John Mauldin

  • When the Future Becomes Today

    First, I want to express my shock and quiet despair over the events in Dallas this weekend. The shock comes from this actually happening in Dallas. If anything, Dallas police are accommodating and work with the community as well as any police force in the country. But this event is a reminder that tragedies don’t just happen somewhere else. All it takes is one or two lone actors, and the world of somewhere else lands on your doorstep. This sad spectacle is part and parcel of what we will be discussing today: a world where common sense and reasonable discourse are breaking down, leaving us with social outcomes that only a few years ago would have seemed impossible. As Buffalo Springfield sang, “There’s something happening here; what it is ain’t exactly clear.”

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 07-12-2016
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  • The Fed Prepares to Dive

    This week’s letter has two parts. The first deals with some of the practical aspects of negative rates and what the Fed is really signaling. The second part, which is somewhat philosophical, deals with why the Fed will institute negative rates during the next recession. This letter is longer than usual, but I think it’s important to understand why we will see negative rates in the world’s reserve currency (and the currency in which most global trade is conducted). This policy trend is truly a foray into unexplored territory.

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 02-29-2016
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  • Welcome to the Pale Gray Dot

    The aging of the world’s population is already having profound effects on the global economy, and it is only getting started. Today we’ll consider those changes, drawing partly from research conducted by the intrepid volunteers for the demographics chapter of my new book.

    (This letter will print a bit longer because of the large number of charts and graphics. And I apologize for the late delivery of what is supposed to be a weekend letter. I was somewhat distracted by life. My intention is to be better in the future.)

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 04-26-2016
  • Life on the Edge, Continued

    At the conclusion of my conference yesterday, I did a number of interviews and then made my way a few miles home, collapsed into my favorite chair, and thought back over the myriad of ideas, the whirlwind of friends, and the just general all-around fabulous time I had experienced over the past four days.

  • Hot Summer Economic Weirdness

    As I wrote last month, the protected/unprotected schism increasingly drives both politics and economics. Maybe it has always driven them, and we’re just now recognizing it. In either case, we find ourselves in increasingly weird circumstances. I certainly see parallels with the 1930s. And a number of those circumstances will collide with one another over the next few months.

    My intention this week had been to revisit some of the powerful ideas that were discussed at my Strategic Investment Conference two weeks ago. But events are looming in Europe that absolutely demand our attention. The powerful macroeconomic and investing ideas will still be there next week – and at the end of today’s letter I will discuss an informal poll I’ve conducted on the timing of the next recession.

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 06-16-2016
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  • Meaty Beaty Big and Bouncy

    Introduction Today's Outside the Box is by James Montier of Dresdner Kleinwort. Quite frankly, the research that James discusses surprised me. In his article "Meaty beaty big and bouncy," James dispels what he calls an urban myth that small...
  • The Limitations and Necessity of Naval Power

    Introduction In this week's Special Edition of Outside the Box, Stratfor President George Friedman discusses the historical role of the U.S. Navy over the course of previous conflicts as well as what type of a role it might play in the future. Just...
  • Grim Reality

    Introduction As I glanced over at the TV in my office this morning, the latest news on the ticker wire was that American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (AHM) is trading down over 16%. While the company is not of any particular importance to me, it spurred...
  • How to Make Big Money: 11 Time-Tested Strategies

    Introduction This week's Outside the Box will be one of the longer ones that have been featured, even despite the current length being approximately half of what it originally was. Now that's no cause for alarm, yet rather a measure of how important...
  • Geopolitics and the U.S. Spoiling Attack

    Introduction This week's special edition Outside the Box is what I would call one of the more "philosophical" pieces by Stratfor President George Friedman...let me explain. In his article "Geopolitics and the U.S. Spoiling Attack,"...
  • MACRO-MARKETS: Gold Trading Boot Camp

    Introduction I probably get as many questions about gold as I do any subject. The fascination with the yellow metal permeates all levels of investors, and opinions can be quite strong. But few are more informed than those of good friend and trader extraordinaire...
  • Weapons of Economic Misdirection

    Patrick and Robert co-edit our Macro Growth & Income Alert premium service. As I’ve explained before, for regulatory reasons (since I am registered) I do not discuss specific stocks or other securities in this letter, tending instead to stick to macroeconomic and other big-picture concepts. Patrick and Robert face no such limitations, so after we discuss the macro world, I will drop off and they will talk about how to turn our macro views into real-world investment ideas. I am proud of the team we have assembled here at Mauldin Economics and appreciate the hard work and experience they bring to our readers.

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 08-26-2016
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  • Negative Rates Nail Savers

    Before we jump in, I want to note that economic chaos is not my only concern. We face a whole different kind of chaos on the geopolitical front. To a considerable degree it overlaps with the economic problems I’ll discuss today. George Friedman has been calling the Eurasian landmass a “cradle of disorder.” It’s home to 5 billion people, and it’s floundering in a sea of accelerating crises.

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 09-14-2016
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  • Forecasting with Friends

    In some ways, I think it’s just entertainment. You might compare our prognosticating to what happens with NFL football. For weeks before the Super Bowl, we devoted fans will spend hours speculating on the game’s every detail. We’ll dissect the rosters, talk about each team’s strengths and weaknesses, debate game plans, and so on. Is any of this ritual necessary or useful? No, but it extends the experience and we enjoy it.

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 01-19-2017
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