Blogs

  • Nothing comes out of the G20 meeting...

    * G20 largely a non-event... * Pound moves up... * Brazil falls on sell off of emerging markets... * Japan enters recession... ** Nothing comes out of the G20 meeting... Good day...and welcome back to another work week. I driving into work this morning and started thinking about the growing number of people who no longer have jobs to report to. And the problems are no longer just concentrated on the manufacturing sector. I was shocked at the long list of retail stores which are planning to shut down after the holiday season. The situation in the US economy continues to deteriorate, and unfortunately things are going to get much worse here in the US before they turn around. On that cheery note, I'll get started....
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 11-17-2008
  • Morning Call-11/17/08

    Economics This Week’s Data Other The folly of fiscal stimulus: http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2008/11/nouriel_roubini_and_the_folly.html A remedy for the auto industry (to which I would add--fire management): http://www.washingtonpost...
  • The Economy Gets a Margin Call

    As long-time readers know, my daughter Tiffani and I are interviewing millionaires for a book we will be writing called Eavesdropping on Millionaires. This has been one of the more personally impacting projects of my life, as the stories we hear are so very provocative. I hope we can transfer to readers of the book at least half of the impact we are personally experiencing. But at the end of each interview, we let the interviewee ask me questions. Often, they are along the line of 'Do you really think we will Muddle Through?' Sometimes they ask in need of assurance and sometimes they simply think that my stance is somewhat naïve. It is something of an irony that I am called a perma-bear in some circles and a Pollyanna in others. The Muddle Through middle has been lonely of late. So, this week I take another look at my Muddle Through stance. We look at some of the recent data on unemployment and retail sales, think about the implications of a falling trade deficit and a rising US government deficit, speculate about the potential for a serious stock market rally, and also comment on the potential for a GM bailout. There is a lot to cover, so let's jump right in. ...
  • The Closing Bell-11/15/08

    The Closing Bell 11/15/08 Statistical Summary Current Economic Forecast 2007 Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product: 2.0- 2.5% Inflation: 2 - 2.5 % Growth in Corporate Profits: 6-8% 2008 (revised-again) Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP): -1.0...
    Posted to Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing by Steve Cook on 11-15-2008
  • The Stock Playbook 11/14/08

    The market ended a turbulent week with another astonishing show of volatility Friday, with stocks plunging, recovering and then plunging again as investors absorbed another wave of downbeat economic news. The Dow fell 337.93, or 3.82 percent, to 8,497...
    Posted to The Stock Playbook by Dave Dispennette on 11-14-2008
  • Data shows just how bad things are...

    * Data shows just how bad things are... * Trade deficits narrow... * EU confirms they are in a recession... * RBA intervening again... ** Data shows just how bad things are... Good day... Chuck asked me to go ahead and write the Pfennig this morning, but I got a late start, so this one will be short. We finally had some data releases here in the US which look to steer the markets, so I'll just get right to it. The dollar continued to strengthen yesterday after another round of bad weekly employment figures. Initial jobless claims increased to 516k during the first week of November, and last weeks numbers were revised up to 484k. The employment picture continues to darken here in the US, and it doesn't look like it will improve any time soon. This is just what the US consumers don't need right now. Not only are most consumers living paycheck to paycheck, but now many of those paychecks are being ripped out of their hands....
  • Another 200 points up and we start taking profits

    Economics This Week’s Data October retail sales were reported down 2.8% versus estimates of a 2.4% decline. http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse-in-october.html Other protectionism (Free trade is a major positive for...
  • The Stock Playbook 11/13/08

    The market dove to new lows for the year on a stream of negative economic and corporate news before staging an abrupt turnaround on Thursday, muscling the Dow 552.59 points higher, or 6.67 percent, to 8,835.25, after falling as low as 7,965.42 and rising...
    Posted to The Stock Playbook by Dave Dispennette on 11-13-2008
  • Obama's Challenge

    With the election of a new US President, everyone is focused on the 'First 100 Days.' How Obama transitions into the presidency impacts not just the U.S. but the entire global system. What happens to U.S. relations with Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan? What's going to happen at Treasury and to all the programs addressing the financial crisis? What's going to emerge from the next G20 summit? You need to read the analysis below, written by my good friend George Friedman at Stratfor. He details the immediate issues facing the president-elect, including one of the stickiest: Europe's desire for a global banking regulatory regimen. How will Obama respond to European pressure? George has built his company Stratfor and its reputation on forecasting the future, and I'm amazed at how often he's right -- on broad themes and specific events....
  • Association for Investor Awareness - Week of 11/13/2008

    In This Issue:

    How Will The Obama Presidency
    Affect The Investment Markets?

    We had another roller coaster ride on Wall Street last week. Although the first day wasn't exciting, two others gave us a 553 point surge. On the two remaining days, the market plunged 930 points. When the shouting stopped on Friday afternoon, the Dow and the Nasdaq were down 4.1% and 4.3% respectively.

    The latest decline probably put the kybosh on the mid-cycle rally that appeared to be starting the week earlier, but it's not yet certain. As chaotic as the markets have been over the past two weeks, stocks were above where they started. Bear market rebounds often resemble walking up a sand dune where you move two steps forward and you slide back one. Sometimes it's hard to see if you're making progress.

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week stocks fell 73.3% and 176.6%, which was well under half the rate we saw several days ago. Perhaps the bear is running out of steam and stock prices will bounce back up again. The odds seem good, but bear rallies are of little use to value investors who benefit from lower prices. 

    ...
  • Paulson throws the markets a curve...

    * Paulson throws the markets a curve... * Goldman says to buy the yen... * RBA intervenes to protect the AUD$... * China provides support to commodities... ** Paulson throws the markets a curve... Good day... Chuck is out today, so I get the opportunity to share some of my thoughts on the markets. As many of you know, I spent most of last week in Washington DC giving presentations at the Money Show. On the way to the hotel, the cab driver who had noticed my EverBank luggage tag asked if I was a banker. He said he had seen a lot of us lately. I guess I was one of the few bankers flying into Washington DC who wasn't heading over to the Treasury Dept. to get some of the cheap money they are passing out. I had a great trip to Washington and really enjoyed the opportunity to spread the word about EverBank and the protection that portfolio diversification provides. I don't think Treasury Secretary Paulson is having as good a time as I did in the nation's capital. When he came down from NY a couple years ago to take over the Treasury, he was Wall Street's best paid CEO and looked to cap his career with a high-profile sojourn in public service. But his credibility has really taken a hit over the past year, and his update before congress yesterday didn't quite go as everyone expected. Chuck left me the following to share with readers this morning....
  • Another test seems to be on the way

    Economics This Week’s Data The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers down 1% versus the prior week and up only .4% versus the comparable period in 2007. International trade heads lower: http://econompicdata...
  • The Stock Playbook 11/12/08

    The market fell for the third straight session Wednesday as investors absorbed another series of dismal corporate reports and news that the government won't buy banks' soured mortgage assets after all. The Dow shed 411.30, or 4.73 percent, to...
    Posted to The Stock Playbook by Dave Dispennette on 11-13-2008
  • For Whom The Deep Oversold Bell Tolls (again)

    Whatever the fundamental rationale may be – November 15th and hedge fund redemptions; capital gains sales in anticipation of tax increases next year; fears of a global recession; concerns re FAS 140 and QSPEs (more on this one in a future posting...
  • The Junk Yard Dog Bites!

    * The dollar rallies big time! * A dollar conspiracy? * Bailing out the automakers? * Weathering the storm in N.Z.? ** The Junk Yard Dog Bites! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, the Junk Yard Dog got a hold of the euro yesterday, and even though the U.S. Banks, thus the majority of currency desks, were observing Veteran's Day, the move down in currencies VS the dollar, led by the euro, was drastic! The Junk Yard Dog I'm talking about is Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the Euro group... I stopped the euro in its tracks from its nascent rise in the past month, by saying the "euro's recent rise was undesirable"... He also deep sixed the euro, and thus all the currencies save yen, by saying he "didn't see any reason there couldn't be more rate cuts by the ECB"... (the ECB is of course the European Central Bank) Well... These two comments tore through any gains the currencies had mounted VS the dollar in recent weeks, like a Junk Yard Dog tears though some raw meat! It was a knife to the euro's heart......