silver Begins To Show Signs Of A Shortage.

    In This Issue.

    * Petrol Currencies up.

    * Global Growth currencies down.

    * FOMC meeting minutes today. UGH!

    * Euro pops over 1.13 briefly .

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 10-08-2015
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  • Someone More Negative About Japan Than Chuck?

    In This Issue.

    * More currencies on the rally tracks today.

    * Why would traders move currencies up, ahead of FOMC Minutes?.

    * Chuck looks under the hood on India's idea.

    * Koos Jansen on Chinese Gold accumulation..

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 11-19-2015
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  • Safe Haven Buying

    * Home sales fall

    * Hawkish Fed members

    * RBNZ leak

    * Upbeat Aussie

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 03-23-2016
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  • China Buys A Huge Hunk Of Aussie Land!

    In This Issue.

    * Currencies are mixed today.

    * The busy week for data gets started today!

    * 3 ECB speakers out on the circuit today.

    * And BOC's Poloz to speak.

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 04-26-2016
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  • Hard Headed Traders!

    In This Issue.

    * Positive yield currencies get whacked!.

    * But currencies attempt to rebound today.

    * When will Markets admit they were wrong?

    * The Ukrainian Chicken Farm Moment"..

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 09-14-2016
    Filed under:
  • Chinese PMI Soars Higher!

    * Global growth hopes return!. * A$ gets double boost! * Gold pushes higher!. * More bad data for Japan!.

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 11-02-2016
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  • Keynesian Confusion

    Michael Lewitt is one of the most provocative writers I know. Her consistently gives me something to chew on with his monthly letter. How he comes up with all those quotes (usually from sources I have never read but should have) amazes me. He has a unique view of the markets as he run Collateralized Debt Obligation funds and really understand the nitty-gritty of the bond and credit markets.

    ...
  • The End of QE2: Major Policy Shift Ahead

    This week’s Outside the Box is from my friend David Galland, an interview he did for The Casey Report, and it represents a philosophical train of thought more in line with Austrian economics and libertarianism than my own. But if we only read what we already think, then how do we learn? It is only when your ideas are challenged and you must determine why the other guys are wrong and you are right, that you can either become more firm in your beliefs, or change. And much of what David says in this interview resonates. (I wrote about the end of QE2 a few weeks ago.)

    The guys at Casey are natural resources, commodities, and precious metals investors. Yet David argues that cash might be the wise thing now, after pounding the table for years on gold. He believes that the end of QE2 will be more important and dramatic than most think. That it is coming to an end I have no doubt, so it is important to think about what the effects, if any, will be. There are those who argue that we can live without it now. I argued (and still do) that we should have never had it. The unintended consequences are the ones I worry about. We just don’t know. It was a crazy experiment, with no understanding of what would really happen. But hoping for the best is not a strategy, so let’s think about it. David provides us with some different ways to look at the process.

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  • Does Unreal GDP Drive Our Policy Choices?

    I am back from Rob Arnott’s conference in Laguna Beach, and I must confess that if I had attended it before I wrote last week’s e-letter I might have had lower odds on the US political class solving the debt crisis, absent a real economic crisis forcing them to. There were several presentations that made the problems quite clear. It remains a tough issue.

    This week’s Outside the Box is a recent white paper by Rob, where he argues that the traditional way we look at GDP is flawed, because it overstates what is happening in the real, private part of the economy, which is the productive part. Government spending is either money collected from the private sector in the form of taxes or borrowed money that future generations must repay. While not likely to become a mainstream economic view, this is very useful for our own thinking about what constitutes productivity and investments. This is a short but powerful piece from one of America’s most honored economic writers.

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  • Greatest Moral Hazard, Says Paul McCulley, Is Austerity Here And Now

    The last Thoughts from the Frontline featured an interview of me by Kate Welling. I promised another interview she did with my friend Paul McCulley, who (warning) is a consummate Keynesian. For him (paraphrasing closely), prescribing austerity for the US is like putting an anexoric patient on a diet. While Paul and I are very good friends, we do not agree on what to do about the current morass. But this is Outside the Box, and the point is to have views that I don’t agree with. And Paul is nothing if not an articulate proponent of the neo-Keynesian view. The original publication of his interview in Kate’s letter drew some very pointed comments. Right up the OTB’s alley.

    Kate Welling is simply the best at doing interviews and teasing out controversy, but her work is hard to for the average person to access, as it is now just for institutional clients. I have convinced her to break out of her shell and offer it to the retail world. She is working on the “details,” such as price, etc., but in the meantime you can go to

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  • Zen Lessons in Market Analysis

    'Everything, including the market, is ultimately empty of a separate self. One market can only be understood and analyzed in the context of other markets and conditions. Supply and demand, in particular, should not be considered in isolation.'

    Long time Outside the Box readers are quite familiar with Dr. John Hussman, as he is a frequent choice for this column. But this week I think he has written one of his bests essays ever. He cleverly weaves in quotes from a Zen master who is his friend and gives us a very fresh look at market analysis. This is a thought piece and you should set aside some time to absorb the lessons. You will be well rewarded.

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  • The Paradox of Deleveraging

    I have often commented about the problem of personal savings. We worry about the lack of savings here in the US, but many do not understand that if everyone started to save 5% of there income immediately that it would seriously impact consumer spending, pushing the US into a recession. It is a paradox, as Paul McCulley points out, that what may be good for the individual may not be good for the collective country. And in this week's Outside the Box, good friend and this week's Maine fishing buddy Paul McCulley writes about another paradox called the Paradox of Deleveraging. This Paradox is at the heart of the credit crisis. Many of you will not like his conclusions, as it calls for the government to step into the breach created by the problem he describes. But as I often point out, the purpose of Outside the Box is to make us think about ideas which may not be in our usual sources of information. Paul is the Managing Director at PIMCO, the world's largest bond manager....
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