Blogs

  • Association for Investor Awareness - Week of 12/11/2008

    In This Issue:

    The Long-Awaited Bear Rally May Be Starting
    Although Weak, Some Hopeful Economic Signs Are Emerging
    Credit Is Slowly Opening Up Again
    If Fear Subsides, The Outlook Will Improve Immediately
    A Recovery Will Bring Unwelcome Inflation
    The Bottom Line This Week

    As we reported in our previous issue, the sharp stock market advance over the Thanksgiving holiday came to a crashing end on December 1. However, prices have been stronger since then. Although the gains weren't enough to fully erase the earlier plunge, the Dow and the Nasdaq managed to end last week down just 2.2% and 1.7% respectively. From Monday to Wednesday of the current week, the market managed to make some additional gains.

    It's significant that the price increases occurred while more bad economic news was breaking. A manufacturing decline, an auto sales plunge, and more job losses should have pushed stocks down several more notches. The fact that investors largely ignored the negatives may indicate that the bear market is close to a bottom.

    ...
  • A HUGE Currency Rally!

    * Another currency rally.... * SNB cuts another 50 BPS! * Budget Deficit continues to widen! * Treasury yields go south for the winter! ** A HUGE Currency Rally! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's been quite the rally this week in the currencies led by the euro, which is like old times, eh? The Big Dog on the porch finally gets to stretch its legs and chase the dollar down the street! It's been a long time since we've seen this go on for more than a day. Yes, we've seen one day spikes, and even two day rallies turn into false dawns, but this one has lasted about a week now. Ever since last Friday's awful Jobs Jamboree, the tide has turned, and the Trading Theme that has held the currencies in a full nelson since the end of July, could very well be on the way out the door. I said that about the Trading Theme earlier this week, so I just wanted to repeat that to emphasize the point!...
  • One Way To Handle This Bear Market

    SCHWARTZ STRATEGY DETAILED . The Principle of Proper Money Managment . Especially important during a bear market. I know many readers aren’t prepared to keep jumping in and out of the stock market, trading in other words, each time the stock market...
  • Morning Call - 12/11/08

    Economics This Week’s Data October wholesale inventories fell 1.1% versus expectations of a .2% decline; as aggressively as managements are cutting inventories, it was not enough because wholesale sales dropped 4.1%, driving up the wholesale inventory...
  • The Stock Playbook 12/10/08

    The market rose moderately as investors saw rebounding prices for gold and commodity prices as a reason to snap up energy and materials stocks. The Dow rose 70.09, or 0.81 percent, to 8,761.42. The S&P 500 rose 10.57, or 1.19 percent, to 899.24, and...
    Posted to The Stock Playbook by Dave Dispennette on 12-10-2008
  • A Bailout For The Big 3...

    * Another currency rally.... * Bank of Canada cuts 75 BPS! * A Santa rally? * What Asia thinks... ** A Bailout For The Big 3... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! We didn't get that snow I talked about yesterday, I guess the milk and bread on the grocery store shelves are safe today! Had to get "all dressed up" last night for a function that brought together a ton of old Mark Twain Bank people, among others. It was great, but I stood for two hours and I'm paying for it this morning... UGH! OK... Another day of "healing" for the currencies, as the 1.29 handle was achieved and held on to in the overnight markets. Slowly... Like sand through the hourglass, these are the days of currency healing! HA! That show, Days of our Lives, was burned into my brain as a kid, as it was my mother's fave soap....
  • Stocks at an important short term techincal level

    Economics This Week’s Data The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers down .8% versus the prior week and up a slight .4% on a year over year basis. Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain...
    Posted to Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing by Steve Cook on 12-10-2008
  • The Stock Playbook 12/9/08

    The market fell on Tuesday as profit warnings from FedEx and others prompted investors to retrench after two days of big gains, while unprecedented demand for the safety of government securities signaled fear remains a dominant force in the market. The...
    Posted to The Stock Playbook by Dave Dispennette on 12-09-2008
  • The Recession & More Government Bailouts

    Well, the 'R' Word (recession) can now be officially used to describe the US economy since the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared that we have been in a recession since December of 2007. Considering the back-dated nature of NBER's announcement, we find ourselves in the midst of the third longest recession since the Great Depression, with no end yet in sight. No wonder the Treasury and Fed are pulling out all of the stops to bail out the economy. This week, I'm going to discuss the current bleak economic picture, the Fed's latest bailout and the possible long-term consequences of the Fed's printing money....
  • Spending More Money...

    * Turn back the clocks to 1950... * Currencies rally on the day... * Bank of Canada to cut rates today... * Fed Funds to zero? ** Spending More Money... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's raining like cats and dogs outside, and that rain is supposed to turn to snow tonight, so we've got that going for us! Always love that rain to snow bit, as it puts a nice layer of ice under the snow! Well... It looks like the new president wants to spend more money... Yes, President-elect Obama, presented his economic plan yesterday, and before doing so, issued a warning that the economy is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. His plan calls for a pledge to spend the most on infrastructure since the 1950's... Now, let me say this... The Big Boss, Frank Trotter, and I talk about this all the time... To spend money on Financial Institutions and things that don't get used more than once like bullets and bombs, isn't our "fave" way to spend money... But building something that could be used over and over again, well, that makes sense... However, this spending could be coming at the absolute most awful timing, as the Deficits are exploding in front of our eyes, and it certainly isn't as appealing as watching the fireworks display in Vancouver!...
  • Time to start selling

    Economics This Week’s Data Other The argument for lower corporate tax rates: http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/12/wake-up-call-to-washington-cut.html Politics Domestic International War Against Radical Islam The Market Technical An update on money...
    Posted to Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing by Steve Cook on 12-09-2008
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  • A Short-term Breather

    A number of market technicians have pointed to the S&P 500 and its approach to its 50 day moving average (see accompanying chart). While such levels have a spotty predictive track record, it does seem likely that stocks are poised to take a breather...
    Posted to Musing on the Markets by Vinny Catalano, CFA on 12-09-2008
    Filed under:
  • The Stock Playbook 12/8/08

    The market shot higher for a second straight session Monday as investors bet that President-elect Barack Obama's plans to increase spending on public works projects will help lift the economy back to health. The rally, which gave the Dow a two-day...
    Posted to The Stock Playbook by Dave Dispennette on 12-08-2008
  • Dow 5,000 Redux

    What is fair value for stocks? Are they now cheap? You can certainly make that argument by comparing valuations based on past performance. But repeat after me, 'Past performance is not indicative of future returns.' The investment climate of today is almost certainly going to be quite different than that of the 80's and 90's. Thus, to expect stocks to repeat the performance of the last bull market in a climate of government intervention, deleveraging and increased regulations may not be realistic? This week Bill Gross, the Managing Director of PIMCO (and one of my favorite analysts) moves away from his familiar neighborhood of bonds and offers a few thoughts on stock market valuations. This is not a lengthy read, but it is one you might want to read twice, as the concepts are important. And not just for stocks but for investments of all types. I trust you will enjoy this week's Outside the Box....
  • The Worst Jobs Report Since 1974!

    * Will -533K turn to -600K? * A glimmer of light brings back risk takers... * Another week of data... * Fedspeak today... ** The Worst Jobs Report Since 1974! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a Whirlwind Weekend for your truly, as it came and went, I did a ton of stuff, but no rest, and this morning, I was reminded that I had not gotten any rest! UGH! But! It was all fun! A great time in Jacksonville at the Headquarters' version of a Holiday Party... It was great to see the folks there that I know. OK... Did you see the rot on labor's vine Friday? The Jobs Jamboree was very unkind to many, with a 533K jobs lost in November. That number was the worst figure since 1974! The tally of 1.9 million jobs lost this year surpasses the losses of the past two recessions, and according to the Wall Street Journal, signals that the current downturn could be the worst since the years immediately following World War II....