Blogs

  • The Stock Playbook 11/04/08

    The market rose on relief that the Presidential election is close to being over, while others are anticipating a year end rally and buying now to be sure they don't miss out on its start. We're not so sure, so we'll wait to see how this week...
    Posted to The Stock Playbook by Dave Dispennette on 11-04-2008
  • The Democrats' Plan To Highjack Your 401(k)

    Well, election day is upon us. While the mainstream media would have us believe that the results are a foregone conclusion in Obama's favor, recent polls have indicated a narrowing of his lead over McCain in some battleground states. Obviously, we'll all just have to wait and see how the votes turn out. In the meantime, I think it's important that we conservatives notice some of the trial balloons that are being floated by the Democratic leadership. One recent proposal that would eliminate the favorable tax treatment of 401(k) plans shows us that, no matter how the election turns out, we have plenty to fear from the liberals who are already in office....
  • A Sea Change for the Consumer?

    *****Happy Halloween *****A Sea Change for the Consumer? *****Chesapeake’s $2.85 Billion Surprise *****The rally that started Tuesday and continued on Thursday might have investors feeling like the worst is past. But I can’t help but think...
    Posted to Growth Report by Ian Wyatt on 11-04-2008
  • Election Day!

    * The winner is... Deflation! * Trading theme in place... * RBA cuts rates 75 BPS! * Manufacturing collapses! ** Election Day! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's Election Day! One more day of all that he said, she said, no I didn't, yes you did, aggravating election advertising! That's it! We're finally finished with all of it! Thank Goodness it's Election Day! TGIED! This will be the end of another of the things that's keeping the fundamentals in the back of the classroom. All we'll have left is the credit squeeze... Unfortunately though I feel like we're going to have to live with that one for some time to come! There are signs that things are loosening up, but it's a far cry from what should be considered as "normal" in the lending arena! As long as the credit squeeze remains in place and on the minds of traders & investors everywhere, we're stuck with the Trading Theme of 2008... Well, let's see, it didn't come into play until late July, so it should be called the Trading Theme of late 2008 and 2009....
  • Patience is still a virtue

    Economics This Week’s Data September construction spending fell .3% versus expectations of a .8% decline; however, the July and August reports were revised down. The Institute for Supply Management reported its October manufacturing index at 38...
  • An Overbought Pause

    As delightful as the rally has been, a key super short-term technical indicator, Slow Stochastics, is registering an overbought reading (above 80) and a cause for a pause. As the accompanying chart* shows, while the near-term indicators, Momentum and...
  • The Stock Playbook 11/3/08

    The market ended the calmest session in recent memory with a narrowly mixed performance Monday as investors largely looked past a weak reading on the manufacturing sector and focused on the election. The Dow fell 5.18, or 0.06 percent, to 9,319.83, after...
    Posted to The Stock Playbook by Dave Dispennette on 11-04-2008
  • Two Little-Noted Features Of The Markets And The Economy

    This week I have a very special Outside the Box for you. Peter Bernstein is recognized as one of the more brilliant and insightful analysts of our times. At 89, he has been writing prescient material longer than most of us "young guys" (I am 59, and hope I am still writing at 89, or even able to write!) have been even marginally in the markets. His Economics and Portfolio Strategy Letter is read by the true cognoscenti of the investment world. He has given me permission to reproduce his latest letter in which he offers two insights. Rather than give you some teaser copy, why don't you just jump in a read. And trust me, anything that Peter writes is worth reading more than a few times....
  • Rate Cut Week...

    * Mixed bag o' data... * Trading theme in place... * election tomorrow... * Consumer Spending collapses! ** Rate Cut Week... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Welcome to November! For almost 20 years, November was my least favorite month, cold gray days, dead looking trees, bad memories of the month, and all that... But I just don't get all involved in that stuff anymore, as my different outlook on life tells me that every day is a great day, and months just contain great days! OK... On Friday, we saw more and more of the same trading theme, and in the overnight markets last night, more and more of it again! And Carry Trades are back for the moment anyway, as stocks rebounded late in the week to end the month with a brighter outlook than they had earlier in the month. But, in my view from the cheap seats, this stock rebound is much like what they call in the markets, a dead cat bounce, (OK no animals were hurt here!) which means... That stocks are going nowhere, but bounces can still happen. I say that stocks are going nowhere, and I'm not even your last choice as a stock jockey... I just survey the economic horizon and see a deeper recession than we are currently experiencing, and a "spent" Consumer, which is going to lead to awful earnings for Corporations, and thus stocks not going anywhere......
  • Morning Call-11/3/08

    Economics This Week’s Data Other Putting current bank failures in perspective: http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/fdic-bank-failures.html Update on credit crisis indicators: http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/credit-crisis-indicators...
  • 11/1/08-The Closing Bell

    The Closing Bell 11/1/08 Statistical Summary Current Economic Forecast 2007 Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product: 2.0- 2.5% Inflation: 2 - 2.5 % Growth in Corporate Profits: 6-8% 2008 (revised-again) Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP): -1.0...
    Posted to Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing by Steve Cook on 11-01-2008
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  • Electing the Janitor-in-Chief

    This week we survey the economic landscape that the new president will inherit. It is a polite understatement to say that he will be getting a serious mess. In reality, the US goes to the polls this next Tuesday to elect a Janitor-in-Chief. He will face a task that rivals that of Hercules in cleaning out the Stygian stables (legendary huge stables that had not been mucked out for ten years). However, there are no convenient rivers at hand for a probable President Obama to redirect that will quickly be able to clean out the mess left in the stables of our economy. This will indeed be an Herculean task and one that will take most of the first term of the next administration. So, let's look at what will face the next president. It should make for an interesting, even if not optimistic, letter....
  • The Stock Playbook 10/31/08

    The market closed out a horrendous October, its worst month in 21 years, with an advance Friday as more investors took chances on stocks turned into bargains by waves of intense selling. The advance, which gave the market its first back-to-back gains...
    Posted to The Stock Playbook by Dave Dispennette on 10-31-2008
  • Why Most Retirement Investment Plans Are Wrong—Part II

    Traditional investment strategies do not work for most retirement investment plans. Those who are in or saving for retirement often fail to meet their goals by following these strategies. There are better ways to manage a portfolio for retirement that...
    Posted to Retirement Watch by Bob Carlson on 10-31-2008
  • GDP Goes Negative...

    * Currency rally fizzles out... * Bank of Japan cuts rates... * Tracking David Walker... * A major shift change on spending... ** GDP Goes Negative... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Happy Halloween Friday to boot! Boy, to be a kid again, and have what is forecast as a 70 degree day on a Friday for Halloween! We've been so busy at the Butler house that we didn't even decorate our front yard with Halloween stuff this year. UGH! But, that's OK, I guess, Alex is older now, and little Delaney Grace would probably freak out with the ghost that would fly across the front of our house, etc. Well... The fog that was lifted from the markets came back with a vengeance yesterday, and once again it was the deep, dark, dangerous U.S. economy leading the charge. 3rd QTR GDP printed yesterday and even though it was forecast to be negative, when it actually printed negative, the trading theme returned. 3rd QTR GDP goes negative (and if you throw in inflation for good measure growth was REALLY negative!) and the dollar rallies... It's the trading theme of the decade! (Ok, I exaggerate a bit there, as it has only been in place for 3 months now!)...