• Silver Miners Will Outperform In the Forthcoming Bull Run

    Despite the expectations of a rate hike by the Fed in December of 2016, silver has remained close to its highs (as shown in the chart below). After a stellar run, the white metal is consolidating near its highs, while anticipating its next imminent breakout...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-17-2016
  • Clinton & Trump Unveil Very Different Economic Plans

    Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New York billionaire Donald Trump both announced their major plans for the economy last week, if elected president in November. As you might expect, the two plans are very different. I will summarize both as we go along today, and you can draw your own conclusions.

    Before we get to that discussion, I want to bring to your attention the fact that the Atlanta Fed is forecasting a significant improvement in the US economy for the current 3Q. As you may recall, the Atlanta Fed produces a real-time estimate of the US economy which is called “GDPNow.” As of last Friday, the GDPNow is forecasting a jump to 3.5% in GDP in the 3Q.

    Keep in mind that US GDP was only 0.8% in the 1Q and 1.2% in the 2Q. A strong jump to 3.5% in the 3Q would be almost triple the anemic 1.2% in the 2Q. The obvious question is, what is the Fed seeing so far in this July to September quarter that is making it so confident? That’s what we’ll talk about just below.

    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 08-17-2016
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    Nature functions in cycles. Each 24-hour period can be divided into smaller cycles of morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The whole year can be divided into seasonal cycles. Similarly, one’s life can also be divided into cycles. Cycles are abundant...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-16-2016
  • Its The Season For Gold, Silver & Mining Stocks

    My analysis indicates that gold will be implemented in order to protect ‘global purchasing power’ and to minimize losses during our upcoming periods of ‘market shock’. It serves as a high-quality, liquid asset to be used whereas...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-12-2016
  • Natural Gas Is Lighter Than Air and Its Rising - I Smell Opportunity!

    During the last stock market top in 2007-2008 the price of natural gas completed a basing pattern (bottom) and broke out and had a massive rally. Will this happen again this time around? Based on the stock market stage analysis, market sentiment, and...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-11-2016
  • The Silver Lining In A stock Market Crash

    In their latest announcement, the FED attempted to prop up the stock market. They attempted to sound hawkish, however, the market paid not any heed to it. The FED annulment was reflected in a manner that lead the way to the dollar tanking and precious...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-10-2016
  • Another Strong Jobs Report, But Economy Remains Weak

    Last Friday’s unemployment report for July was significantly better than expected for the second month in a row. This has led many analysts to upgrade their forecasts for growth in the second half of this year. Yet as I will argue below, forecasters often put far too much weight on one or two monthly economic reports that can be revised significantly in subsequent months.

    While new jobs were substantially above the pre-report consensus in June and July, let us not forget that job creation in May was almost non-existent, the lowest in several years. The fact is, the US economy continues to limp along at less than 2% growth.

    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 08-09-2016
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  • Wake Up and Smell the Bull Trap!

    We are currently experiencing a “ Kondratiev Winter ” stage in this stock market which is at its’ “tipping” point. This is where nominal to incremental highs on the SPX can be exceeded by 2%, but, by no more than 4%. I am...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-09-2016
  • World Gone Backwards

    This week Patrick discusses another aspect of globalization, one that has a direct bearing on questions of equity. He explores the technologies that allowed globalization to take hold and the new technologies that are actually allowing production to “re-shore.” I mentioned that topic in passing last week, and it turned out that one of my readers heads an organization that is focused on assisting companies in re-shoring their production back to the US. He tells me that 250,000 jobs have already returned to the US. Patrick tells us an interesting story about how this trend will continue to unfold.

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 08-08-2016
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    Here is my chart of GLD during post-market trading today (Thursday, Aug 4th). I sent this chart to my followers alerting them of the next day’s market bias/trend and trade setup. If you don’t know what spike alerts are, let me explain briefly...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-07-2016

    The ‘blockchain’ technology, the very basis on which the bitcoins were created, is likely to become the backbone of the future digitization of money. The importance of the technology was asserted in the 16th Annual International Conference...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-05-2016
  • Is Gold A Safe Haven Or Risk At This Point?

    Gold has a “clear presence” to play in a world dominated with ‘global economic uncertainty” My analysis shows that gold will be implemented to protect ‘global purchasing power’ and minimize losses during our upcoming...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-04-2016
  • US Dollar Analysis And New Trading Opportunity

    Investor optimism in stocks is becoming more widespread. Last week’s NAAIM Exposure Index rose to 101, which is the highest level since December of 2013. The trading sentiment composite has moved to a “Sell Signal” and last week saw...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-02-2016
  • GDP Stunner: 2Q Growth Was Less Than Half of Forecast

    The Commerce Department reported last Friday that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the US, rose only 1.2% (annual rate) in the second quarter. That was less than half the pre-report consensus of 2.6%. This was one of the largest misses by forecasters in quite some time. I'll break down the report as we go along today. I will also discuss what the Fed's reaction to the disappointing GDP report is likely to be.

    At the end of today's letter, I will give you a link to a WALL STREET JOURNAL article on Sunday which claims that while Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton compromised national security by urging US technology companies to fund Russian research for military purposes. Assuming it’s true as the Journal claims, it will easily be the most serious scandal ever for Ms. Clinton. And it couldn't come at a better time!

    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 08-02-2016
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  • Economic Confidence Index plunges while stock market makes record highs

    The Gallup Poll has released an Economic Confidence Index which reflects the sentiment of Americans, as it pertains to the economy. As the stock market makes new record highs and the housing “bubble” market soars, one would expect that the...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-01-2016
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