Blogs

  • The Recession & What To Do About It

    The US economy has held up better than most analysts expected for the first part of this year. But it does look like economic growth will go negative for at least the next 2-3 quarters, meaning a mild recession is likely in the months ahead. Meanwhile, inflation is definitely on the rise, what with energy and food prices exploding. The obvious question is, what will the Fed do? This week, we investigate the economic outlook in detail for the next year or so, the trends in inflation and how the Fed may react. More importantly, the investment outlook for the next several years is one of modest returns at best, and the risks to the downside continue to increase. At the end, I have some ideas for how to invest successfully in this high risk environment....
  • Issue: 6/17/2008

    IPO's and New Issues TGH @ $19.84 (Textainer Group) provides worldwide inter modal container leasing with over 1.3 million containers and more than 130 locations. Revenues have accelerated 10%, 13%, 22% and 22% over the last four quarters. TGH came...
    Posted to The Stock Playbook by Dave Dispennette on 06-17-2008
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  • Calling Out The Fed...

    * TIC's look funny... * Germany's ZEW is weaker... * A note from the Washington Post! * Tons of data today... **Calling Out The Fed... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... Someone from the Washington Post is a Pfennig Reader (I think!), as there was a great article in the paper calling out the Fed on their "rate hike" rhetoric... I'll give you snippets of that, and a snippet from my friend, the Mogambo Guru, along with the usual currency talk, on this Terrific Tuesday... Ready, set, let's go! Front and Center this morning is the dollar getting sold all day yesterday, as the euro recovered all the way to 1.5515 in the overnight markets. Unfortunately, the single unit was stopped in its rally tracks by an awful printing of German Investor Confidence, as measured by the think tank ZEW... German Investor Confidence dropped to the lowest level in 15 years this month, as rising inflation is eating away at the economy. I don't expect this report to put too much a dent in the single unit's performance today, but for now it has slipped back below 1.55......
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 06-17-2008
  • Summer Breeze

    commentary from this week’s “Sectors and Styles Strategy Report”*: The past several weeks have witnessed the equity markets filled with many crosscurrents. As noted in the various portions of this week’s report, strength has emerged...
    Posted to Musing on the Markets by Vinny Catalano, CFA on 06-17-2008
  • The Road To Revulsion

    What does a bubble look like and how do they end? In this week's Outside the Box, James Montier of Societe Generale in London looks at not only the psychological analysis, but also at the propensity for commentators to continually proclaim the end of the problem and a resumption of business as usual. He includes a fascinating piece from Marc Faber documenting the various quotes about how well the economy was doing from 1928-32. This makes for fun, if a little sobering, reading. I think you will find this letter very interesting....
  • Fighting Inflation...

    * CPI increases... * Eurozone inflation increases too! * G-8 lets currencies slip by... * TIC Flows data today... **Fighting Inflation... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope you had a grand Father's Day... Mine was fabulous! And a great weather day too! Cards take 2 of 3 from the Phillies after getting royally spanked on Friday night! UGH! And I got to see my first ever Polo game on Saturday! I've seen 100's of water polo games, as son Andrew was a good player in High School, but never a Polo game on horses... Absolutely cool! OK... Friday was not a good day in the currencies as once again the dollar took the hammer and swung a mighty swing. The euro spent the day in the 1.53 handle, as more and more talk about the Fed fighting inflation took hold of the markets. I'm still resisting this rhetoric by the Fed, and believe that eventually the markets will come to the realization that the Fed is simply "talking the talk" and are unwilling to "walk the walk"......
  • Sectors and Styles Strategy Report: June 16, 2008

    excerpts from this week’s report: Model Growth Portfolio (MGP) “The adage, “all good things must come to an end” applied to last week’s Model Growth Portfolio’s (MGP) performance as poor global markets’ performance...
    Posted to Musing on the Markets by Vinny Catalano, CFA on 06-16-2008
  • Issue: 6/16/2008

    Growth Stocks GEOI @ $20.91 (Georesources) is engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the Southwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountains and Williston Basin. Revenues have averaged triple digit growth over the last few quarters and earnings...
    Posted to The Stock Playbook by Dave Dispennette on 06-15-2008
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  • Whip Inflation Now

    President Nixon instated price controls on the 15th of August, 1971. Inflation was a little over 4% at the time. Price controls manifestly did not work (resulting in shortages of all sorts and a deep recession) and were rescinded a few years later. President Ford went to Congress with programs to fight inflation that was running closer to 10% in October of 1974, with a speech entitled "Whip Inflation Now" (WIN). He famously urged Americans to wear "WIN" buttons. That policy too was less than effective, and the buttons, in a history replete with silly gestures by governments, should stand on anyone's top ten list of such silly gestures. This week we look at the cost of what could be a renewed effort to Whip Inflation Now, not just here but in countries worldwide. Will Trichet in Europe raise rates even as the European economy seems to be slowing down? If you think inflation is bad in the US and Europe, take a peek at Asia. And I ask, "What will Ben do?" It should make for an interesting letter....
  • Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric...

    * More dollar strength... * Retail Sales surprise... * SARB raises rates! * Gold on the slippery slope... **Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It will be a Fantastico Friday (Hopefully) for the boys and girls in the St. Louis office, as we head to Busch Stadium tonight for a Cardinals baseball game... We even have a special guest that will be with us, so party on Wayne... Party on Garth! Well... Things went a little crazy on the desk while I was away yesterday... When I returned home last night, I had a ton of emails from the Big Boss, Frank Trotter, and that's usually a sign that things didn't go well! Frank plays hockey on Friday mornings, and said he will call me to bring me up to date on his way to hockey......
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 06-13-2008
  • New Investment Theme Unveiled!

    A NEW INVESTMENT THEME FOR YOU TODAY . Quiet, don’t tell anyone about this new theme until you get invested. Anyway, finding a successful theme early on, before the crowd finds it, is one of many different ways to profitable investing in the stock...
  • Quotable Quotes: Lucky Day

    What else on Friday the 13 th ? “I think we consider too much the good luck of the early bird and not enough the bad luck of the early worm.” Franklin D. Roosevelt “I'm a lucky guy and I'm happy to be with the Yankees. And I...
    Posted to Musing on the Markets by Vinny Catalano, CFA on 06-13-2008
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  • The Geopolitics Of China

    No matter where in the world I am, in South Africa, in Europe, in La Jolla, there's one question I get asked over and over, "What about China?" And small wonder. The increasing impact of China in the last generation is just staggering and seemingly accelerating every day. If you're in the market for oil, minerals, arable land, equities or debt, you're bidding against Chinese government-sponsored entities with a $1 trillion warchest. And the list of markets where China is a key player grows every day. Bottom line: whether you're filling up your gas tank or trading credit default swaps, China's decisions impact your pocket book....
  • Dollar Receives Some Stimulus...

    * Dollar receives some stimulus... * G8 to support $ over the weekend... * India surprises with a rate increase... * BOJ likely to keep rates unchanged... **Dollar receives some stimulus..... Good day... We had a pretty calm day in the markets yesterday as the dollar drifted lower vs. most of the major currencies. But when the Europeans picked up the trading overnight they all but wiped out any advances the currencies had made and the dollar is now sitting slightly higher than it was trading at this time yesterday morning. But I will get to that later; let me start this morning's Pfennig off with some comments Chuck left me on the markets as he signed off his computer last night: "OK... So quite a few of you liked my conspiracy theories yesterday, and even a few had one of their own! This whole mess of Bernanke and Paulson finally sitting up and taking notice in June is just too much for me. I think there's got to be a story here that we don't know about... Yet!...
  • Sell the Rallies? Buy the Dips? An "Inflection Day" Rally Update

    There is little doubt that many counterbalancing forces are at work in today’s equity markets. The bulls argue that March 17 (“Inflection Day” – see prior blog postings) was the turning point for the longer-term bull market correction...